TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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549. Weather456
6:12 PM AST on September 22, 2007
African Low



95L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
548. mississippiwx23
10:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Question for whomever,

Do they have to wait for the storm to get to a certain longitude before they can declare it an invest? They cant really put one of their floaters over it until it is in the GOES east region. Or, if a storm develops that far east, do they just jump straight to depression status? It seems this should be an invest right now, considering its structure. 94L definately does not look as nice, except it is much closer to land.
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547. Tazmanian
3:07 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
by 23:45 thats when we sould have 96L on the navy site
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546. Bobbyweather
6:09 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
JP, did you mean 36W, or further north?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
544. wederwatcher555
10:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
they say the cv wave may become a TD but it isnt even designated an invest...WOW...
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543. Tazmanian
3:04 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
ok JP and Drakoen
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542. NorthxCakalaky
10:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Is the weather service alowed to issue storm warnings for Greenland?I know we dont own them.

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541. flaboyinga
10:00 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I was there from '61 to '65. some of it in the weather gang on a CLG and a CVA. Rode thru one N.Atlantic hurricane on CLG-4.
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540. Tazmanian
3:02 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 3:00 PM PDT on September 22, 2007.

I don't understand why the CV wave is not an invest yet, with all this data coming in. oh well.


they will they will it will be 96L by the 10pm if not tonight then 1st thing sunday or some time on sunday for sure but will have it for sure
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538. Drakoen
10:02 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:02 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

dos 94L or 95L have a closed SFC circulation???


That quicksat won't come out for a few hours. might misses 95L...
The CV wave has a good circulation though a bit broad but there.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
537. Tazmanian
2:59 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
dos 94L or 95L have a closed SFC circulation???
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536. Drakoen
10:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Navy NOGAPS model track on the CV wave.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
535. Bobbyweather
6:02 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
STL- did they form at the same time?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
534. Bobbyweather
6:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 5:59 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

dont feed the trolls Bobby

I won't. I never will even if they ban me for it.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
533. Drakoen
10:00 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I don't understand why the CV wave is not an invest yet, with all this data coming in. oh well.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
532. NorthxCakalaky
9:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
wow they realy desinated the low 95l that far north.What next? Greenland is under a tropical storm watch?
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531. mississippiwx23
9:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Michael,

Thank you for that description of Epsilon and Zeta...definately not what the NHC expected.

Wow, that is a nice circulation. Definately an invest soon.
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527. icepilot
4:57 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: flaboyinga at 4:56 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

Icepilot that was a great reminder about the souls at risk on the water. I'm sure that some of us chased those dots around for years at a time. I hope StormW sees the chart. (Memories)

Ya, I was a member of Uncle Sam's Confused Group for 30+ yrs
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525. Drakoen
9:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
524. InTheCone
9:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Drak., 456, et al. -
Thanks for the great sat. photos and graphics - I never have to leave this blog to get all the info. I want.

Now - a question for you history buffs - how often has a developed storm made it all the way across the Atlantic to the islands at this time of year. I know it's rare. I even remember when Ivan formed - way out there - that the pundits said it was highly unusual for a developed system to make it that far(and as I recall it was further west) without recurving. Any insights??
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523. flaboyinga
9:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Icepilot that was a great reminder about the souls at risk on the water. I'm sure that some of us chased those dots around for years at a time. I hope StormW sees the chart. (Memories)
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522. Drakoen
9:55 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
New Quicksat imagery shows the CV wave has a closed SFC circulation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
521. mississippiwx23
9:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
RockMeLikeAHurricane,

I think that person was trying to say the wave looks better at that longitude than Felix or Dean did, not that it will become a Cat 5.
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519. icepilot
4:53 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Off the AMVER website - they do monthly density plots
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518. Bobbyweather
5:54 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
It would be interesting if all 4 formed at the same time.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
516. Bobbyweather
5:53 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
RockMeLikeAHurricane, there is never 0% chance. There has to be a chance. Something like 0.1%.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
515. Swells22
9:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hey Ice Pilot, was that COADS, AMVERS. or what? Nice plot of shipping lanes!
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513. mississippiwx23
9:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Reasonably, I don't doubt 3 if the mid-atlantic storm can become tropical enough and if the gulf storm doesn't move too quickly. If many of the models are right that it might stall before reaching the coast, we could have a big problem on our hands. That southern movment the hwrf has is very un-nerving. A 4th is probably pushing it.
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512. Weather456
5:47 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 5:47 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
456 that map olny updates at 10:30pm and 11:30am olny


i know...but it points out the locations fairly good.

_____________________________________________


I think that 2 of the 4 will become TD next week. What are the chances of all becoming TDs? (Rhetorical)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
511. eye
9:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Michael, both look pretty fishy to me, which is great! 3 fish and the Carribean blob!
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510. Tazmanian
2:47 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
ok STL
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509. Bobbyweather
5:46 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I think I agree with Taz. They said slow to occur. I think 4 named storms will form next week. (meaning the wk of Sept 24)
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
508. Tazmanian
2:45 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
456 that map olny updates at 10:30pm and 11:30am olny
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506. stormpetrol
9:43 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
WOW! The 5:30 PM update is all a buzz, the most for the season so far. If this keeps up they'll soon run out of "Ls" Just kidding, Have a nice weekend everyone.
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505. Drakoen
9:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The NHC has their work cut out for them. We could see 2-3 names storms.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
504. Tazmanian
2:43 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
i think we will see 4 new name storms this week
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503. Bobbyweather
5:43 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Epsilon was a surprise hurricane. NHC predicted this to weaken into a remnant low, (right?).
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
502. Weather456
5:41 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
501. LightningCharmer
9:39 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: icepilot at 9:39 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Thanks LC - I'm glad someone looked - I sometimes get tired of "it's only a fish storm"


I do as well. I've had always heard them called, "ship storms." This blog was the first time I heard or read the usage, "fish storms."
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500. pablolopez26
9:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Come on guys, cant we all just get along?? Some poeple here take this blog WAY too seriously... Its all for our help guys, not our personal reputations as wanna-be mets!!! Come on now...
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499. Tazmanian
2:38 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
did any one seen this part about the CV wave? where is 96L i say 96L by 11pm tonight


THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.