TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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149. TheCaneWhisperer
4:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Personally, I think the most interesting and odd thing when this year is all done, will be TDNULL.
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148. OUSHAWN
4:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The YUC system has a very nice satellite representation in my opinion. However, that of course will change because of it having to spend time over land on the YUC. The key is how much organization will it have once it emerges in the GOM tomorrow. If it has a structure like it does now than I would say there's a pretty good chance we could see some significant strengthening...in contrast if it emerges very disorganized with barely any thunderstorm activity than I wouldn't give it too much of a chance. I'm 50/50 on it at this point. It's going over land but I've seen some systems actually seem to become better organized by going over the YUC...time will tell and we will know more tomorrow.

Shawn
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
147. Drakoen
4:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Satellite presentation is impressive.
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146. ecflawthr
4:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
good morning everyone. I see we are back to blob watching. Invest 94l looks better this morning,but it looks like the wave near cv has the best chance to develop I guess the question if it develops will it last all the way across the atl? Also does the euro still show a storm in the bahamas in ten days?
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145. castnblast
11:31 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
currently not enough time to develope...

Depends on how conducive the upper atmosphere is in relation to the organization of the system...Anyone recall the last hurricane to go from TD-hurricane in 18 hours? This is apples and oranges though...The system in the Carribean has a lot of work to do to get to that point. However, I say there is time, but it DEPENDS on the level of ORGANIZATION this thing has when it gets off the YUC...I won't call for squat till that happens...
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144. Drakoen
4:30 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Smyrick145 at 4:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Drakoen
Whats your opinion on the timing of the arrival of 94L to the Gulf Coast?


Its a matter of how long it takes to develop. If it stays weak in will be in the Gulf coast by Monday. If it strenthens some maybe a day or two delayed.
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143. Smyrick145
4:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Thanks
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142. Weather456
12:26 PM AST on September 22, 2007
yeah..the GFS had been calling for development since yesterday
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
141. Smyrick145
4:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Drakoen
Whats your opinion on the timing of the arrival of 94L to the Gulf Coast?
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140. TheCaneWhisperer
4:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Smyrick145 at 4:10 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

If I may answer your question. 94L will ride the return flow of the ULL and TD10 at a pretty good clip as they move SW. Rapid NW movement is expected.
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139. FLWeatherFreak91
4:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Well it appears that I in fact in Tampa recorded the highest wind from TD10 at 62 mph on Thursday at 5:58 pm (besides the 105 mph tornado of course)
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138. TerraNova
12:23 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Ya Drakoen. The GFS develops a pretty defined system out of this early next week, as do several other models.
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137. TerraNova
12:21 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
So, the buzz it that 94L won't have time to develop into anything big? What do you guys think about that

It's too early to tell what the ultimate intensity will be as most of the models still havn't released their new runs with 94L included. Currently it appears as if there won't be enough time for a major system to develop, but it still isn't completely impossible that we could see something stronger than a TS.
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136. Drakoen
4:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I'm guessing you guys saw this.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS FINAL
ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 1150
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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135. Weather456
12:21 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:06 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
I suspect another invest of the african coast in the next day or two as this system has shown persistence and also has a decent mid level circulation.

Very far south which is a plus right now.Adrian


agree
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
133. TerraNova
12:19 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
The 12z GFS is coming out now. It shows nothing different than the last run; 94L crosses the Yucatan then heads in the general direction of TX as a weak system.

gfs
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132. smmcdavid
11:18 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Uh oh, gotta go. Be back later.
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131. smmcdavid
11:17 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
So, the buzz it that 94L won't have time to develop into anything big? What do you guys think about that?
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130. TerraNova
12:15 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
The TRMM pass shows a circulation off Belize marked by a swirl in rain bands.

b
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129. chklingon
4:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The GFS has been calling for this for several runs. However last nights run put it near the central TX coast by Monday afternoon. It will be interesting to see what it does with it at the 12Z run.

The extended run put it just on shore and then backed it off shore again. I noticed how two of the early models do the same thing, but don't get near Tx.
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128. Michfan
4:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I had to drive to Pensacola through most of TD 10's rain last night. Damn that was an adventure. I have never driven through so many tropical downpours for such a long period of time. The entire panhandle was covered with rain. Good thing is it washed all of the lovebugs off of my car!
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127. beell
4:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
From the NE tip of the Yucatan to the TX/Mex border is about 825 miles. Just a bit more than 48 hrs at 15kts.
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126. smmcdavid
11:12 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Did everyone survive TD #10?
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125. Michfan
4:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I would guess that the ULL would pull it in that direction as it slides SW. Currently the flow doesn't seem to be moving in that direction.
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124. destruction4u
11:10 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
How fast is 94L moving? Monday seems very fast for 94L to get there. Any thought?
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123. Smyrick145
4:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hurricane 23
What are your thoughts on the timing of 94L's arrival to somewhere along the Gulf Coast? Dr. Masters stated this would be arriving in Texas or Louisiana on Monday. Do you agree?
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122. hurricane23
12:04 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I suspect another invest of the african coast in the next day or two as this system has shown persistence and also has a decent mid level circulation.

