TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 99 - 49

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

98. Weather456
11:38 AM AST on September 22, 2007
1430 utc

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
97. tiggeriffic
3:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Stoorm,

I found it, i googled it on the second tab, no services in the title, lol, any who, looks like what they have #ed 3 and 4 are two good ones to watch, know I will be
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96. islagal
3:33 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Patrap...it always says 89 degrees and possibility of showers or sunny...I think it's all for the tourist economy..LOL ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95. Patrap
10:32 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
The reason the forecast calls for weather in LA/Tx come Monday afternoon.is that the system will be affecting the coast way ahead of any surface low/CoC. Thats the reasoning Im seeing. One need not focus on the Center of diffuse , slow forming systems as the effects usally are well removed from the center. Unless it tightens and the forecast dosent call for that, right now. Just my take on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94. TerraNova
11:30 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
The CV system does look very impressive but it may have to face shear down the road if it develops.

nemoc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93. islagal
3:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Isla Mujeres...and by little, I mean 4.3 miles by 88 feet at the most narrow part. Have to be on the lookout at all times...especially when house sitting the glass house 20 feet off the beach on North point!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92. stoormfury
3:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
sorry tiggeriffic , the link should be crown weather.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
91. Labayourambler
3:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Could this system pull a Humberto in the Gulf before coming ashore either in TX or LA??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90. redrobin
3:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I just think the whole thing is a little fast. Yet it is weather and we have seen fast this year havent we? I just really dont think it will be a TS. Think about it, wouldnt it have to be traveling around 18 to 20 mph to even get to Tx ? What would make it do that? AND how would it build up at that rate? Trying to think outside the box. Right now brain is still begging for morning coffee fix.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
89. Patrap
10:28 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
One can see your local forecast anywhere in the world..By inserting your Zip,Location..or Country in the little Box on the TOP Left of EVERY wunderground page. The "scientfic forecast" is on the right side of a Specific location page under the 7 day forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
88. castnblast
10:27 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
I don't see it moving that fast either. The models this season have been a little agressive on forward movement in that area this season on developing systems. I'm thinking it may be a Tues-Wed. scenario.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
87. NorthxCakalaky
3:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Ivo down to 55mph.

Be back later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
86. cattlebaroness
3:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
isla, It sounds like yall will get a whole bunch of rain. I think that 94L wont be organized before hitting the GOM. But I know nothing. If anything else my response will actually persuade someone who knows something about weather to respond to you. BTW, what is the name of your little island? Cozumel?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
85. youradjuster
3:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
sorry about the spelling. My fingers are bigger than the keyboard LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
84. tiggeriffic
3:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
stoorm,.

sorry, did type crown, using 2 tabs here and listening to a 3 year old at same time, typed crown weather services.com and could not find the page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
83. youradjuster
3:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
icmoore,

I know there isn't a Cat 6-7 even on the Staf-sim scale, I was just stating that there is SO MUCH differance in what this will do.

I do know (I was on here yesturday too) that there was talk of this system blowing up rapidly over the weekend. and now they are saying a RAIN shower. It should also be noted that to travel acrossed the DOM that fast it would have to be moving about 40kts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
82. Tazmanian
8:20 AM PDT on September 22, 2007
i think the CV wave will be 95L today or sunday
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
81. stoormfury
3:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
tiggeriffic , it is crown weather services.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
80. Weather456
11:18 AM AST on September 22, 2007
The African Low

A broad area of low pressure has developed about 600 miles south of
the Cape Verde Islands in association with a tropical wave. This
system shows some signs of organization...and slow development is
possible as it moves westward near 15 mph.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
79. MasterForecaster
3:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
is there any possible way 94L could pull a Wilma?

crossing the yucatan and the head NE or ENE?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
78. castnblast
10:16 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Who knows...I think intensity forecasts are all shot to hell after the storm that went into the TXLA border caught everyone by suprise. I'll say this...That system had a well established sfc low, and when the convection "popped" around it, that thing act together real quick. It depends on what this system looks like when it enters the GOM, and how organized it is at that point. really hard to say, but this one does appear to be developing a sfc low. As we all learned, proximity to land is not always an indicator. I'm currious what the Bamm models are picking up on that take it SW in the middle of the Gulf???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77. islagal
3:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hola! Can anyone give me an idea of what I may expect today and tomorrow on a little island off of Cancun? Nothing really being said here. Gracias!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
76. tiggeriffic
3:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
stoorm,
typed in storm weather services.com and page said couldn't find it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
75. NorthxCakalaky
3:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: icmoore at 3:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Youradjuster, Nobody with any weather knowlege said a cat 6 or 7. As I recall it was somebodies ill attempt at humor. Cat


lol.

