TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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249. extreme236
6:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
hey 456, convection increased a tad with the non tropical low the nhc is watching 1150mi east of bermuda
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
248. Weather456
2:50 PM AST on September 22, 2007
What an active Atlantic



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
247. Prgal
2:50 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Lol, its ok. I think John Doohey is in Miami working in Telemundo. But I am not sure about this.
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246. extreme236
6:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
the thing i saw in the gulf earlier is in the western gulf there was SAL
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
245. extreme236
6:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
CV system

image
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244. TerraNova
2:47 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I find it interesting that most of the models that have so far come out on 94L bend it back to the south in the middle of the GOM...this would give it much more time to intensify. The HWRF model demonstrates this scenerio perfectly...It has 94L bending back to the south in the central GOM and nearing Cat 1 status as a result.

What would cause this type of motion?
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243. tiggeriffic
6:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
PRgal, omg thank you, this guy is good and really wanted to see what he was saying. funny tho, my ex is from PR and my oldest son had 5 years of spanish and i can barely communicate...:-P
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242. Prgal
2:48 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Its not a perfect translation but I think it might work for you. Glad to be able to help :D
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241. seflagamma
2:47 PM AST on September 22, 2007
thanks
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240. groundman
6:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Prgal at 6:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
Tigger, I found a way! Google tormenta.net and click on "Translate this page". Voila!


I forgot about that approach!
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239. wederwatcher555
6:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
why isnt the cv wave an invest yet?? and 94L is..
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238. TerraNova
2:44 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
so the CV storm should be an invest or TD any time now huh?

I fully expect this to be an invest anytime now. As for TD; I'd give it another 12 hours before I start thinking about the NHC classifying this, just to make sure that this won't go poof (although the chances of this system dissapearing is low IMO).
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237. tiggeriffic
6:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
weather, that can build a pretty good sized storm, even if it encounters shear later in the week, it could gather enough oomff to not fizzle out if it did get into some shear
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236. Prgal
2:43 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Tigger, I found a way! Google tormenta.net and click on "Translate this page". Voila!
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235. seflagamma
2:42 PM AST on September 22, 2007
so the CV storm should be an invest or TD any time now huh?
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234. pablolopez26
6:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
How is it that 94L will not form into something more dangerous? Humberto taught us that anything and everything can happen along the GOM!
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233. seflagamma
2:41 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Conditions here in Weston FL right now:

Observed at: Weston, Florida
Elevation: 7 ft / 2 m

91.2 F / 32.9 C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 76 F / 25 C
Wind: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph / 12.9 km/h
Pressure: 29.94 in / 1013.8 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 104 F / 40 C

One would think all that rain yesterday and last night would cool things down a bit... no way... it feels like 104 outside right now! LOL


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232. extreme236
6:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 6:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

something interesting...the CV wave is expected to build an anticyclone over it pretty early in its development reducing shear significantly throughout the atlnatic trek.


could be a cane if that did in fact happen
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
231. pablolopez26
6:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Mandeli, that map rocked man!! Hopefully it stays as a depression and nothing more!!!
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230. Weather456
2:34 PM AST on September 22, 2007
something interesting...the CV wave is expected to build an anticyclone over it pretty early in its development reducing shear significantly throughout the atlnatic trek.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
229. tiggeriffic
6:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
if that high doesnt move much the lower east coast could be in the line of fire if/when that wave fires up. Not much in the way of hindering it as of now.
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228. moonlightcowboy
6:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: tiggeriffic at 6:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
hey cowboy, what is the line just to the north of the low by the cape verdes?


...I believe that shows the ridge of high pressure above what's probably our next invest, and likely helps keep it moving more westwards (at least in the near present).

Looks like we may be really busy again this week! Who said this season wasn't gonna be much? lol


--Hey, Drakoen, Patrap, all! Have a GR8 Saturday everyone!
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227. tiggeriffic
6:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
patrap, am trying to translate to english on tormenta.net
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226. Drakoen
6:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 6:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

CV wave cud become a TD before 94L.


yes. 94L will have to deal with land then it has to go an organize in the GOM within 2 days. The CV wave already has a closed SFC low.
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225. Patrap
1:31 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
wunderground translation Linkie...Link
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224. Weather456
2:30 PM AST on September 22, 2007
CV wave cud become a TD before 94L.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
223. Drakoen
6:30 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 6:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

CV wave is organizing more drak...maybe one last CV storm you thinking?


we could see 2 more CV waves develop i think. This one being the first.
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222. tiggeriffic
6:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
groundman, thanks for trying, cant get to any lang tools..not sure why but it was worth a shot
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221. extreme236
6:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
CV wave is organizing more drak...maybe one last CV storm you thinking?
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
220. TheCaneWhisperer
6:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: philliesrock at 5:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.


