TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2549. SouthCentralTex
5:15 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Taz, give the NHC some time. The storm is far enough out to where they have plenty of time to designate it.
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2548. benirica
10:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i am dumbstruck with this... why isnt this a TD yet... by the way, does anyone have a quickscat of 96L??
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
2547. SaymoBEEL
10:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks, My pet peave is hearing reporters say MObul (I bet yours, too)
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2545. sullivanweather
10:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Taz and extreme,

Well-organized doesn't necessarily dignify an upgrade to a tropical cyclone.

The low pressure is still elongated W-E along several degrees of longitude. I certainly wouldn't classify it as a 'cyclone'
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2544. Sfloridacat5
10:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L does look fishy.
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2543. eye
10:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
NHC compliant hotline

1-800-INVESTS
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2542. Patrap
5:12 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: LesterNessman at 5:08 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?


I am a 47 yr old Weather Hobbyist. Most here are weather hobbyist too.
Except some believe their post are to be taken as a Mets.

Those are often ego fed and not really in tune to the spirit of Dr. Masters Blog.
It is to share information and relevant links for discussion.

There is no such thing as a amateur met.

Always consult your local NWS packages or the NHC for Official information.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
2541. extreme236
10:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 10:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I smell fish with 96L...Still early but could very well be.


It all depends on the high pressure ridges...too early to tell but its possible
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2540. BahaHurican
6:10 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: LesterNessman at 6:08 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?


Isn't it possible to be educated in meteorology without being a professional meteorologist?? You make the two sound mutually exclusive.

In any case, quite a few people here are making educated guesses (also sometimes known as hypothoses) even though they are not working mets. Others are students; maybe their guesses are "educating"?

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2539. extreme236
10:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I hope QS catches 96L
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2538. hurricane23
6:15 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
I smell fish with 96L...Still early but could very well be.
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2537. mobilebayal
10:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Great name Saymobeel!
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2536. presslord
6:11 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
speaking of the 'ignore' button....just my 'uneducated' opinion...
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2535. extreme236
10:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Im guessing the nhc is waiting for dvorak to go up for 96L
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2534. sullivanweather
10:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: LesterNessman at 10:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?



I, for one, do not make any uneducated guesses.

I'm sure I come to my predictions the same way any 'professional meteorologist' would.

Meticulous hours spent combing through data, which would include satellite observation, surface observations, model guidance, and personal experience.
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2533. SaymoBEEL
10:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It looks like your are in for a wet evening in NOLA.
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2532. CanePredictor
10:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think the NHC is being way too conservative this time.
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2531. Tazmanian
3:11 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
96L and 97L dos have a ch of be comeing a cat 5 storm later on
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2530. woodlandstx
10:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
center of 94L appears to be around 90W,21N entering the gulf finally.
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2528. CanePredictor
10:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I am starting to gain a little frusteration with the NHC. 96L is CLEARLY a depression....perhaps even a tropical storm...And they still as of 5 pm have it an invest what is going on?
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2527. Tazmanian
3:10 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 3:09 PM PDT on September 23, 2007.

From the 5:30 TWO on 96L:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

If its well-organized, then why isnt it a TD? lol


that is what i amm not geting at all 236 it sould be but its not
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2526. extreme236
10:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: MrSea at 10:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

96L has dry african dust to the north...the only limiting factor


Yes, but since it is north of 96L, it shouldnt have a major effect on it
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2525. hurricane23
6:10 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:08 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

ok when you think that will be?

I posted a floater you can use for 96L a little up in the blog.
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2524. SaymoBEEL
10:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
WE are having significant rainfall in Mobile.
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2523. Sfloridacat5
10:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
The Eastern half of the GOM is loaded with moisture. 94L should bring a lot of that moisture towards Texas.
We had another rainy day in my area of S.W. Florida.
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2522. extreme236
10:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
From the 5:30 TWO on 96L:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

If its well-organized, then why isnt it a TD? lol

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2521. MrSea
6:07 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
96L has dry african dust to the north...the only limiting factor
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2520. Tazmanian
3:07 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
ok when you think that will be?
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2519. LesterNessman
9:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just guessing?
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2518. Patrap
5:06 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Current NOLA Radar in Motion...Lots of Rain and Thunderstorms heading onshore

Link
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2517. Tazmanian
3:06 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
may be that is 94L and its now in where TD 10 ues to be
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2516. beell
10:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
...note the absence of 94L from the map. . .
Noted Baha. A subtle hint from these folks.
thanks-(still watchin tho)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16613
2515. Patrap
5:06 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOES-12 IR Loop GOM

94L Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
2514. hurricane23
6:06 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Here you go with a floater from cira which can be used for 96L...
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2513. Hurricaneblast
10:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
13E
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2512. mississippiwx23
9:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
taz, the floater will come when the whole system is within the GOES east zone.
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2511. Patrap
5:04 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Thats Just a Mislabled Current NRL image...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
2510. Bobbyweather
6:04 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
10LNONAME.25kts-1005mb-304N-890W

As of 4 PM EDT...
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2508. BahaHurican
6:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Taz,

No floater may just mean it's not yet within range of the satellite from which they run the floaters, you know. I don't think it's some kind of storm discrimination.

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2507. Hurricaneblast
10:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Same thing with the remanant low of 13E. It's still alive
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2506. Hurricaneblast
10:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
NRL updated the location of former TD 10. little confused about this...
td10?
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2505. OUSHAWN
9:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
EYE,

Yes, we know what you said...I said it too but you don't have to keep pointing it out to everyone. I'm sure you have been wrong before just like I have. Learn how to act in being right about something.

JP was right all along about TD10 yet I was wrong. When you are wrong about the next storm I want to see you stress to everyone on here time and time again how wrong you were just like you are now about being right...however, I don't see you doing that so do us all a favor and leave it alone and move on.

Shawn
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2504. sullivanweather
10:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
TWO=tropical weather outlook
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2503. heretolearninPR
10:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Taz,

someone found a satelite on 96L earlier from the University of Colorado (I think). I forgot who, but maybe they will re-post it for you.

Sorry Colorado State
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2501. sullivanweather
9:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L is disorganized.

There's also NO low level circulation center (I see a few in here saying that there is one).

There's turning in the low level cloud field, but no center of circulation...
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2499. Rick54
4:57 PM CDT on September 23, 2007


From the TWO on the area of 94 ...This system has not become any better organized so far today. However there is a potential for development in the area.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.