At the most call it a weak t.s Jerry.(So nobodie gets worried)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
74. TampaSpin
11:18 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
Question
Why is this thing in the Carrb..going to race this fast. Are the stirring flows this strong?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
73. cantoriesnumber1fan
3:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
It looks like the steering currents with 94L will be weak in about 36 hrs and it could stall in the GOM? That is what I am seeing with the preliminary model runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
72. icmoore
3:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Youradjuster, Nobody with any weather knowlege said a cat 6 or 7. As I recall it was somebodies ill attempt at humor. Cat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
71. redrobin
3:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I am only stating this because of what our local weather here in Houston said. They are saying it will be fast not much development and a very good chance to hit Tx or possible La. That was on the 10:00 news T, Heller was the met.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
70. Patrap
10:16 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector
Latest Still Image

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
69. stoormfury
3:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
tiggeriffic

go to crown weather services.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
67. denseypr
3:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 22, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has issued its final
advisory on the remnants of Tropical Depression Ten...located over
southern Mississippi.

Cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a weak trough of low pressure. Development...if
any...is expected to be slow as the system moves northwestward
toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

A non-tropical low over the central Atlantic located about 1150
miles east of Bermuda is moving east-northeastward. Shower
activity associated with this system is limited...and
development...if any...should be slow to occur.

A large area of disturbed weather located about 1000 miles east of
the Windward Islands is associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. There are no signs of development at this time.

A broad area of low pressure has developed about 600 miles south of
the Cape Verde Islands in association with a tropical wave. This
system shows some signs of organization...and slow development is
possible as it moves westward near 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

Forecaster Pasch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
66. cattlebaroness
3:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
It looks like there are a couple of smallish blobs in the GOM, one by the Fl panhandle. Is there anything to those?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
64. decimus785
3:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94L will develop rapidly,...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
62. tiggeriffic
3:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
stoorm, what is a good link for that one, that is the one I was trying to watch. want to see what the air currents are to see if it might come to the east coast...i know it is too early to know a def but like a lot of time to plan, also have neighbors who are handicapped, have to make sure I can help them too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
61. castnblast
10:04 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
There appears to be a low center developing due east of the Belize/Mexico border. I don't know the distance, but I'd estimate about 100-150 miles or more. appears to be moving NNW. Anyone else see that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
60. cattlebaroness
2:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hop, sorry I am just trying to get a handle on the possible intensity of 94L. I am just wondering why it will move so quickly across the GOM. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
59. Patrap
10:03 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Thanks 456..didnt see that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
58. stoormfury
2:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
good day

while most are focusing on the westwern caribbean disturbance 94L my main concern is the area of disturbed weather 1000 miles east otf the southern windward islands, this a pertabation from the ITCZ and is about 11N lat. the area is rather disorganised but is expected to gel during the next few days. conditions are favourable with wind shear at 10 knots, SST 29 deg C. the GFS , European, UKMET AND THE NOGAPS All develop a cyclone from this disturbance. the area is moving to the west at 15 knots and should be monitored closely as it could be a threat to the islands sometime next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
57. Patrap
10:03 AM CDT on September 22, 2007

944
fxus64 klix 220911
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
411 am CDT Sat Sep 22 2007


Discussion...
rain chances will be on the increase today as the remnants of
tropical depression number 10 moves west across the forecast
area. The center of the system is in the vicinity of Mobile early
this morning and while most of the associated precipitation is
located to the east of the center...some rain was advancing westward
across Jackson County Mississippi and the coastal waters to the
east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The chance for showers
and a few thunderstorms will spread west and increase across the
forecast area during the morning and into the early afternoon
hours. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be excessive...generally
one inch or less. The threat of any severe weather will be limited
today with the lack of substantial instability although more favorable
shear to the east of the remnant center could be enough for a very
isolated and weak tornado. Plan to maintain chance probability of precipitation on Sunday
but will increase chances into the likely category on Monday as
energy moves out of the western Caribbean and across the Gulf
bringing a surge of tropical moisture into the central Gulf Coast
region. GFS still develops a surface low over the south Gulf and
now moves it toward Texas. Some of the other models also indicate
a weak surface low in the Gulf during the time frame but generally
keep it farther south and west. Drier air will begin to filter
into the area in the Wednesday to Friday time frame as upper level
ridging shifts west across the Gulf Coast region. Rain chances
will correspondingly decrease for the end of the week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
56. Weather456
11:01 AM AST on September 22, 2007
For all u sports fan...weather underground has a new page dedicated to sports forecast and weather in three categorys -

College Football
National Football League
Major League Baseball

http://www.wunderground.com/sports/CFB/
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
55. tiggeriffic
2:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
morning all, how goes it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
54. Patrap
10:00 AM CDT on September 22, 2007

GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
53. StormJunkie
3:00 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Thanks pat!

Off to get some lunch and a few reebs for the game!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
52. Patrap
9:57 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
SJ,,U do a great job with teaching and providing links and info. Thats what this site is all about.
Your post always get the thumbs up from me.
Some are Ego fed..some are just mean..some havent a clue.
But the ignore and other new controls..

PRICELESS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
51. taco2me61
2:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 2:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

In weather just like sports anything can happen!


LOL when it comes to the SEC anyway....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
50. StormJunkie
2:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Tell him to take a few to pass out to the others around him :~)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
49. aubiesgirl
2:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
ok so am I seein this right...it looks like to me on water vapor that ..coc..is on the east side of 94l..am I seein it right?...tryin to learn
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 99 - 49

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.