The best thing about that 12ZCMC you posted is the weakness in the ridge on the East Coast, unless you live in Bermuda that is.
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219. Drakoen
6:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
CV wave

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218. groundman
6:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: tiggeriffic at 6:09 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
any way to make tormenta.net into english?

google, language tools, think it's @ the bottom, put in url and spanish to english. Might not work well with graphics etc. I know on LONG German pages it give up about half way through and you have to copy and paste and put in box provided.
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217. Weather456
2:19 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Look at that low in the Wester Midetterean Sea by Spain

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
216. tiggeriffic
6:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
hey cowboy, what is the line just to the north of the low by the cape verdes? I know they change as the highs and lows do but that is running TOO close to chas right now...hope for us that trend changes within the next 2 weeks if it is a high that can suck a storm in
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215. tiggeriffic
6:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
would appreciate it, he is pretty good at forecasting, was more on for storms that hit PR than anyone else...I am double tabbing here...anyone else thinking the one south of cape verdes becoming 95 within 24 hours??? Not much shear out there to hinder it
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214. moonlightcowboy
6:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

72 hour sfc forecast.
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213. benirica
6:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
ja! would you look at that, he has a site.
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212. Prgal
2:12 PM AST on September 22, 2007
I dont see any way to make the site into english tiggeriffic. I will check again.
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211. tiggeriffic
6:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
any way to make tormenta.net into english?
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210. louisianaweatherguy
6:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
remnants from TD10 are over our area in SE LA... We actually got a Rain Shower!!! LOL...

Big Woptie Doo!!!

Now... 94L is already looking impressive for NOT EVEN HAVING a COC yet...

I'm a little worried about this one because it doesn't have to do the Subtropical to Tropical switch... It's ALREADY tropical in nature
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209. JLPR
6:02 PM GMT on Septiembre 22, 2007
shear

looks like shear is favorable for the one south of the Cape Verde islands
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208. groundman
4:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: OUSHAWN at 4:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
The YUC system has a very nice satellite representation in my opinion. However, that of course will change because of it having to spend time over land on the YUC..............................
.........................
I've seen some systems actually seem to become better organized by going over the YUC...time will tell and we will know more tomorrow.

Shawn

The Yucatan Peninsula looks to be about the same size across and shorter than FL, and as someone said the outer part of 94L is actually in the gulf already, I just don't think it's going to do much more than NOT intensify maybe while it's over the Yucatan. Just my pea brained assessment.

On another note, hubby just left Biloxi about an hour ago, lovebugs were still horrible, raining in Hattiesburg, I told him it probably would rain for awhile going N.
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207. wederwatcher555
5:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94L probably landfalls somewhere where Huberto did how come it cant become a minimum cane at the least?
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206. wederwatcher555
5:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
any1 think 94L can become something more than a TD/TS?
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205. Prgal
1:57 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Ohh, thought you didnt see it! No worries :D
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204. Prgal
1:56 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: heretolearninPR at 1:31 PM AST on September 22, 2007.

Has anyone here every heard of John Toohey Morales? He was originally from Puerto Rico and a consulting meteorologist for the English speaking radio station here for many years. I believe he got a job with Telemundo in MIami. The reason I bring this up is because he was almost always right on with the storms going to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Perhaps it was from growing up in the area and storm watching.


Go to www.tormenta.net
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203. JLPR
5:56 PM GMT on Septiembre 22, 2007
Posted By: stormybil at 5:56 PM GMT on Septiembre 22, 2007.
decimus785 at 5:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

95L today......

way posible by the way the low is looking
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202. heretolearninPR
5:55 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
TY PRgal
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
201. JLPR
5:55 PM GMT on Septiembre 22, 2007
Posted By: Finnmet at 5:55 PM GMT on Septiembre 22, 2007.
Whats your opinion about this cyclone in mediterranean sea.Possible subtropicale cyclone or just an impresiv extratropical low?


umm i think impresive extratropical low
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200. stormybil
5:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
decimus785 at 5:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

95L today......

i second that agree but will it go west the conditions are very favoble for thgis to be the next td 11
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199. Finnmet
5:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Whats your opinion about this cyclone in mediterranean sea.Possible subtropicale cyclone or just an impresiv extratropical low?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.