TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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599. Tazmanian
3:53 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
cv wave sould be 96L
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598. mobilebayal
10:53 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Bye Rock!
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597. groundman
10:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
If the NHC is monitoring this blog they are having a heyday, now, let's name another fish storm and see if we can get a fistfight started on the blog, maybe they'll meet @ the wal mart parking lot!!

Yeah, Joe and the next hurricane we get lets wait till the VERY last possible moment to say the models may be out to lunch on this one?? OK Larry, that way they will curse us for days??


OK Joe, and maybe we could throw in a TD10 and pretend that we don't know where the COC is because it isn't going to do anything but rain everywhere anyway so might as well have fun with the people on the blog, they will be finding the COC all the way down to Cuba.

And that one that's actually close to the US, lets just pretend we don't see it for a day or so??

Tongue in cheek completely. Back to my cave since I've managed to probably insult everyone here and @ the NHC. Sorry if I missed anyone including myself. LOL
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595. weathersp
6:51 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky
Dude..

You dont have to call people stupid for what they say.Thats rude.

You dont like their statement, ingonore them or block them.


and BINGO was his name oh.
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594. seafarer459
10:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I guess you can now count me among the lame
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593. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
report as well see ya
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592. StormJunkie
10:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Afternoon all ☺

Just on a flyby to take my crow!

Congrats to all you LSU fans. As every one knows y'all got some good backs, but I was very impressed with the O and D lines!

All that said, we did everything we could to help y'all out today. Dropped INTs. Missed 4th &inches. Poor QB play in the first half etc.

Look forward to another crack at it in Hotlanta!

See y'all tonight. Going to have to get caught on the invests.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
589. Swells22
10:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hey retaining, SST around 85 in W GOMEX but I think it's mixed down pretty deep - what's that called again? Hurricane juice?
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584. retaining1
10:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The water temperature ahead of 94L is 84-86 deg.F across the entire western gulf, all the way to the Texas / Louisiana coast.

I hope the projections are accurate for landfall on Monday evening and two days of rain. 94L will have to travel at 20 mph + to cross the gulf in that short of time period.

There appears to be a fair amount of moisture moving into the western gulf from old Mexico too. We certainly don't want this storm to sit at sea for an extra day. At 20 mph, 94L won't be able to organize. Any stalling or slowing in forward speed would give it the right conditions for growth.
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583. NorthxCakalaky
10:43 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
09/21/2007 0602 PM

1 miles se of Marianna, Jackson County.

Tornado, reported by law enforcement.


Tornado reported north of Interstate 10 outside Marianna
near the walmart.



The place...
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576. seflagamma
6:37 PM AST on September 22, 2007
and last night TD10 was forcasted to go west all day and right up until landfall was forcast to go west...it went NW and it was very weak.
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575. Tazmanian
3:33 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
The first tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity in the satellite era developed in the South Atlantic on 25 March and struck the southern coast of Brazil in Santa Catarina State with unofficial sustained winds of 75 knots early on 28th. Two people were confirmed dead and five fishermen were feared dead after their ship sank off the coast. At least 200 homes were destroyed and 2000 damaged according to an Associated Press report.

Tropical analysts at the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) derived 11 position and intensity estimates on the tropical cyclone, dubbed Catarina by Brazilian meteorologists, and seven phone coordination calls were held with satellite meteorologists at the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC). All estimates were also disseminated via the SSD website. Satellite intensity estimates suggesting maximum sustained winds of 75 knots for the 30 hours leading up to landfall agreed well with unofficial observations at the time of landfall

Satellite Analysis Branch estimated positions and intensity for South Atlantic storm:


Date/Time Lat Lon Dvorak Estimate (FT/CI)
25/2009Z 28.8S 42.3W T3.0/3.0
25/2339Z 28.7S 42.6W T3.0/3.0
26/0639Z 28.7S 43.1W T3.5/3.5
26/1145Z 28.9S 43.7W T4.0/4.0
26/1709Z 29.0S 44.3W T4.5/4.5
26/2300Z 29.0S 44.8W T4.5/4.5
27/0639Z 29.3S 45.6W T4.5/4.5
27/1145Z 29.5S 46.4W T4.5/4.5
27/1745Z 29.6S 47.4W T4.5/4.5
27/2309Z 29.3S 48.2W T4.5/4.5
28/0639Z 28.9S 49.7W OVERLAND
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574. seflagamma
6:35 PM AST on September 22, 2007
this theory that a stronger storm will tend to turn more NW than a weak one ...well do you recall Cat 5 Dean and Felix..those made a bee line due west even when forcasted to take a more WNW track...never made the turn.
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573. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
potenial exsists for the development of a R.I.S. off the yuc trackin nennw during dirunal max tonight
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572. zoomiami
10:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
when the 4 storms formed in 98 I thought it was like living in an egg beater!
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571. decimus785
10:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
the storm east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles looks good.
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570. mississippiwx23
10:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
No, we can't, but a storm that develops quickly has a much more likely shot at turning before reaching land than a weak system. That is my point.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
569. Eyewall911
10:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
too far south to be a fish my opinion
568. Drakoen
10:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
There is absolutely no way to tell if this thing is going out to sea.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
567. mississippiwx23
10:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: mississippiwx23 at 10:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Thanks, just wondering. Probably an invest after I get back from the Mississippi St. football game. Something exciting to come back to.

I wouldn't get my hopes up...


Talking about Mississippi State football eh? lol

Not like it really matters if it is an invest or not, the storm is still there. I will be interested to see if it holds together tonight. Likely though, as some one just said above, it will go out to sea, so not something to worry about too much at this point. We should be more concerned if it holds itself together, but doesn't really get going for another 3-5 days.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
566. Drakoen
10:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
You can see where the circulation is.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
564. Thundercloud01221991
10:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
does anyone have a radar animation of TD 10s landfall
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562. Drakoen
10:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: mississippiwx23 at 10:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Thanks, just wondering. Probably an invest after I get back from the Mississippi St. football game. Something exciting to come back to.


I wouldn't get my hopes up...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
561. Tazmanian
3:17 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
22/1430 UTC 21.2N 113.9W T1.0/1.0 L -- East Pacific Ocean
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559. mississippiwx23
10:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Thanks, just wondering. Probably an invest after I get back from the Mississippi St. football game. Something exciting to come back to.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
558. Swells22
10:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Ice pilot & fla boy - I got respect for Uncle Sam's dingy fleet. Friend of mine in the Merchant Marine said he was on a tanker that should do 17 kts but given the storm, was going backwards at 3. Hauled off and nearly went over on beam ends, over 45 deg roll. Walkin' on the walls, man!
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557. wederwatcher555
10:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94L is probably the only area of concern out of all these many areas. even the CV wave probably pulls an ingrid and gets shredded or goes the way of the fishes
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556. Drakoen
10:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
555. Tazmanian
3:12 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
i have noted that the West Pacific INVEST has to have a T # of 1.0 or higher to be put on the Floater if it says TOO WEAK then they wont put them on the Floater but thats how they do in for the West Pacific INVEST
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553. Weather456
6:14 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Invest can be name at any longitude...look at 96L Invest which became Debby last year.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
552. icepilot
5:10 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
The Providence huh, My first was in '69 Ocean Station Echo on CGC Boutwell - a 378' - Loved walking on the bulkheads, but I was young then
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551. JLPR
10:10 PM GMT on Septiembre 22, 2007
i see that low presure to the north became 95l before the one south of the CV islands then that would be 96l soon i think
the one east of the islands looks good too
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
549. Weather456
6:12 PM AST on September 22, 2007
African Low



95L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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