TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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349. Drakoen
8:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I don't know about being a depression, but it definately deserves invest status.
Will be interesting to see what the NHC has to say at 5:30.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30815
348. benirica
8:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
StSimons. how low do you think the CV wave is?
by the way? i think systems can form that low, remember ivan?
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347. TerraNova
4:15 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 4:15 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

(image)


Skip the invest, this already looks like a depression!

5:30 TWO will be interesting, although I bet they'll say something like "some development is possible over the next few days".
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346. Tazmanian
1:13 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
579
NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-120

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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344. Drakoen
8:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30815
343. cattlebaroness
8:11 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Does the SAL factor follow it into the gulf after it crosses the yucatan? I was just wondering if that remained an issue after it crossed land.
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341. pablolopez26
8:11 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
CDM, what do you think is going to keep it from forming into something like a tropical storm or what not? Is it the short time its going to spend over water? Or the fact that it will be extremely disorganized when it moves off the yucatan?
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339. Drakoen
8:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Michael statistics cannot reflect the current conditions. If conditions are favorable for development. Then development can happen.
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337. Drakoen
8:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 8:00 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: Weather456 at 7:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Updated..System approaching DMAX

Isnt dmax the time shortly before sunrise? what time is it near cape verde?


Night just fell over the wave. And yes Diurnal max is before sunrise.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30815
336. Weather456
4:04 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 4:00 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
Posted By: Weather456 at 7:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Updated..System approaching DMAX

Isnt dmax the time shortly before sunrise? what time is it near cape verde?


oops...i jumped that one a little too earlier...its sunset in the CV islands..DMAX about 12 hrs from now.

BBL


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334. extreme236
8:00 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 7:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Updated..System approaching DMAX


Isnt dmax the time shortly before sunrise? what time is it near cape verde?
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
333. Weather456
3:58 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Updated..System approaching DMAX

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332. extreme236
7:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: cattlebaroness at 7:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

SAL?


SAL= saharan air layer

Basically, a type of dust that inhibits the development of convection, although stronger systems seem to have more resistance to it
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
330. pablolopez26
7:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Wow i know the LBAR model is not that reliable but that puts that disturbance right on top of Galveston pretty much... How quick of a landfall or how fast is this disturbance moving as of right now?
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329. cattlebaroness
7:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
SAL?
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327. blueranch
7:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Just watched tropical update on TWC... I'll neveer get that 5 minutes back...what a waste of time!!!!!!!!!!!
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326. extreme236
7:53 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: cattlebaroness at 7:52 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Dr. Mandeli thank you. What confuses me is why this storm will cross the entire gulf and not ramp up to stronger than a TS. Aren't the warm waters suppose to build up these storms?


Well, there is a question of how strong exactly the shear wil be and how bad the SAL/dry air is for this system
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
325. cattlebaroness
7:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Dr. Mandeli thank you. What confuses me is why this storm will cross the entire gulf and not ramp up to stronger than a TS. Aren't the warm waters suppose to build up these storms?
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324. moonlightcowboy
7:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
CDM, I think we're gonna see that track shift more easterly as the trough over the mid-west moves se'ly.
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323. louisianaboy444
7:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
As of now it looks like the models with 94L are taking it away from louisiana is this a more recent trend or are we just looking the other way because the models are wack right now?
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321. Drakoen
7:43 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
MLC most of the models are in agreement of a West-northwest track of this wave. Still a long way out.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30815
320. cattlebaroness
7:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Dr. Mandeli, Welcome back! I have been gone for most of the day. Could someone please tell me what the projected intensity is of 94L?

Much thanks.
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319. Eyewall911
7:30 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
CV wave is the most impresive this year starting out that far east! Can't believe it is not on the invest yet. Will be soon though, 5pm
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317. stormpetrol
7:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I just realised others are noticing this wave also.
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316. moonlightcowboy
7:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Drakoen, going back to that 48 hr sfc forecast map I posted a bit ago: With that high over the ne building towards the se, wouldn't it bridge with the Atl high forming a fairly strong ridge of high pressure over the Atl; therefore, keeping what is likely to be 95L on a more westerly path, and giving it considerably less chance of becoming a fish storm? Just got to looking at it closer, and thinking that with these conditions, we may be in store for a "one-two" punch? Thanks again for your thoughts!
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315. extreme236
7:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
to my knowledge, ingrid's remnants just dissapated
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
314. NorthxCakalaky
7:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 7:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Anyone one got a image of "lost Ingrid"?

I think ingrid is gone for good


everyone stop talking about it> has it greenland?
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313. stormpetrol
7:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
When does the CV Season end, Is it the end of SEPT., I see a wave just came off Africa looks the most promising I seen this season so far, including the ones that spawned Felix & Dean, kinda far South though.
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312. extreme236
7:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 7:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Anyone one got a image of "lost Ingrid"?


I think ingrid is gone for good
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
311. Weather456
3:36 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 3:35 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
yea it doesn't make sense oh well. On the old RAMSDIS you couldn't see anything at all now they give you a little picture LOL.


true
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310. NorthxCakalaky
7:34 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Anyone one got a image of "lost Ingrid"?
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309. westoftheashley
7:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
tiggeriffic, I have a blog up for stories on Hugo. Stop by and give your story. Lets hope that invest is a fish storm.
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308. Weather456
3:36 PM AST on September 22, 2007
WV..not much dry air to deal with..It seems late september has better conditions than early september, august and july

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307. Drakoen
7:34 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
yea it doesn't make sense oh well. On the old RAMSDIS you couldn't see anything at all now they give you a little picture LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30815
306. Weather456
3:30 PM AST on September 22, 2007
I wonder why they would have all that imagery available for the West Atlantic but restrict the eastern Atlantic...it makes no sense. Another thing..why wud they restrict the east atlnatic when u can get it from NOAA, EMUSAT, NRL, and some others..makes no sense.
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304. extreme236
7:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
its also nice to have all that NASA imagery...better than the SSD sometimes
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
303. extreme236
7:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

I wish i worked for RAMSDIS so i could get access to that imagery...


lol, it would be nice to have access the all that imagery
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
302. Drakoen
7:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Conditions near the CV wave

Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 F
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Wind Speed (WSPD): 14.0 kts
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30815
301. beell
7:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Yeah, It (CV wave)seems to have what it needs now.
not a fish
not a wish
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
300. Drakoen
7:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I wish i worked for RAMSDIS so i could get access to that imagery...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30815
299. Georges98
3:14 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Most notable Hurricane in the leeward Islands since 1980:
1980:Allen(cat 3 130 950 mb)
1989:Hugo(cat 4 140 mph 941 mb)
1995:Luis(135 mph 942 mb the largest and slowest)
1998:Georges(strong cat 4 then cat 3 966 mb)
2007:Dean(strong cat 2 965 mb)

Strange,the gap is 3,6 or 9 years...Possible the CV storm is next.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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