TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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749. stormyjm
12:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
extreme, do you see any of these invests as becoming true-blue hurricanes affecting the U.S.?
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748. extreme236
12:27 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: eye at 12:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

extreme, there might be a row boat out there....


lol, I guess there are some stupid people in this world that would get on a row boat and sail out into the atlantic
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
747. eye
12:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
extreme, there might be a row boat out there....
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746. extreme236
12:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
but im surprised we dont have 96L yet...maybe they just want the cv wave to develop first lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
745. extreme236
12:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: eye at 12:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

on second thought, other than Dean, Felix and Humberto, it already looks better than any of the other tropical storms or subs this season....lol


lol, I almost have to agree to a point...but hey, gotta like those NATL lows...fun to watch and dont kill people :-)
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
744. TampaSpin
8:21 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I think i got it now.....ya
Link
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743. extreme236
12:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED 825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES
NEAR 36N44W IS INCREASING ITS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
THUS LOOKING MORE TROPICAL
. THE LOW IS PRESENTLY DRIFTING NE.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY W AND N OF THE CENTER FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN
46W-49W...AND FROM 37N-39N BETWEEN 44W-46W.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
742. tornadofan
12:22 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
With that TWO that Taz posted, why isn't there a 96L and 97L yet? What are we waiting for?
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741. eye
12:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
on second thought, other than Dean, Felix and Humberto, it already looks better than any of the other tropical storms or subs this season....lol
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740. Weather456
8:22 PM AST on September 22, 2007
good to go

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
739. extreme236
12:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
they should name 95L but they will probably number it first
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738. eye
12:22 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
lol, give it a name, pad the numbers....lol
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737. tornadofan
12:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I certainly wouldn't mind if 95L became a hurricane. It's about the equivalent of watching an EPAC storm heading northwest into cooler waters.
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736. Weather456
8:21 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
735. extreme236
12:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
oh, and the twd's special feature is the NATL low...Im thinking it may become a cyclone at 11pm tonight, as the nhc says its becoming more tropical
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
734. eye
12:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
23, looks fishy to me
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733. TampaSpin
8:19 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: V26R at 8:19 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Tampa what was that link?
Its NG

Sorry just figured out how to put a link up ..lol
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732. Tazmanian
5:17 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
for the ones have not seen it yet

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AND YET ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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731. hurricane23
8:19 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Hey V26R!
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
730. V26R
12:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Tampa what was that link?
Its NG
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729. TampaSpin
8:17 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Link
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728. hurricane23
8:16 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
NHC at 805pm....

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6N22W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
23W-27W.


This will be up on NRL soon if night later tonight into tommorow.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
727. eye
12:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
looks like the Carribean blob is being stretched out and also poofing out....
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726. stormpetrol
12:15 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Just to make clear I have nothing against the US , they feed the world practically and we are greatly supported by them, it just sames TWC and others are only worried when the lower 48 is threatened. God bless the United States.I just wanted to make that clear.
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725. V26R
12:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I guess unless the lower 48 is affected , who gives a HECK


Those are the same people who trun away from this site when the Season ends here in the
Atlantic and never see us in here inthe middle
of the winter discussing stuff that is happening
across the Pacific and inthe Indian Oceans
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724. hurricane23
8:15 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:12 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:07 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Adrian i have no clue where you get that from

just because we talk about them means we want them to come?

Its just the vibe i get from some of you guys sometimes...My statement was not towards you.

Just wondering why the stuff that iam down playing things out there!I like to look at the facts and as of right now theres is nothing out across the tropical atlantic to be really concerned about just areas to moniter as you should do during the peak of the season.I also enjoy tracking tropical cyclone in all basins.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
723. tornadofan
12:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Some of you guys on here sound like you want a hurricane....


I'd say that's about 95% of the people here.
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720. Weather456
8:12 PM AST on September 22, 2007
970 mb extra topical low over East Canada

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
719. bajelayman2
12:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yes, I saw pictures of what Ivan did, literally levelled townhouses to raw foundation.

Thank God it missed us at the last minute in Barbados, literally skipped around us, as a CAT 3.
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718. hurricane23
8:07 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:07 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Adrian i have no clue where you get that from

just because we talk about them means we want them to come?

