TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 399 - 349

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

399. Tazmanian
1:43 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
the nhc was talking about BERMUDA and now that wave out there by BERMUDA is 95L so the CV wave will be 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
398. ebzz
4:43 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
anyone have a satellite image of 95L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
397. Drakoen
8:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Looks like this one will have to wait.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
396. wederwatcher555
8:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L might as well be on jupiter.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
395. youradjuster
8:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95l hasn't made it to WUG yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
394. TerraNova
4:43 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: TerraNova at 8:39 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
"The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system. Thats from the Doc himself, im not making that stuff up!!!"

I don't care who that "forecast" was from because the OFFICIAL forecast for Port Aransas, TX on Mon is ZERO percent chance of rain on Mon and 30% on Tue.

That is HARDLY "heavy rains Mon and Tue".

This guy must be wishcasting hype machine also.


That was a quote...somebody else posted that comment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
392. Stormchaser2007
8:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L has just been declared by the Navy site as the Sub tropical thing 1000 miles east of bermuda....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
391. wederwatcher555
8:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L is a fish lol.....forget about it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
389. Tazmanian
1:41 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
95L is not the CV was i think its the one out by BERMUDA
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
388. PensacolaDoug
8:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I haven't "ignored" anyone yet... I figure every now and then everyone must have something interesting to contribute.

Very idealistic. Hang here for a short while and you'll discover the usefulness of the "ignore" button.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
387. Drakoen
8:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L is on the area in the mid atlantic LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
384. wederwatcher555
8:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L BABY!!!!! YAYE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
383. TerraNova
4:41 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Umm...where exactly is this? Is this the wrong image?

65l
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
382. Stormchaser2007
8:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Image from the ISS of Felix as cat 5....
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
381. wederwatcher555
8:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
will these atlantic waves be repeats of ingrid getting shredded to spaghetti or maybe even fish storms. its basically october isnt it pretty remote these will hit the U.S.?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
380. Tazmanian
1:41 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
95L is now the CV wave i think
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
379. cattlebaroness
8:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Rockme, thank you. And personally I think what youradjuster said is kind of the whole thing that I am having a problem with. How can it cross so much warm water and not be at least a hurricane. I also accept that if everyone including Dr. Masters says it won't be the case, then it won't. I personally stayed up all night watching Humberto and had emailed Dr. Masters asking the chance this blob had to making a hurricane. he emailed, before Humberto got busy, that only two had done so in history, but they were cat 4 and cat 5. So I guess I am curious why this one would not. Sm, thanks also, I, like any woman, hates to be ignored.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
378. Tazmanian
1:39 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
95L is up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
377. Tazmanian
1:36 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
what talk about the CV wave
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
376. TerraNova
4:36 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Thats from the Doc himself, im not making that stuff up!!!


He's talking about the 12z run of the SHIPS. The 18z SHIPS takes this into Cat 1 status; the Doctor hasn't updated his blog yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
375. Drakoen
8:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
374. smmcdavid
3:36 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Very funny...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
373. TerraNova
4:33 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Terra, I don't recognize some of the names on that model, but I like looking at it. Do some of the models not come out until this system is further evolved? So none of them are saying it will hit Cat 1?

These are the intensity versions of the spaghetti models, so these graphics include many more models then just the GFS (also known as AVNO) HWRF, and GFDL.

I'd discount the SHIPS as it dosn't even take land into account as proximity to the Yucatan will likely slow down or prevent development until this is well into the Gulf. So, yes, none of the reliable models currently take this into hurricane strength but some do take it pretty close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
371. Rick54
3:33 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Why Houston? Are we a target here?

Why not?

Does anyone know the forecast for shear in the W. GOM for the next few days?

I too was surprised about the Monday landfall especially if it tracks to the Northern Gulf. All the models show it to be much slower except maybe the BAMM
370. pablolopez26
8:33 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Thats from the Doc himself, im not making that stuff up!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
369. smmcdavid
3:32 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Why Houston? Are we a target here? This thing is still a few days away and the path isn't really known, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
367. Joshfsu123
8:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94L= Nothing has developed yet and until something does, no reason to overreact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
366. youradjuster
8:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Guys & Gals,

Its approx 700 miles across the GOM to Houston. For this to travel that far in 24 hours it would be moving around 29 MPH I personally do not see it moving that fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
364. cattlebaroness
8:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Terra, I don't recognize some of the names on that model, but I like looking at it. Do some of the models not come out until this system is further evolved? So none of them are saying it will hit Cat 1?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
363. smmcdavid
3:28 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
I haven't "ignored" anyone yet... I figure every now and then everyone must have something interesting to contribute.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
361. cattlebaroness
8:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Thanks screedy, but now probably half of the folks out there have now put me on ignore, cause I admitted I know nothing. Oh well...:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
360. decimus785
8:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
if in march 2004 a hurricane formed in the south atlantic and crashed into brazil,why cant any other storm do the same??
359. pablolopez26
8:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Well we'll see i guess... So by tomorrow this thing should already be over the Yucatan Peninsula? And then by Monday afternoon a landfall here in Houston? Thats pretty quick for something thats so far out...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
358. eye
8:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
also, the Ships model does not take into account land.....so technically, Ships can say this thing will be a Cat 5 in Michigan.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
357. sceerdycat
4:23 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Well said, baroness!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
356. Drakoen
8:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Thanks for the update Jeff.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
354. TerraNova
4:21 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Intensity forecasts for 94L...only the SHIP takes it into Cat 1 status and that model is notorious for overintensifying systems...but intensity is a very unpredictable value, keep that in mind.

eluer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
353. cattlebaroness
8:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I appreciate everyone's opinion. Rockme, can you say what you think the intensity will be of 94L. Dr. Mandeli's read on this is welcomed as well. Since i can only observe I appreciate that everyone approaches these storms from different orientations. Don't most of the models, kind of disagree early on also. I am just trying to learn which means I am glad when anyone offers an opinion. And Dr. Mandeli is alway polite enough to answer me. Thank you both for the responses.

Intensity opinions anyone?

Hey Groundman u have mail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
352. stoormfury
8:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
while most of us are glued on to a system which is over 8 days from the islands and about 12 days from the USA, my interest lies with the catl wave which has the potetial to develop and impact the lesser antilles in two days time. recent frames are suggesting that the system is getting better organised and needs to be monitored closely. the system is quite big and will affect a large areaof the lesser antilles
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
351. eye
8:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
extreme, there is no SAL in the GULF.....
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
349. Drakoen
8:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I don't know about being a depression, but it definately deserves invest status.
Will be interesting to see what the NHC has to say at 5:30.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887

Viewing: 399 - 349

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.