TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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199. Finnmet
5:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Whats your opinion about this cyclone in mediterranean sea.Possible subtropicale cyclone or just an impresiv extratropical low?
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198. Prgal
1:54 PM AST on September 22, 2007
I got the site. Its www.tormenta.net
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197. decimus785
5:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L today......
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196. Prgal
1:52 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Hi all. I think John has a webpage or at least used to have one.
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195. JLPR
5:48 PM GMT on Septiembre 22, 2007
yeah todo bien
it looks like the one south of cape verde islands wants to be td11
umm
were would it go if it develop
i know its to soon i just want a guess
:P
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194. stoormfury
5:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
it looks like a LLC is trying to form within the CALT wave near 10N 48W. This could be another invest in a couple of days
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193. benirica
5:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
lol ok.
is he alive? someone like that should have a blog nowadays...
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192. benirica
5:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
hey jlpr, todo bien?
i think i do hear a 95L coming along soon
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191. heretolearninPR
5:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
benirica,

nothing happened to him that I know, but I was just reflecting upon how well he predicted unpredictable storms such as the ones we have seen this season. It is off topic so I won't prolong this.
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190. JLPR
5:46 PM GMT on Septiembre 22, 2007
i see a quickly organizing system
do i hear 95L...
:P
posible 95l
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189. stormybil
5:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
will catl keep gping west if it forms ?
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188. benirica
5:43 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
hey heretolearn... i live in PR too.
i think ive heard of him, not too sure, but it rings a bell. what happened to him that your bringing him up?
i just got online and ive been away a while... anything looking like it has its mind set on developing?
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187. decimus785
5:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
i think the tropical wave near south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa will become a depression before the 94L
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186. heretolearninPR
5:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
yes
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185. tiggeriffic
5:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
was he there during hugo? trying to remember
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184. philliesrock
1:35 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
New poll: Most likely place for US landfall this year? If you don't think there will be a landfall, just don't vote.
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183. heretolearninPR
5:39 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
he was the one who predicted hortense would hit PR when all the tracks were south of the island.
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182. tiggeriffic
5:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
heretolearn,

Name sounds familiar, my ex is from PR, Truillio Alto...I remember him or his mother one talking bout that guy when hugo hit i think, long time ago so memory is fuzzy
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181. beell
5:33 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
i had lost the link-thanks again.
(went w/out to sea)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
180. tiggeriffic
5:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
just coming back, sounds like the discussion is on the wave to the south of the cape verdes...water temps are warm enough and doesnt look like much shear is out there to hinder any organization. Double tabbing here trying to see more info but on crown weather, shear will be low thru at least the middle of next week
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179. philliesrock
1:31 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Here beell:

Link
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178. heretolearninPR
5:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Has anyone here every heard of John Toohey Morales? He was originally from Puerto Rico and a consulting meteorologist for the English speaking radio station here for many years. I believe he got a job with Telemundo in MIami. The reason I bring this up is because he was almost always right on with the storms going to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Perhaps it was from growing up in the area and storm watching.
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177. Drakoen
5:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Sry can't answers questions now. I'm busy. Leave the questions in my blog and i will answer them later.
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176. beell
5:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hey philliesrock,
What was the final results on the Ingrid poll?
Thanks
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
175. stoormfury
5:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Drak
The global models are hinting that a cyclone will develop from the area east of the southern windward islands sometime next week. What is your take on this disturbed area
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174. Circle
17:24:GMT den 22. september 2007
How can you tell from a satelite picture if it's a surface low that developes, or a "high low"? Or is it possible to tell from visible satelite?
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173. beell
5:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
xTD 10 is currently riding W on a ridge that is forecast to become more SE-NW oriented. A recurve by xTD10 may indicate that this is occuring.
94l will also ride this same SE-NW ridge.
As long as xTD10 continues W, what ever becomes of 94l might come ashore further S down the TX coast. As it is forecast now, the Good Dr's map looks pretty good.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
172. philliesrock
1:20 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
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171. philliesrock
1:17 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Storms in 144 hours on the 12z CMC:

94L near Texas as a TS after re-emerging into the GOM following its Houston landfall.

TS or STS passing between Bermuda and the East Coast.

Hurricane approaching the northern Antilles.

A low pressure system coming off the African coast.
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170. FitzRoy
5:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hey Cane Dr, Folks were wondering where you'd got to. Nice to see you :)
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169. Weather456
1:14 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: decimus785 at 1:10 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
we may have 95L soon if organization continues....

Where?


African Low.....look at the image Drakoen posted at 12:37 PM.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
168. taco2me61
5:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
with 94L and the possible form of 95L, Which one gets named 1st???? (94 or 95)

Taco :0)
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167. taco2me61
5:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Aubiesgirl,
With all due respact I think so.... But I am having a Blonde Male momment and am not so sure....LOL
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166. decimus785
5:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
we may have 95L soon if organization continues....

Where?
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165. aubiesgirl
5:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Coc is on the east side away from the thunderstorms for 94L right?
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164. TampaSpin
1:02 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
looks like a Surface low has developed off SSE of Belize from Goes Satellite.
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163. Weather456
1:04 PM AST on September 22, 2007
94L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
162. Weather456
1:01 PM AST on September 22, 2007
we may have 95L soon if organization continues.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
161. hurricanehamster
5:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
whats going on?
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160. aubiesgirl
5:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: taco2me61 at 4:52 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: aubiesgirl at 4:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

another point I would like to add...this time of year it seems to me ..a VERY amatuer weather watcher..that storms always want to click back east in the gom...I wonder if that would play here

This would be true but the way things has been happening this year, I just don't know anymore if you know what I am saying.... LOL

Just my thought on that

Taco :0)


touche'..and for someone like me who is just tryinto learn..lol...it's been so hard for me to wrap my brain around
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158. taco2me61
4:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 4:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

another point I would like to add...this time of year it seems to me ..a VERY amatuer weather watcher..that storms always want to click back east in the gom...I wonder if that would play here


This would be true but the way things has been happening this year, I just don't know anymore if you know what I am saying.... LOL

Just my thought on that

Taco :0)
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157. Michfan
4:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Welcome back Dr Mandeli. Your insights as always are greatly appreciated.
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156. DocBen
4:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Something out there NE of the Antilles?

Drak - is that a "Sarahacane" east of the CV wave on land?
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155. aubiesgirl
4:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
another point I would like to add...this time of year it seems to me ..a VERY amatuer weather watcher..that storms always want to click back east in the gom...I wonder if that would play here
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154. Drakoen
4:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
African Low.
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153. Drakoen
4:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The GFS 12z run has he system moving into Texas in about 2-3 days. Not much time to develop.
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152. aubiesgirl
4:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94l is lookin better and better on water vapor...should one go with simple steering with this storm?...run from the highs chase the lows?...if that were to be the case wouldn't it head nnw?..I ask because I am tryin to learn
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150. decimus785
4:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Link

can someone explain to me please,what the dotted circkle around the low pressure system at the west coast of africa means??? thanks...
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149. TheCaneWhisperer
4:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Personally, I think the most interesting and odd thing when this year is all done, will be TDNULL.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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