Its just the vibe i get from some of you guys sometimes...My statement was not towards you.

Just wondering why the stuff that iam down playing things out there!I like to look at the facts and as of right now theres is nothing out across the tropical atlantic to be really concerned about just areas to moniter as you should do during the peak of the season.I also enjoy tracking tropical cyclone in all basins.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
717. groundman
12:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: BahaHurican at 12:06 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Groundman, go to OPC's website, where they have stuff for what amounts to the non-tropical North Atlantic. I like to look at it in conjuction with NHC because it gives a better idea of what is influencing some of the tropical steering.

THANKS!!
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716. stormpetrol
12:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I guess unless the lower 48 is affected , who gives a HECK. I watched storm after storm form in our area (yes) THe Cayman Islands, and we get pounded like hell, then after it enters the Gulf and is given a name , it means a hell of lot. We got pounded with Ivan with 160 mph winds for about 30 hours and no one seem to give a hoot, I still say Ivan was the most powerful devastating hurricane to ever cruise the Atlantic and well as elsewhere as far as I'm concerned , its power and destruction was very underestimated in my opinion, though I will admit our local Government here wanted to keep it a secret in my opinion.
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715. catalina36
7:07 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
dragon fly a recent lightning storm just cost me $2500 after my deductible. be careful what you ask for.
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714. hurricane91
8:08 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Severe Weather Alert

Tornado Warning


TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 803 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 757 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A TORNADO NEAR INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 29...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 29... AVE MARIA...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO AT 800 PM EDT NEAR I-75 AND MILE MARKER 80 MOVING WEST TO NORTHWEST. THIS TORNADO WILL AFFECT TRAVELER ALONG I- 75.

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF A TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO SEE. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT 305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.



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712. BahaHurican
8:03 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Groundman, go to OPC's website, where they have stuff for what amounts to the non-tropical North Atlantic. I like to look at it in conjuction with NHC because it gives a better idea of what is influencing some of the tropical steering.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22138
711. earthlydragonfly
8:04 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I have no want or wish for a hurricane.... I want lightning storms. LOL my only sick and twisted desire
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710. TampaSpin
8:02 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Good little site for interesting things...sorry not figured out how to put a link up yet.....lol
http://seacoos.org/Data%20Access%20and%20Mapping/InteractiveMap/
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709. extreme236
12:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well, nothing else in the tropics on the horizon unless that wave coming off africa holds up
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
708. hurricane23
8:02 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:01 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 7:56 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:54 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

Basically lots of convection across the tropical atlantic but no real significant worries at this time with the peak of the season here.

Great news if you ask me....Lets hope it continues.

LOL... As usual, H23 doesn't want anything to develop, whether it is a threat or not...

STL let me ask you a simple question have you ever been through 160mph winds for 4-5 hours?Yes i feel great to be able to say that there is nothing threaten the U.S. with the peak here as things could very well be much different as we saw in 2004 and 2005.Lets hope we can stay quiet for the rest of the season.

In all honesty the odds of that hapening are slow but lets hope everything stays out to sea.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
707. earthlydragonfly
8:01 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I keep here or reading people referring to Adrain---- Is that an acronymm or is it a model or what????
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706. hurricane23
8:01 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Some of you guys on here sound like you want a hurricane....
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
705. TampaSpin
8:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Just checked surfance winds in the W Carrib. diffnetly got winds coming in 4 directions..
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704. weatherguy03
8:01 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Ok. Well make sure you alert them!
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701. hurricane23
7:57 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 7:56 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:54 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

Basically lots of convection across the tropical atlantic but no real significant worries at this time with the peak of the season here.

Great news if you ask me....Lets hope it continues.

LOL... As usual, H23 doesn't want anything to develop, whether it is a threat or not...

STL let me ask you a simple question have you ever been through 160mph winds for 4-5 hours?Yes i feel great to be able to say that there is nothing threaten the U.S. with the peak here as things could very well be much different as we saw in 2004 and 2005.Lets hope we can stay quiet for the rest of the season.

In all honesty the odds of that hapening are slow but lets hope everything stays out to sea.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13792
700. weatherguy03
7:59 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Yeah JP you might want to cancel that cruise to Iceland!..LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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