Very far south which is a plus right now.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
121. Patrap
11:02 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Actually..the forecast movement of 94L seems to be a straightforward one. The Loop shows the ULL in The western GOM sliding SW..and the Remnant TD-10 following it..and the Flow bringing 94L NW thru time.

The upper levels of 94L are already well into the southern GOM .

GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean

Link
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120. plywoodstatenative
12:03 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
pat, this is going to be an interesting and crazy blog. now that there is not much to talk about out there.
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119. Michfan
3:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hmmmmm looking at the steering currents i don't see how this moves NW....looks more like a N track to me.
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118. SomeRandomTexan
11:01 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
does 94l have a chance to be a cane and if so how strong?
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117. Labayourambler
3:52 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Is it me or how in the world could that this blob in the NW caribbean now could be near LA by late Mon.?? I thought most GOM systems have slower movements?? Just askin' and wondering.
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116. Patrap
10:52 AM CDT on September 22, 2007

National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification
Contents

1. Introduction
2. Forecast verification procedures
3. Annual NHC verification reports
4. Official five-year mean errors and distributions
5. Official error trends
6. Model error trends
7. NHC official forecast error database
8. Performance measures and goals
9. References




Link
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115. cattlebaroness
3:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
isla, Island of Women? That's great.
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114. Patrap
10:50 AM CDT on September 22, 2007

GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean

Link
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113. youradjuster
3:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
If 94 is like every other system we have had this year. Take whatever is being said about it and turn it 180 deg and that is probably what will happen. We haven't had a storm yet this year that has "followed" the rule book of storms
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112. TerraNova
11:48 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
Closeup:

rams
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111. extreme236
3:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Looks like our best shot for development in the near term:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
110. Michfan
3:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Good morning everyone. I see we have a new Invest to track. Damn that thing has flared up nicely. It just needs a little rotation to get kick started. Key is going to be whether the low passes over the Yucatan or not in regards to its development.
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109. icmoore
3:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I am sure somebody probably noted this already but the tornado that Dr. Master said happened Friday night in Eustis, FL. actually occurred Thursday night. Cat
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108. Weather456
11:41 AM AST on September 22, 2007
Autumn Equinox begins on Sunday at 09:51 UTC or 05:51 EDT/AST
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
107. nrtiwlnvragn
3:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: islagal at 3:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Hola! Can anyone give me an idea of what I may expect today and tomorrow on a little island off of Cancun? Nothing really being said here. Gracias!


The International Tropical Discussion will give you some more info in your area, but it only updates once a day. Later this afternoon is the next update.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
106. IKE
10:41 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Maybe there is a low east of Belize...their reporting WNW winds...

Observed at: Belize, BH
Elevation: 16 ft
[Mostly Cloudy]
82 F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 77 F
Wind: 8 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 29.91 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 91 F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
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105. liljade
3:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
could th reminants of td10 go back in the gulf?
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104. redrobin
3:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
-Met Tim Heller
-abc13.com

channel 13.com blogs
Read more abc13.com Houston blogs covering the issues you want to know about.
- blogs.abc13.com
New Tropical Storm Could Develop This Weekend
While much attention is being paid to the storm now moving ashore in the central Gulf coast, the real storm might be the one trying to develop in the Caribbean.

Several computer models, including our exclusive FutureTrack, are showing another tropical system developing over the weekend. This new storm is forecast to move very quickly to the north at about 20 mph. If a storm develops and if it tracks over the central part of the Gulf of Mexico it would be moving over deep, undisturbed, warm water which could cause rapid intensification. It's possible we could be tracking a hurricane by Sunday night.

The storm we've been tracking this past week is now approaching the Gulf coast and should make landfall late Friday near Mobile, Alabama. The moisture from this storm will reach the Houston-Galveston area by Sunday. As we have been stressing all week, some of the rain could be heavy. Look closely at our forecast and you'll also see a significant chance of rain for Monday. That is due to the possible development of a new storm coming in from the Caribbean.

We need to watch the weather carefully this weekend.
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102. SomeRandomTexan
10:13 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
HELLO....

So whats the news with 94L and what are the chances of getting a storm out of it?
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101. nola70119
3:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Dr.Masters nailed the last one, so right now I am all ears. :)
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100. Patrap
10:37 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Its Like Living in Se La...summer to fall forecast. Humid, hot Afternoon scattered T-storms..scattered Hurricanes till October..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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