TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2599. taco2me61
10:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SayMoBEEL,
Yes me too... Sometimes I will just lurk but I will give some good advice when asked LOL...Although I do chat with JP alot for good info if you know what I mean...

Taco :0)
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2598. Tazmanian
3:35 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
whats not fight overe what time QS comes out whats talk about 96L and 97L any thing new
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2597. presslord
6:34 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Does anyone have the 'free time' to give me an 'undeducated' explanation of 'ascending' v. 'descending' as used in this context...
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2595. beell
10:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Less,
my grass is 8 ft tall and we have to "jiggle" stuff around here to get it to work...
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2594. NearTEXcoast
10:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Last question: any outlooks on future of 97L? Thanks again!
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2593. taco2me61
10:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It has stopped here for now but have been waiting on this all day.... LOL but at least I got my BBQ Baby Back Ribs done first....hehehe


Taco :0)
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2591. druseljic
5:30 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: LesterNessman at 5:28 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.
Guess I should apologize for my previous question, it seems to have offended some people. I did not realize there were that many folks that had all the free time to do all the research following the weather "for fun".


No need to apologize. We're all here to chat and have a good time and maybe learn a bit!
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2590. extreme236
10:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 10:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

and those quikscat passes are from 0700 UTC this morning...they are very old and out of date.


Exactly...the times on the QS passes are confusing...i guess its just easier to remember ascend in the morning, descend at night
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2589. Weather456
6:32 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 6:26 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
It doesn't matter which pass it is.

The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.


the time of the pass is at the bottom...and the time the image was generated is at the top.


so that is not the time of the quikscat.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2588. dearmas
6:23 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Lots of rain here in Tampa. Got poured on at the bucs game.
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2587. Weather456
6:30 PM AST on September 23, 2007
and those quikscat passes are from 0700 UTC this morning...they are very old and out of date.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2586. mobilebayal
10:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It is pouring right now. Really needed it.
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2585. SaymoBEEL
10:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
This site is what it is. The NHC and NWS have pros. I look at both. Even the outlier predictions are discussed here by the group and dicounted most of the time. Sometimes these outliers are fears many folks in the area have ,but are afraid to ask about. Discussing them, to a point, serves a purpose, too. Sometimes, as in Ivan for one, the outlier turns out to be true. Discussion and information exchange are what is important.
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2584. Tazmanian
3:29 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: heretolearninPR at 3:29 PM PDT on September 23, 2007.

Taz,

Has a T# been posted for 97L yet? Also, what is the link that I can use to see the latest T#s? Thanks


nop wait in tell 23:45
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2583. taco2me61
10:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
How are you MobileBay....:0)

I gess it is raining where you are uh???
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2582. extreme236
10:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

It doesn't matter which pass it is.

The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.


It does matter lol...QS only runs twice a day, ascending is in the morning...the time on there is not the time it is actually run
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2581. Weather456
6:27 PM AST on September 23, 2007
keep in mind..tonights quikscat is coming soon for 96L.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2578. heretolearninPR
10:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Taz,

Has a T# been posted for 97L yet? Also, what is the link that I can use to see the latest T#s? Thanks
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
2577. extreme236
10:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Extreme,

It is a low pressure, not a cyclone. I end it here.


I get that, although I wish QS I could have seen a QS pass
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2576. LesterNessman
10:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Guess I should apologize for my previous question, it seems to have offended some people. I did not realize there were that many folks that had all the free time to do all the research following the weather "for fun".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2575. taco2me61
10:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: SaymoBEEL at 10:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Thanks, My pet peave is hearing reporters say MObul (I bet yours, too)


LOL.... Good to see you two on here, its been a while but glade to see ya....

Taco :0)
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2574. sullivanweather
10:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Extreme,

It is a low pressure, not a cyclone. I end it here.
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2573. druseljic
5:26 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: LesterNessman at 5:08 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?



I agree with Patrap 100% -

Always consult your local NWS packages or the NHC for Official information.

But also remember this is a blog. Here you will find many levels of knowledge with respect to the tropics. A few here have a good amount of knowledge, while many like myself may discuss our slightly educated "guesses". We post our opinions and learn as we go. There are others here especially during busy times who just throw out completely wishful guesses. Have fun enjoy and enjoy the blog, but for real weather forecasts, take Pats advice. Consult your local weather forecaster or the NHC.
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2572. NearTEXcoast
10:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks, eye
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2571. sullivanweather
10:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It doesn't matter which pass it is.

The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.
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2570. Tazmanian
3:14 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
this is where i got it from you see 94L 96L 97L and so on it takes you right too the QS # you want like storm 96 or storm 97 and so on

Link
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2569. extreme236
10:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
a depression can be elongated...TD4 was elongated as well
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2568. benirica
10:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
thats what i wanted to get at... its still a broad circulation, but getting better.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
2566. extreme236
10:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Extreme,

As you can see from the QuikSCAT data the low is elongated W-E from 25-28W longitude


That was the ascending pass...I never said it wasnt elongated any, im just saying something may have changed
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2565. eye
10:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94l is just a unorganized rainmaker due to the shear from the ULL off the Texas coast, the ULL is also rocketing the moisture up to LA/MS
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2564. extreme236
10:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
well, I guess QS missed it...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2563. beell
10:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
old, obsessed hobbyist with 15 yrs of self-paced/home-schooled internet based education.

although this type of curriculum has led to large fundamental gaps in my knowledge...which is why this is a great site. Either gently, or w/a blowtorch, someone will set you straight. Or, we can always wait for the hindcast.
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2562. sullivanweather
10:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Extreme,

As you can see from the QuikSCAT data the low is elongated W-E from 25-28W longitude
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2561. eye
10:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
QS just looks ok
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2560. NearTEXcoast
10:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good afternoon, any more info on the future of 94L from anyone? Thanks.
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2559. presslord
6:18 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
stormjym...somewhere west of France...lol...
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2558. Sfloridacat5
10:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L could easily kick T.D. 10's butt.
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2557. benirica
10:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i sure hope that 96L is a fish storm... it would be very good news... because if it ramps up it could be a big one.
hopefully we jinx it, because we called for ingrid to be huge and she died... so keep calling for a monster and you might just scare it off
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
2556. Tazmanian
3:18 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
they did 236 here is the new update has of 20:13

Ascending Pass



Descending Pass looks like it miss it


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2555. extreme236
10:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormyjm at 10:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Taz, press, extreme, et all.... your opinions of landfall, just a guess, know it's too soon to know, but just a humble guess...


My guess is that it effects the antilles, but after that I cant really guess anymore lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2554. extreme236
10:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
that was the ascending pass
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2552. sullivanweather
10:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
QuikSCAT
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2551. extreme236
10:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Taz and extreme,

Well-organized doesn't necessarily dignify an upgrade to a tropical cyclone.

The low pressure is still elongated W-E along several degrees of longitude. I certainly wouldn't classify it as a 'cyclone'


If anything it looks more elongated N-S, but I guess they might want to see the QS pass to see how the LLC looks
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2550. OUSHAWN
10:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I can't believe the center of 94L is just now coming off the YUC...I thought it did that this morning. Now I know why it wasn't able to do anything...it's been on land all day but I can finally see the circulation showing up...finally. See, I was wrong on this one as far as where the circulation has been all day.

Shawn
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2549. SouthCentralTex
5:15 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Taz, give the NHC some time. The storm is far enough out to where they have plenty of time to designate it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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