TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 499 - 449

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

499. Tazmanian
2:38 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
did any one seen this part about the CV wave? where is 96L i say 96L by 11pm tonight


THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
498. extreme236
9:39 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Yea, we saw Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta become fully tropical in waters that were supposedly not warm enough for something to become fully tropical
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
497. icepilot
4:38 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Thanks LC - I'm glad someone looked - I sometimes get tired of "it's only a fish storm"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
495. Weather456
5:36 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: eye at 5:27 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
1-800-INVESTS

NHC hotline


LOL...some ppl may take it serious.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
494. mississippiwx23
9:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Michael,

They mentioned it so you know it wont develop. They usually mention any area where development might look like it might occur, and then explain it. In that instance, they are saying development will not occur with that cluster of storms.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
493. extreme236
9:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
oh wait, your talking about the one that is about to come off arent you eye? if they talk about that one they will do that tomorrow if it looks good
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
492. Tazmanian
2:33 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
By: MichaelSTL at 2:31 PM PDT on September 22, 2007.

or you can call the nhc

Again, I bet that all of your emails go right into their Spam folder... you do not try to tell the NHC what to do... and you don't use the name Tazmanian when emailing them?


would you be mad if i said no?


nop i do not ues my name Tazmanian when emailing them
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
490. extreme236
9:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: eye at 9:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

they didnt mention the wave coming off Africa Taz, will you email NHC about that? Thanks!


they mentioned the CV wave...it was the thing they said was 550mi south of the cape verde islands
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
489. cattlebaroness
9:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Cane Doc, you have mail.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
487. LightningCharmer
9:34 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
icepilot, Nice plot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
486. extreme236
9:33 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
so I imagine the CV wave will become 96L soon enough
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
484. mississippiwx23
9:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



I love that statement when they have 5 areas they are watching. So in other words, all the areas where there are no clouds, we won't see development. LOL
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
483. Tazmanian
2:30 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
481. Bobbyweather
5:32 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Most active day on the NHC!!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
479. icepilot
4:32 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
You ask - Why an invest in the middle of nowhere?

Posted By: CanePredictor at 4:21 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

Why wont the NHC label and invest way up north like that when it wont harm anyone? Besides we have other contenders for an invest declaration...


Posted By: louisianaboy444 at 4:02 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

yeah just remember any system will at least affect someone even if it is just shipping interest....i think the ships out there deserve to know if there is something brewing out there so yeah naming this an invest was the right decision no doubts about it


Posted By: Drakoen at 3:54 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

95L might knock of a name on the list.. Thats it ...maybe it will cruise by some ships LOL.


Here is an indication of the number of ships in the atlantic at any one time

Amver Density Plot Display
August 2007
Legend
Each colored dot displayed on the chart approximates a one-degree cell (60 minutes of latitude by 60 minutes of longitude) and is referred to as a "cell" in the legend below.
Monthly density plot totals:
Red Cells: The monthly plot totaled over 50 vessels
Orange Cells: The monthly plot totaled between 15 and 49 vessels
Green Cells: The monthly plot totaled between 5 and 14 vessels
Blue Cells: The monthly plot totaled 4 or fewer vessels
Empty Cells: No vessels

Surface plot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
478. extreme236
9:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
i think the tropics exploded lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
477. Weather456
5:31 PM AST on September 22, 2007
the longest TWO, I have seen in a good while. (maybe since 2005).
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
476. LightningCharmer
9:30 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 9:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Because its in the Atlantic basin. The NHC has a responsibility of tracking any and all tropical threats no matter where they are

Very true - it doesn't have to be a threat to land, especially the United States (as most people don't really care if a storm is anywhere else); a storm is a storm regardless of where it is.


Almost everything that is imported or exported travels via ship. The shipping industry pays close attention to these storms whether they affect land or not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
475. Weather456
5:30 PM AST on September 22, 2007
BNT20 KNHC 222127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AND YET ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE


there's something u dont see every day
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
474. Drakoen
9:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
the NHC appears to be a little busy LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
471. Drakoen
9:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AND YET ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
468. Drakoen
9:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
yea Taz on 95L.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
467. louisianaboy444
9:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
an invest is by defintion an area of interest that could possibly develop it doesnt say anything about location requirements. Yes i think the NHC is looking for persistance with this Cape Verde wave in which they should... They have plenty of time with this system...and 95L could affect shipping interest and which people forget how important shipping really is or how dangerous it can be sometimes so 95L deserves to be named
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
466. mississippiwx23
9:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
First, there are enough invests at any one time that we don't have to worry about running out of invest numbers. Second, any tropical system is a tropical system. It doesnt matter if it is in the central atlantic going out to sea or in the gulf about to hit New Orleans. It's still tropical. Third, we have as many names as we can use as well. In 2005 we went through the entire alphabet and we just switched to the greek alphabet. It doesn't matter if they name it or not, does it really change anything? The atlantic storm is there, no matter if it is named or not. Might as well name it to bring mariners (sp) more attention to it if it is indeed going to intensify.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
464. Tazmanian
2:25 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
and i see there is now a 1000mb low it was 1008mb so looks like the mb drop 8mbs and its now 1000mbs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
461. Drakoen
9:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
460. Drakoen
9:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
458. Tazmanian
2:21 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
By: Drakoen at 2:19 PM PDT on September 22, 2007.

No Taz lol. don't email. Just wait, be patient, use the sites you have. Besides the NHC is the one that declares invests the Navy just hosts them.


or you can call the nhc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
454. sullivanweather
9:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Canepredictor,

Because its in the Atlantic basin. The NHC has a responsibility of tracking any and all tropical threats no matter where they are in the Atlantic Ocean basin and the East Pacific out to 140W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
453. redrobin
9:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Maybe just maybe-one of the protocals of an invest is where it is in regards to land and people. If that is the issue then the one closest to Africa would be last. Maybe that is it. None of them are ramped up to storms or even depressions as of yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
452. Drakoen
9:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The pressure on the CV wave dropped 2mb from the 12z map to the 18Z map. CV wave now at 1010mb.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
451. CanePredictor
9:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Why wont the NHC label and invest way up north like that when it wont harm anyone? Besides we have other contenders for an invest declaration...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
449. stormpetrol
9:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I agree with Drakoen, that wave south of the CV is best looking wave so far this season as far I'm concerned looks way more promising than Dean or Felix ever did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 499 - 449

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.