TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2449. webpig
9:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
can 97L take this track?

The best estimates for storm tracks are always posted at Tropical Weather page on wunderground.com. link

Scroll down for the invests of interest. Currently the computer models for 97L show a mix bag, but GFS might be the best choice to watch per comments I got earlier today (thx!!). link
GFS doesn't appear to take 97 into land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2448. ghal416
9:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

the shear tendency around 94L and 96L seem favorable toward further development soon, but 97L seems to be heading into rougher times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2447. sporteguy03
9:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
eye,
What happened to your name Jimbo by your synopsis? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2446. Drakoen
9:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
oh wait I found it!!!!!Just came in.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE
AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WAS CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM
ARE CURRENTLY VERY STRONG AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT COULD STILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2444. Drakoen
9:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 9:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 5:34 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

hey is the TWO out yet? lol

I haven't seen it.


I'm still searching the NHC site...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2443. groundman
9:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: VAbeachhurricanes at 9:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 9:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Is anyone having problems running the loops (Java) off the NOAA Atl. & Carib Tropical Sat Imagery page today...I can't seem to load the last few frames & get these images to run....


its happening to me 2 think its the site

Me 3, I was presuming it was the site or intense traffic?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2441. Drakoen
9:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 9:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

hey is the TWO out yet? lol


LOL yea look in your blog.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2440. presslord
5:33 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Drak...I think you may have just hit on something worth considering...the NHC/NWS folks are scientists...not English majors...maybe they are just vocabularily challenged...thus unable to articulate their thoughts so well....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2439. groundman
9:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: CosmicEvents at 9:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Posted By: Stoopid1 at 8:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Amen retaining, they do a fine job. I don't understand how people bash them.
.
.
The NHC does a fine job, last year, this year, all years. Nobody does better. Keeping in mind ............................
................. 99% of what's written here is repetitive, troll-like, or ill-informed. My apologies to the very few of you who do have a well-reasoned scientifically detached forecast.

I'm sorry, I read in the opposite order, don't get me wrong what the NHC says is ON the blog but it's discussed so maybe I can wrap a brain cell around it. Then I read Dr. Masters, to see what started all this, especially if it's a new blog BUT as has been said many times, this is a non exact changing science, what is on the blog is more likely to be up to date even if it is just supposition. THEN I go to the NHC to see if what the blog is saying is what coincides with what I read there.
The NHC is not perfect, they probably will gladly admit they are not perfect as will any professional entity that is worth their salt in any kind of non static field. They have been tending toward the conservative side lately which is NOT a good trend, BUT neither on the other hand would be trending toward the jump the gun sensationalism we see on the commercial weather services @ times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2438. hurricane23
5:34 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 5:34 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

hey is the TWO out yet? lol

I haven't seen it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2437. VAbeachhurricanes
9:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
eye wtf we did not need it again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2435. Bobbyweather
5:33 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
I think 97L will be Karen, then 96L Lorenzo, and 94L I think will be Melissa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2434. decimus785
9:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
1877 storm

can 97L take this track?
21 september to 5 october
2433. hurricane23
5:31 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Nothing really surpriseing as the NHC chose to cancel they recon flight into the mess around the yucatan peninsula.

Theres nothing to fly into.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2432. eye
9:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 232129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE
AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WAS CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM
ARE CURRENTLY VERY STRONG AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT COULD STILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
2431. Patrap
4:32 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Jeez...its an echo ,LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2429. Patrap
4:32 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
NOAA Impact Map "KATRINA"
1 foot resolution


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2428. VAbeachhurricanes
9:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
can u guys remove some of those... its stretching out the blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2427. hurricane23
5:31 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
LOL...3 times
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2426. Tazmanian
2:29 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 232129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE
AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WAS CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM
ARE CURRENTLY VERY STRONG AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT COULD STILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
2425. hurricane23
5:30 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 232129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE
AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WAS CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM
ARE CURRENTLY VERY STRONG AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT COULD STILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2424. beell
9:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Current shear chart
Link
9 hrs ago
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2423. Bobbyweather
5:30 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 232129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE
AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WAS CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM
ARE CURRENTLY VERY STRONG AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT COULD STILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2422. wxguru1
9:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE
AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WAS CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM
ARE CURRENTLY VERY STRONG AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2421. VAbeachhurricanes
9:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
the naked swirl is trying to get dressed behind 97L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2420. eye
9:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
it would be hard for 97l to be a fish, looks like it will at least affect the islands, maybe not the CONUS, too early, also there is some shear in its future....we will see.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
2419. Patrap
4:26 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Katrina Showed the World that One has to HAve a Plan of Action..always.
And Had the Federally designed Built and MAintained Levee Protection not failed..We wouldnt be HAving this conversation...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2418. weathermanwannabe
5:26 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Thanks..The still images look a few days old too, so they must be having a problem with the server....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2417. VAbeachhurricanes
9:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 9:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Is anyone having problems running the loops (Java) off the NOAA Atl. & Carib Tropical Sat Imagery page today...I can't seem to load the last few frames & get these images to run....


