TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2399. Tazmanian
2:14 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
whats new with 96L and 97L update me thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
2398. Patrap
4:13 PM CDT on September 23, 2007

GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
94L
Link

GOM Visible Loop
94L

Link
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2396. extreme236
9:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: wxguru1 at 9:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Either JP or extreme this morning said the center was moving into the Gulf, guessing it must have backtracked.


thats the way it seemed..TWC said it was so I thought they could get something right..I guess the navy doenst agree
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2395. groundman
9:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks extreme236 re the the ULH, and since everyone else is posting their menu and MADE me HUNGRY!! Maccaroni salad, with fresh tomatoes, mushrooms, mozzarella cheese chunks, and bacon ranch dressing!
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2393. beell
9:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94l
The upper ridge across the cent GOM has been making slow progress towards the west-moving the ULL west and bringing moisture with it.
(yo, Patrap)
The higher 30/40 kt shear values are also retreating west. Excellent anticyclonic flow above the Yucatan. The lower/mid level steering is SE to NW roughly.
A couple of good reasons to keep watching anyway. It has never and it still don't look like much now.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16651
2392. extreme236
9:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
according to the navy site the center isnt off the yucatan yet...so technically, high shear isnt effecting 94L wx
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2390. LesterNessman
8:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Which of the current Invests will turn into the first named storm?
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2389. extreme236
9:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: wxguru1 at 9:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

You sure changed your tune extreme since you were the one that told me I had no idea what I was talking about. And there is 20-40kts of shear all over and to the west of that system. That is why there is no organized convection and any that does forms races off to the north at 40kts.


I NEVER told you that you had no idea what you were talking about...stop making things up...I said that the 40kt shear was not effecting the center AT THAT TIME...big difference in 8 hours
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2387. mississippiwx23
9:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
No hate on us because they have realized it now. The shear was forecasted by the models on Friday, its not much of a surprise.
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2385. VAbeachhurricanes
9:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
are they trying to get a floater on 96L?
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2384. extreme236
9:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: wxguru1 at 9:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Wow! I mentioned this morning around 9am that 94L would be impacted by high shear over and to the west of it through its life span and I got told I had no idea what I was talking about. NHC was saying it was a great evironment for development. Of course they dropped that wording by 11am TWO and cancelled the recon.

So anyway, I have seen two other posts about shear impacting 94L in the last 20 minutes, where is the hate on them?


well its a mix...there is some high shear and soem low shear over the system...
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2383. Patrap
4:01 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
The Northern Lights Have NO bearing on Tropical Activity..The Forces that Produce the Auroral Displays are well removed from any Low level Stratospheric processes. They are Electromagnetic interacions of the Earths Poles and the Suns Solar wind. There is ZERO evidence of a relation..Period
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2381. extreme236
9:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: groundman at 9:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 8:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 8:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

96L is ingrid all over again. 97L is the one to watch imo

96L has a ULH over it unlike ingrid...dont know what your talking about


Is that the anticyclone? What makes it look like it's turning the wrong way in some of the sat views?


Yes, an ULH is an anticyclone
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2380. cirrocumulus
8:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
louisianaboy444: It should be interesting because it seems as though some models are suggesting 94 will meander. This will give it time to strenthen before landfall. Ever since the early rains in Southern California, the patterns have changed. There is evidence of more storm activity with the recent flareup of the northern lights. The original storm was in L.A. with the most rain in a long while.
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2379. Patrap
3:57 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
94L is a Tropical Moisture Pump as it is..
GOM Infrared Loop

Link

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2378. groundman
8:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 8:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 8:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

