TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2499. Rick54
4:57 PM CDT on September 23, 2007


From the TWO on the area of 94 ...This system has not become any better organized so far today. However there is a potential for development in the area.
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2498. hurricane23
5:59 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 5:59 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

and yet no Floater for 96L i give up

The reason there is no floater on it is because its still ways out in the eastern atlantic.I suspect tommorow it will come into view and a floater will be placed on it.
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2496. Tazmanian
2:47 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
and yet no Floater for 96L i give up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
2495. Sfloridacat5
9:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yeah, 97L looks like it's going through some sort of re-organization.
The circulation looked a lot better(to me) earier today with more convection near its center.
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2494. beell
9:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: VAbeachhurricanes at 9:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

the naked swirl is trying to get dressed behind 97L


I think the best thing about the naked swirl in front of 96l is as a rough guide to low level steering (looks NW). A little better look to the swirl may be due to upper level venting just to the NW of the swirl (high wispy cirrus stuff from 97l to the west).
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16213
2493. SaymoBEEL
9:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L -sheared to death?
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2492. cirrocumulus
9:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Taz: I agree it could be a TD(touchdown). Also, 97 actually is flaring up more than the outlook would indicate. I saw more convection on a very recent satellite!
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2491. eye
9:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey jp, remind me, who said earlier today that 94 wasnt going to amount to anything? that person got laughed at? who was that person?
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2490. hurricane23
5:54 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Iam not impressed at all with 97L right now as convection looks rather disorganized at this time.I also dont see anything close to a surface circulation in the area.

Another Dean?Meaning possible track.
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2489. eye
9:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
(!) reports it....(-) rates the poster(for the filter) so a (-) is a (-) for you, of course, I guess you can press (+) on everyone and it would work the same way!
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2486. Tazmanian
2:54 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
JP 96L sould be a TD right now why would some in like this look so well and not be call a TD?
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2485. sullivanweather
9:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L is a HUGE wave. It's going to take some time to consolidate and get it's act together.

But all the variables are certainly there for tropical cyclone formation.
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2484. presslord
5:54 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
I thought it was (!) that marked agaisnt both parties...Is it (-) too?
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2483. ridesthestorms
9:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What is going on with 94?? Please somebody give me the skinny!11 Thank you
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2482. WeatherRhino
9:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
weathermanwannabe at 9:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Is anyone having problems running the loops (Java) off the NOAA Atl. & Carib Tropical Sat Imagery page today...I can't seem to load the last few frames & get these images to run....


I had this same problem all day yesterday and still can't run some loops today just on NOAA. Thought it was my computer so I updated my Java. Works a little better but if anyone has any suggestions??? I have never had that happen before.
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2481. BahaHurican
5:50 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
I don't know why u guys couldn't find the TWO . . . IT found ME in my sleep, woke me up, and got me here . .. lol However might find this more interesting; note the absence of 94L from the map. . .



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2480. MrSea
5:52 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
96L looks better than Jerry
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2479. hurricane23
5:52 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Here you go JP.
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2477. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
is the two out yet come on post it another ten times
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2476. eye
9:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
dont press (-) on a post, it is a (-) for you also.(they did this to prevent abuse.
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2473. Patrap
4:51 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
How do I flag spam & offensive content?

Link
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2472. Patrap
4:50 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
How to ignore a blogger

Link

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2470. Patrap
4:49 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
One cant ban anyone here in the main Blog.Just Put the blogger on ignore

Link
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2468. Rick54
4:46 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
the shear tendency around 94L and 96L seem favorable toward further development soon, but 97L seems to be heading into rougher times.

The tendencies over the next 72 hours don't seem that bad at least according to the map on the WU tropical page. I don't see anything that would kill a storm except for a small band in the Gulf.
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2466. woodlandstx
9:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
there is the slightest hint of circulation right on the northwest coast of the yucatan seen on visible
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2465. eye
9:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i wonder if the naked swirl behind 97l will throw the models off?
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2462. Drakoen
9:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 9:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Interesting to note that TPC has this low with 97L in the western bahamas in 7 days.


yea i saw that. perhaps they are going with the more reliable models.
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2459. ghal416
9:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 9:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: ghal416 at 9:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

the shear tendency around 94L and 96L seem favorable toward further development soon, but 97L seems to be heading into rougher times.

97L has an anticyclone over it though, so that will help keep shear low for about 72hrs or more...shear is already weakening in part of the caribbean


ah okay. what do the models show becoming of 97L so far?
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2458. hurricane23
5:39 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Interesting to note that TPC has this low with 97L in the western bahamas in 7 days.
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2453. extreme236
9:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ghal416 at 9:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

the shear tendency around 94L and 96L seem favorable toward further development soon, but 97L seems to be heading into rougher times.


97L has an anticyclone over it though, so that will help keep shear low for about 72hrs or more...shear is already weakening in part of the caribbean
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2452. Tazmanian
2:39 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
i am now calling 96L a TD it looks so well to be call a TD right now this look at it some one call the nhc and have them make this a TD


any one 2nd that?
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2450. KRL
9:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: retaining1 at 9:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Katrina exposed the failure of political bickering, posturing and finger-crossing at a city, state and federal level.


Anyone that expects the government to come to their rescue promptly and efficiently in a major disaster is dillusional. Just not going to happen whether its local, state or federdal.

The resources and manpower just can't respond competently when everything goes into chaos in a catastrophic event.

Look at 9/11. If that doesn't speak volumes for the reality nothing else does. Here we are with the most sophisticated intel networks listening in on and watching the entire world's communications and movements, the most powerful defense systems suppossed to protect us against anything, the most incredible weapons and equipment, and over 3 Million personnel whose primary mission is to protect us, and yet a handful of extremist hooligans penetrated this country like a piece of cake, took out the WTC and nailed the pentagon.

Bottom line, you're on your own for at least several days in a major Hurricane, Earthquake, Tsunami, or whatever else. Not faulting the government, but to expect them to be the cure all shield of protection is just not possible.
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2449. webpig
9:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
can 97L take this track?

The best estimates for storm tracks are always posted at Tropical Weather page on wunderground.com. link

Scroll down for the invests of interest. Currently the computer models for 97L show a mix bag, but GFS might be the best choice to watch per comments I got earlier today (thx!!). link
GFS doesn't appear to take 97 into land.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.