its happening to me 2 think its the site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2415. Rick54
4:22 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Interesting possibilities with 96 ad 97. If 96 turns out to be a fish the front that turns it out to sea could also bring 97 back over Fl. from the West. If the ridge holds up 96 could hit Fl. from the East while 97 does a Felix or maybe turns into the Northern Gulf. Looking at the shear maps and SSTs I really don't see a reason for either not to develop.
2414. Tazmanian
2:16 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
where is the 5:30pm two?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
2413. VAbeachhurricanes
9:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
eye never wishcasts he always dowgrades most systems kill all the hype lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2412. weathermanwannabe
5:22 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Is anyone having problems running the loops (Java) off the NOAA Atl. & Carib Tropical Sat Imagery page today...I can't seem to load the last few frames & get these images to run....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2411. wxguru1
9:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Very good synopsis Eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2410. CosmicEvents
9:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Stoopid1 at 8:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Amen retaining, they do a fine job. I don't understand how people bash them.
.
.
The NHC does a fine job, last year, this year, all years. Nobody does better. Keeping in mind that forecasting tropical cyclones is NOT an exact science. Perhaps some of the more enthusiastic posters may disagree as they try to forecast better than the NHC, but I believe that the great majority of the people that read this blog do as I do. First see what the NHC has to say. Second, see what Dr. Masters has to say. Third, read this blog for entertainment purposes and the occasional insight. 99% of what's written here is repetitive, troll-like, or ill-informed. My apologies to the very few of you who do have a well-reasoned scientifically detached forecast.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5459
2409. cirrocumulus
9:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It is fascinating to see the connection between the storm systems affected by the aurora and other phenomena. The scientists have written some interesting things on this. And there most definitely are connections. Period....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2408. eye
9:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94 never had a chance
Jerry, no concern besides shipping
96 could be the last major and could easily be a fish(I would be amazed if it made it all the way across without a weakness somewhere with all the troughness) When they get strong way out there, they tend to find the weakness.
97 hasnt really done much today, if anything, convection has weakened. I think it has a shot, and it is interesting that there is a naked swirl right behind it.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
2407. Drakoen
9:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2406. retaining1
8:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Patrap:

"As one who was here..The only thing criminal was a lack of response from the Federal Level..Hard to respond in a City 80% flooded...."

Katrina response was a failure on many levels. Lets forget the aftermath for a few moments, and focus on what happened before and during.

1) Katrina grew stronger and targeted New Orleans over a weekend. From Friday afternoon to Sunday night, there was little guidance from local City officials. By the time they called for evacuation, it was too late to organize.

2) Too many false alarms and ordered evacuations in prior years. My mother-in-law, living South of New Orleans, claimed she wasn't leaving for Katrina because she was tired of evacuating and then not even getting rain. She and many others decided to stay put that time.

3) No safe evacuation plan for the city. The Superdome was a BAD idea. That building was not structurally fit for a Cat-3 hurricane. The dome was coming apart during the storm, with thousands of people sheltering inside. They were very lucky.

4) Few provisions for communications, food, prisoner transfer, hospitals... Katrina exposed a lot of failure to plan for the unexpected on many levels, both state and local.

Had Katrina hit shore 20-miles West of it's landfall location, New Orleans would have been devastated at a level that would have been astounding. As it was, the majority of the hurricane damage was East of the city. The flooding was a tragedy, but it could easily have been much worse with greater loss of life.

Katrina exposed the failure of political bickering, posturing and finger-crossing at a city, state and federal level.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2405. VAbeachhurricanes
9:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
looks like the tiny surface low between 97L and 96L is trying to get some thunderstorms. does anyone else see this happening?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2404. Drakoen
9:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Update SFC charts show 96L's low is under the convection.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2403. beell
9:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
...Either JP or extreme this morning said the center was moving into the Gulf, guessing it must have backtracked....

I thought it did to. Do notice a different placement of the sfc trof on the SSD satellites-if you click on the "NWS Fronts" box. It was in the BOC this morning. Now over the Yuc and leading back to a flare up of land based convection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2401. Patrap
4:18 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2400. louisianaboy444
9:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
gettteemmm Jp lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2399. Tazmanian
2:14 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
whats new with 96L and 97L update me thanks
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.