TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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649. extreme236
11:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Also, I looked at the 12.5km pass...shows a lot of rain contaminated barbs, although I saw some 30-35kt barbs and even an isolated 45kt barb
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
648. KoritheMan
11:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
ECG, if you are reading, even though I can't see you, you see? I was right. I told you I thought it'd become 94L, and yet you berated me for supposedly not giving info. The info was clearly there, you just didn't care to hear it.
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646. NorthxCakalaky
11:30 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 11:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

I just read this.Before i was going to make one.

Important! You may not include your poll or links to your poll in any
email messages, or your poll will be subject to removal from our service
and you could be banned from using our service in the future.

?


That just says not to email the poll to a bunch of people (i.e. spam)... posting a link on a blog is not the same as email... I have used it as well with no problems.



Okay.Thanks.
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645. extreme236
11:30 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
yep, QS confirms a closed low south of the CV islands...although a lot of rain contaminated barbs, so I cant tell the wind speeds
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
644. InTheCone
11:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Taz -

Interesting insight - could change the whole pic in the CATL next week.
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643. extreme236
11:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I would like to see some dvorak estimates...looks like 94L is moving toward the coast or even overland now and should come off by morning time
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
641. extreme236
11:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: TampaSpin at 11:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 11:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

area SE of the antilles getting more organized should have 96 and 97L soon enough, its going to be an active sunday folks!

Thats pretty Extreme isn't it.....lol


lol, I guess it is extreme out there, extreme enough for the TWO to say it was getting more active
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
640. TerraNova
7:27 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
WRF develops 94L into a weak TS and has it moving northwestward in the general direction of the Brownsville area.

wrf
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639. NorthxCakalaky
11:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: earthlydragonfly at 11:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Im bored a dang lightning storm WAS heading my way and fizzled so no lightning shots tonight I dont believe


lol, same here. Too much dry air in N.C. I did get some cloud pictures.
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638. philliesrock
7:26 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Who was the person that voted California on my poll...LOL
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637. BahaHurican
7:22 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
The more interesting thing about that NAtl storm for us in the long run is that it looks to kick all the highs and lows in front of it (east, I mean) totally out of the way. So longterm, say Wednesday, highs normally over Bermuda and the Azores are likely to be down around 20 and 30 N . . . I'm not sure how that would affect development in the CAtl.
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636. TampaSpin
11:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
My guess the low in Canada is things to show of a very bad winter in the Northern Hemph.
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635. earthlydragonfly
7:25 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Im bored a dang lightning storm WAS heading my way and fizzled so no lightning shots tonight I dont believe
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634. earthlydragonfly
7:24 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Could you repost the link please and I will poll
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633. TampaSpin
11:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 11:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

area SE of the antilles getting more organized should have 96 and 97L soon enough, its going to be an active sunday folks!

Thats pretty Extreme isn't it.....lol
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632. NorthxCakalaky
11:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: philliesrock at 11:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Poll about hurricane season for anyone who hasn't voted yet:

Link



I just read this.Before i was going to make one.

Important! You may not include your poll or links to your poll in any
email messages, or your poll will be subject to removal from our service
and you could be banned from using our service in the future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
631. earthlydragonfly
7:23 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
That is one big Hurricane in Canada.... LMAO cat 7 lol
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630. extreme236
11:22 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
area SE of the antilles getting more organized should have 96 and 97L soon enough, its going to be an active sunday folks!
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
629. TampaSpin
11:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 11:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Does the NHC atlantic wide view not loading for everyone else or is it just my computer..

I can view it, but the date says September 21st at 13:15 UTC.

Did you try a loop ....
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628. philliesrock
7:20 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Wow. Those people in Canada are getting hammered.
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627. earthlydragonfly
7:18 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I have to say that the storm SW of the lesser antillies is looking pretty organized right now. Dont know if the low has reached the surface or not but it does look pretty strong at this point. Any takers on if this will become an INVEST in the next 24 to 48???
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626. InTheCone
11:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The wide view has been behind for a couple of days - at least for me.
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624. BahaHurican
7:16 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Hey, everybody,

I notice it's "quiet" in the tropics . .. lol
.... though a look at any map would certainly refute that. Anyway, I though u might find this current analysis map rather interesting . . .


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623. TampaSpin
11:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Does the NHC atlantic wide view not loading for everyone else or is it just my computer..
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622. InTheCone
11:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Phillies -

I voted for Fl., but the way things are going it could be all of the choices - lol!!!!
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621. philliesrock
7:17 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
And just so you know, I voted Georgia and Carolinas.
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620. philliesrock
7:17 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
This is for the rest of the season Michael.
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619. ljk
11:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
where's 94l center gonna be
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618. TampaSpin
11:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
More than 2td at once yep
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616. philliesrock
7:15 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Sorry, I gave the wrong link. Try again.
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615. blueranch
11:09 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
storm j a little better execution and you would have had it

really think we will have 4 invests at once? or more than 2 tds at once?
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614. stormyjm
11:09 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Golly, the number of waves out there, all over the ding-dang place makes this look like the all you can eat chinese hurricane buffet... I'll have the kung pao Jerry and the General Karen's chicken...
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613. NorthxCakalaky
11:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: philliesrock at 11:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Poll about hurricane season for anyone who hasn't voted yet:


Went to the link, how do ya vote?
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612. viman
11:11 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
looks pretty good -- think later tonite -- invest
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611. decimus785
11:10 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Waiting for CV storm to be declared an invest
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610. C2News
7:08 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Look who it is lol


Me on FCN
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609. philliesrock
7:08 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Poll about hurricane season for anyone who hasn't voted yet:

Link
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608. viman
11:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
just got here, whats going on south of the CV islands? anybody?
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607. MissBennet
11:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Well, I'm off. I'll check back in tomorrow when we know more about 94L.

BB Keeper and Drak.
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606. MissBennet
11:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Oh good, I like it when things go poof... especially when they're tropical disturbances coming right for me.
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605. Drakoen
11:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: MissBennet at 10:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

RockMeLikeAHurricane <-- ignored... so much more peaceful now =)


yea. Hes one of the only two people i have on my ignore list. So much better now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
604. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:00 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
even all his posts are gone poof
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603. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
24 hr ban got to love it
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602. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
maybe removed allready miss b
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601. MissBennet
5:55 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
RockMeLikeAHurricane <-- ignored... so much more peaceful now =)
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600. groundman
10:55 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
why in the you no what is 96L why is it not up yet it sould be here by now i want 96L up be for i hit my feet on the window

It's OK Taz, we will have it soon, maybe later tonight?
599. Tazmanian
3:53 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
cv wave sould be 96L
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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