TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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299. Georges98
3:14 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Most notable Hurricane in the leeward Islands since 1980:
1980:Allen(cat 3 130 950 mb)
1989:Hugo(cat 4 140 mph 941 mb)
1995:Luis(135 mph 942 mb the largest and slowest)
1998:Georges(strong cat 4 then cat 3 966 mb)
2007:Dean(strong cat 2 965 mb)

Strange,the gap is 3,6 or 9 years...Possible the CV storm is next.
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298. Weather456
3:25 PM AST on September 22, 2007
CV Wave



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297. extreme236
7:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

right Extreme236 it formed with in the ITCZ.


Ah, so thats why its so low in latitude
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296. Drakoen
7:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
right Extreme236 it formed with in the ITCZ.
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295. Patrap
2:20 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
StormW is a featured Blogger now under Dr. Masters..in the Directory, here Link
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294. Drakoen
7:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
If you go to the new RAMSDIS web site although you can't see a large image. It definately shows a well structured system.
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293. Weather456
3:19 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: zoomiami at 3:14 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
456 - does that mean that the anti cyclone that is forecast will do more to help develop the system than to disrupt it?



Its a fact that an upper anticyclone helps establish outflow which promotes convergence and help develop the storm. A very large one was over Ernesto in 2006. Also an upper anticyclone is feature present on most hurricanes just like the eye, rainbands, CDO, etc.

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292. extreme236
7:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
actually, if you look at the nhc sfc map, there is no Twave associated with the low pressure
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291. Patrap
2:19 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
StormW has a Blog,..here Link
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290. benirica
7:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
question. wheres stormw? id like to read his input on this new wave
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289. StormJunkie
7:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Hurricanman at 7:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
Eww! Bad day in LSU Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA. It's pouring! I feel bad for the tailgaters, TD 10 has it in for them.


Good, good, we'll take all the help we can get!
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287. Drakoen
7:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Too early to tell if it is going to be a fish storm. At its current latitude that is highly unlikely.
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286. moonlightcowboy
6:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Blank
48 HOUR FORECAST You can see that the high over centered over the ne is building southeasterly. But, you can also the see the trough of low pressure moving se'ly across the mid-west. 94L is already showing (imo) some trough association and a northerly trend I believe is taking place. As the trough over the mid-west keeps moving se, and 94L strengthens, I do believe it's possible to influence its path in a more ne'ly direction. We'll see.

Hyper Text Transfer Protocol
94L's latest seems to be actually moving a bit more north than wnw.
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285. tiggeriffic
7:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
hit charleston as cat 4 almost 5, had friends at the navy base (before it closed), one said winds measuring 157mph almost consistantly, another was on a sub that broke loose from mooring lines, had to sink it in the ashley river
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284. Weather456
3:13 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 3:13 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
i know its completely too far out to know, this hasnt even formed yet so its impossible to know... but the models seem to want it to be a fish storm, or atleast miss us here in the islands.
thankfully


Track is another issue but it would be nice if its a fish storm.
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283. zoomiami
7:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
456 - does that mean that the anti cyclone that is forecast will do more to help develop the system than to disrupt it?
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282. benirica
7:10 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
i know its completely too far out to know, this hasnt even formed yet so its impossible to know... but the models seem to want it to be a fish storm, or atleast miss us here in the islands.
thankfully
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281. Weather456
3:10 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Another piece of info to note is that the only thing that can disrupt a well define upper anticyclone over a storm is an upper trough otherwise normal upper westerlies will just be deflected around the anticyclone.
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280. Georges98
3:04 PM AST on September 22, 2007
i know tiggeriffic about Hugo but 5 days before he
devasted Guadeloupe Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a strong cat 3/4 storm. For me Hugo is one of the 15 greatest hurricanes since 1950 to nowadays.
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279. Hurricanman
7:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Eww! Bad day in LSU Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA. It's pouring! I feel bad for the tailgaters, TD 10 has it in for them.
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278. Drakoen
7:11 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
More imagery.
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277. TerraNova
3:08 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I heard an anticyclone could develop with the system, which could help with the shear

GFS, NOGAPS, and WRF all forecast the development of an anticyclone over the CV system...good model agreement there.
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276. decimus785
7:09 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
probably the would name it an invest later today
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275. Weather456
3:08 PM AST on September 22, 2007
274. Drakoen
7:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
the CV wave is under 5-10kts of wind shear. And it looks to be establishing an upper level high.
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273. extreme236
7:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Updated imagery. I'm surprised its not an invest yet.


