TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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695. hurricane23
7:56 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
philliesrock....

Could become tropical briefly but no worries only for the fish.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13699
693. bajelayman2
11:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
As my tag says, I am no expert, but based on experience, I will stick my neck out.

It was blistering hot in Barbados today, I usually like the heat, but it was hot even to me. We have breezes which ease the heat, but nevertheless I noticed a distinct heat greater than the past few days.

The sky is presently crisp clear this night, perfect for stargazing if you can get to an unlit area (I need to get a telescope soon).

With the Cape Verde looking interesting, I will stick my neck out and regretfully say that I think a big one is on its way, due to what we are experiencing now and what I have seen in the past, together with what I see on the screen.

Let's hope it does not happen.
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692. philliesrock
7:54 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
This site wants 95L to intensify into an intense extratropical storm.

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691. hurricane23
7:52 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Basically lots of convection across the tropical atlantic but no real significant worries at this time with the peak of the season here.

Great news if you ask me....Lets hope it continues.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13699
690. earthlydragonfly
7:51 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
You got it Baha
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689. groundman
11:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: BahaHurican at 11:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
Hey, everybody,

I notice it's "quiet" in the tropics . .. lol
.... though a look at any map would certainly refute that. Anyway, I though u might find this current analysis map rather interesting . . .


BahaHurican what's the link to that map?? I'm too lazy to look for myself. IF you get time that is.
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688. hurricane23
7:51 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:48 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

3 favorties which ive had the honor to meet on several occasions is jack beven,mr avila which in my opinion has just about the most experience at the nhc with his days forcasting in cuba.

And last a HERO which ive has the pleasure of chatting a few times with is stacy stewart which is currently in iraq.I truly miss stacy and which him the best of luck out in the region and look forward to having him back at the NHC next season.Adrian

Here's Jacks website link for those interested.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13699
687. hurricane23
7:48 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
94L will likely be removed from NRL as its running out of realestate.May try to get going once in the gulf.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13699
686. BahaHurican
7:46 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: earthlydragonfly at 7:41 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Here is a link of my experienced tips on how to photograph lightning


Thanks, EDF.
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685. icepilot
6:45 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Looks like I missed the fireworks with the " Rock.." Darn, I sooo look for his insight into situations - So I will know what not to think LOL
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684. Weather456
7:48 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
683. hurricane23
7:43 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
3 favorties which ive had the honor to meet on several occasions is jack beven,mr avila which in my opinion has just about the most experience at the nhc with his days forcasting in cuba.

And last a HERO which ive has the pleasure of chatting a few times with is stacy stewart which is currently in iraq.I truly miss stacy and which him the best of luck out in the region and look forward to having him back at the NHC next season.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13699
682. sporteguy03
11:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
lol extreme I guess Avila's hand got tired halfway through lol


Maybe he wrote alot for eye?
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679. extreme236
11:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Oh and, if there the tropics werent active enough, we could have TD15W in the wpac soon enough, dvorak has increased to 2.0 for that one
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
678. Drakoen
11:43 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

2 areas iam watching are the areas near the capeverde region and the wave approaching the islands.Meaning affects on the united states.

Almost forgot 94L lol....


yea what is that 94L
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30142
677. extreme236
11:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Oh and Knabb is another forecaster...and I noticed Avila and blake work on TWO's and advisories together quite frequently, as I saw with Felix
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
676. philliesrock
7:41 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I think we will see 96L very soon from the CV wave. And TD or STD #11 from the subtropical, but becoming tropical, low. And TD #12 from 94L.
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675. hurricane23
7:41 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
2 areas iam watching are the areas near the capeverde region and the wave approaching the islands.Meaning affects on the united states.

Almost forgot 94L lol....
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13699
674. extreme236
11:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
So far the forecasters I have seen are:

-Avila (seems to be active in both atlantic and epac)
-Blake
-Pasch
-Mainelli (seems to be more active in the epac)
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
673. Drakoen
11:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

lol extreme I guess Avila's hand got tired halfway through lol


ROFL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30142
672. earthlydragonfly
7:39 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Here is a link of my experienced tips on how to photograph lightning

Link
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671. hurricane23
7:38 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Avila.....Long TWO indeed but all potential is ther as were now in prime time for tropical cyclone developement.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13699
670. extreme236
11:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Yes, I noticed Avila seems a bit more conservative, but he does his job well
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
669. philliesrock
7:38 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Avila is usually the one that doesn't want blobs to develop...he's conservative. But not in an active period like this. Blake is a bit less conservative but he doesn't want all random blobs to develop.
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668. NorthxCakalaky
11:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: earthlydragonfly at 11:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

C2News you are fantastic. your camera presents is awesome and you control the scene very very well. Awesome work and I think you will have what ever job in the field you desire!!!!!!


lol, nice vid.
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667. Weather456
7:38 PM AST on September 22, 2007
good evening h23
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
666. extreme236
11:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
oh, and they have recon scheduled for 94L tomorrow at 2pm EDT
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
663. Weather456
7:38 PM AST on September 22, 2007
This may actually be our next TD or STD, convection is slowly increasing and wrapping around a well-define circulation.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
662. extreme236
11:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

lol extreme I guess Avila's hand got tired halfway through lol


lol I guess so...he seems to write up a lot of the TWO's
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
661. earthlydragonfly
7:37 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Baha I have a tutorial on the subject. Let me get the link for you..
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659. extreme236
11:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: TampaSpin at 11:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 11:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: TampaSpin at 11:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Extreme where you live at...

Ohio lol

This is a great Hobby....would rather do this in my past time than watch some of the crape on TV.


yes, it is more fun. My first full season I watched was the 2004 hurricane season, but earlier this year I went to google and found this site and well, I have learned so many things I had no clue about. It would take me all night to write up a list of what I have learned
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
657. hurricane23
19:36 EDT le 22 septembre 2007
Good evening folks!
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13699
656. extreme236
11:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
LOL, I just realized, that it took 2 people to right the TWO...it says forecaster Avila/Blake lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
655. earthlydragonfly
7:32 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
C2News are you still here???? Who is that video of ?????
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654. TampaSpin
11:33 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 11:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: TampaSpin at 11:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Extreme where you live at...

Ohio lol

This is a great Hobby....would rather do this in my past time than watch some of the crape on TV.
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653. decimus785
11:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
TampaSpin,mi atlantic wide view doesnt load either
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649. extreme236
11:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Also, I looked at the 12.5km pass...shows a lot of rain contaminated barbs, although I saw some 30-35kt barbs and even an isolated 45kt barb
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.