96L is ingrid all over again. 97L is the one to watch imo

96L has a ULH over it unlike ingrid...dont know what your talking about


Is that the anticyclone? What makes it look like it's turning the wrong way in some of the sat views?
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2377. mississippiwx23
8:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94l does not have much to it right now. The area of broad low pressure is just off the northern yucatan with no convection. The convection to the north is racing north and shouldnt develop because it doesnt have any time. We will have to watch tonight and see if the broad area of low pressure can develop some convection tonight, otherwise this system has a very low chance of development. The ULL to the west over SE TX is helping to keep the system from developing because of high shear. There is an upper level high just off the east, and if it should move over the entire broad area of low pressure, it is possible it could still develop.
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2376. beell
8:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Re:97l
Just using the GFS Upper Air (09/23 12UTC run) and prelim model plots only:
850 mb steering is weak right now. Becomes fairly well established at the 48 hr mark.
I don't see this system making too much of northward turn thru that time period.
Just for the sake of the argument, a NW turn places 97l somewhere east of the northern Windwards at 48 hrs. Ridge looks pretty consistent at 700 and 850mb also-suggesting NNW/NW direction at the end of this period (48-60 hrs).
Then maybe some shear out of the SW-Near Hispanola at that time.
If it worked out like that, maybe no fish.
We don't have anything to grab onto yet, so this is all speculation. File this in the "fish or not" discussion (or somewhere else).
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16651
2375. Patrap
3:56 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico


Link
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2374. extreme236
8:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 8:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

eye,
What is your assessment of the systems?


I can imagine its something negative....
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2373. sporteguy03
8:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
eye,
What is your take on the systems?
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2372. Patrap
3:56 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

GULF OF MEXICO...


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
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2371. wederwatcher555
8:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
2370. nrtiwlnvragn
8:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
TD10 four and a half hours before landfall

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2369. extreme236
8:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 8:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

96L is ingrid all over again. 97L is the one to watch imo


96L has a ULH over it unlike ingrid...dont know what your talking about
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2368. wederwatcher555
8:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L is ingrid all over again. 97L is the one to watch imo
2367. louisianaboy444
8:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
All the best bloggers on here are so thunderstruck by 96 and 97L right now i cant get any information on 94L does anyone know whats going on with it?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
2366. initforwaves
8:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
is there model coherency for the development of 96L? it's looking pretty impressive on satellite this afternoon.

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2365. extreme236
8:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I dont think any model did exceptionally well this year...they all had their ups and downs
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2364. OUSHAWN
8:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
As I have been stating all day long even though others have disagreed..94L is a done deal. There is too much shear to the west of it for anything to happen. It has never looked good at any time today and now doesn't have time to do anything. Just looks like some moisture for the central gulf coast and that is it.

Shawn
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2363. medicroc
8:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted by: cantoriesnumber1fan at 8:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Why did they discontinue running the models on 94L. Is it done?
Might they be upgrading it to TD?
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2362. wederwatcher555
8:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
gfs has been the best this season hands down
2361. tiggeriffic
8:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
web,

I think GFDL is better than NOGAPS
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2360. Weather456
4:44 PM AST on September 23, 2007
from the NHC...AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
ALREADY ACQUIRED A SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH WARM CORE.


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2359. webpig
8:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Model question: have GFS and NOGAPS been the best models for predicting storm tracks in 2007?

Do you think the GFS and NOGAPS tracks for 94, 96 and 97 are likely to be the best path predictors?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2358. tiggeriffic
8:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SJ,

I am still cooking, be a little while,
Pork loin chops
homemade cream of broccoli soup
pasta parmasain
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2356. extreme236
8:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
and the final advisory on Ivo has been issued
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2355. eye
8:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
456, those models look fishy

94l is so disorganized, right now it is just a good amount of moisture, no LLC, not even a broad one....just rain.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
2354. extreme236
8:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Jerry is becoming more tropical according to the nhc...already seems to have a warm core
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2353. tiggeriffic
8:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
br,
the bad thing is that floyd should have been the wake up call for everyone's emergency preparedness...unfortunately some people failed miserably from floyd forward...in retrospect, i hope that citizens have learned to keep a watchful eye for theirselves and not rely on city and state officials to tell them what to do, I watch the weather and plan accordingly. Personally, I begin my supplies in April, buying a little each week, by the time the season is in full swing, i have everything I need, after the season is over, I donate all of it to the needy and wait till next year
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2352. cantoriesnumber1fan
8:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Why did they discontinue running the models on 94L. Is it done?
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2351. nrtiwlnvragn
8:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Jerry Advisory Jerry Discussion
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2350. Weather456
4:42 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2349. heretolearninPR
8:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Have any T#s been put out yet for 97L? Thank you.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.