If it keeps organizing at this rate I wouldnt be surprised to see a TD in the next 24-36hrs
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272. extreme236
7:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: beell at 7:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

CV wave looks good. Shear may not be much of a factor for 5-6 days.
Might see the westerlies set up along 20N after that. 30-50kts per the GFS.
Similar to the conditions Ingrid encountered.


I heard an anticyclone could develop with the system, which could help with the shear
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271. Drakoen
7:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Updated imagery. I'm surprised its not an invest yet.

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270. beell
6:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
CV wave looks good. Shear may not be much of a factor for 5-6 days.
Might see the westerlies set up along 20N after that. 30-50kts per the GFS.
Similar to the conditions Ingrid encountered.
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269. seflagamma
3:03 PM AST on September 22, 2007
TerraNova thanks for the map of the models.
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268. Prgal
3:03 PM AST on September 22, 2007
There you go! Your memory is better than mine lol. I do remember that storm but I think that Hugo and Georges were the worse storms I have experinced.
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267. Georges98
2:55 PM AST on September 22, 2007
This CV waves looks impressive south of 10 north
It could be designed invest later today or tomorrow then a TD monday.
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266. seflagamma
3:02 PM AST on September 22, 2007
David was late August, early September 1979..
my youngest was born a Hurricane David baby on August 30 1979 (our watches went up as she was born)..
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265. matilda101
6:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I've looking at the area of disturb weather just NE of the NE Leeward Island. It appears that a spin at surface has develeped on the westside of the heavy thunderstorm activity that seems to be building to SE ward In the same general area Ingrid died (RIP) earlier this week. Any comments?
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264. TerraNova
3:01 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Updated model chart for 94L:

sfwmd
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263. Prgal
3:00 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Not officially. I do remember David and Federico though. It was around 78 or 79.
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262. weatherspirit
7:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Mediterranean low close-up... looks impressive...
Mediterranean Low
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261. tiggeriffic
6:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
every nine years...not good if this is your pattern prgal, what about before hugo...got any history on it?
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260. Prgal
2:59 PM AST on September 22, 2007
I agree 456, it was a scary experience here also.
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259. Weather456
2:56 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Georges98 at 2:55 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
9 years that we had powerful hurricane Georges in
Puerto Rico and virgin islands.


my God...I forgot....9 years it has been!? Georges rip right across my island- St Kitts on 19/20 September 1998...one very frightening storm.
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258. Prgal
2:56 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Last strong hurricanes in PR that I remember were: Hugo in 1989 and Georges in 1998. I wonder if the pattern will continue lol...what will happen in 2007? Lets wait and see.
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257. Drakoen
6:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Nice chart weather456.
I just looked at the Navy NOGAPS model 12z run and it continues to develop the CV wave. It appear to have it stronger than the previous run.
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256. decimus785
6:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
They say That the CV storm have the potential to become a TD early next week,this week isnt over yet,early next week is monday or tuesday,they should name this an invest before the end of this week.....
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255. tiggeriffic
6:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
18 years for charleston Georges98...last bad one here was Hugo
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254. Georges98
2:51 PM AST on September 22, 2007
9 years that we had powerful hurricane Georges in
Puerto Rico and virgin islands.
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253. benirica
6:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
what a good looking wave that cv one!
lets see what it can do.... this year systems have liked to fool around and look great then just commit suicide.
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252. tiggeriffic
6:52 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
someone earlier said he was on telemundo too

I am still looking at the wave south of CV islands...looking like it has a pretty good punch in there and wanting to go to the gym to work out.. :-P
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251. extreme236
6:53 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94L

image
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250. Weather456
2:52 PM AST on September 22, 2007
extreme236 ,

yeah i notice that just a few minutes ago...may still have a chance.
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249. extreme236
6:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
hey 456, convection increased a tad with the non tropical low the nhc is watching 1150mi east of bermuda
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.