TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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799. groundman
12:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 12:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Good evening all!

Good evening Storm, things are interesting?
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798. Tropicnerd13
12:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
guys, i know it could become a td within the next 24 - 48 hrs, i wanted to say that too, but i didn't want controversy over that because some people call you wishcasters if you say too early than they think. any of those could become one within the next 24 - 48 hrs. why they aren't invests yet i dont know.
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797. extreme236
12:45 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: icepilot at 12:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

One more time - for extreme


I understand, im just saying you dont get all the horrible deaths and destruction like you do over land, but yes people can die on ships in the ocean
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
796. Drakoen
12:45 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: groundman at 12:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drak, so we don't have closed circulation on 94L? but we do on the one that will be 96L, cv wave, as soon as taz phones home? LOL JK


94L has an area of low pressure not a closed low level circulation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
795. icepilot
7:43 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Zoo, that "invest" is crossing the main great circle shipping route for ships going to Europe
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794. eye
12:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Adrian, you started tracking storms when you were 1?!?!?!?!?!

WOW!

kidding!
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
793. groundman
12:42 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drak, so we don't have closed circulation on 94L? but we do on the one that will be 96L, cv wave, as soon as taz phones home? LOL JK
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792. HurricaneGeek
8:43 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
When you guys are talking CV wave you mean the one over water already, correct?
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791. hurricane23
8:38 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
456 please answer the question??Why make this statement if you dont even know me?Ive been tracking tropical cyclones for years almost 15 years now and have experienced quite a few tropical in my days.

My main point is tropical cyclones destroy and ruin lives and again i honestly feel great to be able to say things are quiet but with potential on this date.The united states has endured enough in the past couple of seasons.Adrian
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790. icepilot
7:40 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Each "cell" is 1 deg Lat by 1 Deg Lon - there are a lot of "cells" between the US and Europe
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789. tornadofan
12:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
As a mostly lurker - I've seen H23 been right more than wrong. True, it does seem if H23 errs, he errs on the side of downplaying tropical potential. That tells me he is ready for the NHC. :)

Keep on posting your thoughts H23. I enjoy them.
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788. extreme236
12:41 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
TN13, the CV wave could become a TD in 24-48hrs
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
787. sullivanweather
12:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: icepilot at 12:31 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Ext236 - the NATL Lows do kill, maim, cripple, and otherwise mess up peoples lives. Riding a ship in a hurricane is only fun until you get hurt or killed. Ships sink every year due to weather related events.

Been Strange Times

2005
Cyclone Catarina, the first known hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean
2007
Hurricane Flossie almost getting Hawaii
Two land falls by Category 5 hurricanes in US mainland
Fastest development of a cat 5
L95 going to Greenland


2007
Hurricane Flossie almost getting Hawaii - what's so unusual about this?

Two land falls by Category 5 hurricanes in US mainland - Dean and Felix didn't strike US

Fastest development of a cat 5 - no argument here

L95 going to Greenland - Why is this surprising??
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786. Tropicnerd13
12:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok guys, could someone tell me if they have ANY thoughts on this???
soon to be or already invests:
94l: western carribean wave, goes north, develops into a tropical depression/storm (30% chance imo)
95l: north east atlantic low pressure system, becomes a ts, if it isn't already (70% chance imo)
soon to be 96l: central atlantic wave within itcz, may become td or ts within 3-4 days (50% chance imo)
soon to be 97l: african wave, could become a td or ts within the next 3-4 days, may follow dean path (40% chance imo b/c so far away)
very little cance for anything else to become an invest unless 93l splits in half (20% chance imo)

this is all on observation from the noaa maps. my computer is acting up so i dont know if they are accurate. please tell me if you guys think this makes sense any at all.

better now???
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785. Drakoen
12:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: groundman at 12:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 12:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Adrian Tonights QuickSat revealed a closed surface circulation.

94L or 95L?
AND why is 94L going to speed up, it's @ 10 mph right now?


On the CV wave that Adrian keep saying has a mid level cirulation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
784. icepilot
7:40 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
One more time - for extreme

Amver Density Plot Display
August 2007
Legend
Each colored dot displayed on the chart approximates a one-degree cell (60 minutes of latitude by 60 minutes of longitude) and is referred to as a "cell" in the legend below.
Monthly density plot totals:
Red Cells: The monthly plot totaled over 50 vessels
Orange Cells: The monthly plot totaled between 15 and 49 vessels
Green Cells: The monthly plot totaled between 5 and 14 vessels
Blue Cells: The monthly plot totaled 4 or fewer vessels
Empty Cells: No vessels


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/i/icepilot/1.gifhttp://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/i/icepilot/1.gif
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782. eye
12:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
The Carribean Blob is going to be like a Rocket, 20mph, but seems to slow down right before or after landfall....and it is not a sure thing it will affect the CONUS...some models are saying Mexico(northern)
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
781. Drakoen
12:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
780. groundman
12:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Adrian Tonights QuickSat revealed a closed surface circulation.

94L or 95L?
AND why is 94L going to speed up, it's @ 10 mph right now?
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779. extreme236
12:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: TampaSpin at 12:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Extreme--why does the w carrib. thing suppose to move out and inland so fast...is the stirring currents that strong....i don't see it...


Im not quite sure, but that fast movement may not allow it much time to form...its got tomorrow and part of monday
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
778. Tropicnerd13
12:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
yes yes i know i know sorry i was too LaZy to look it up so i just guessed. and i guessed wrong. 93l on my list is actually current 94l and each number just add one to it ( 93l = 94l, 94l = 95l, 95l = 96l, etc) yeah yeah make fun of me...
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777. extreme236
12:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Ok lets remember all the numbers folks...I think a few people are a bit confused and just to clarify:

93l became TD10
94l is the NW caribbean low
95L is the NATL low
Soon-to-be 96l is the CV wave
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
775. TampaSpin
8:36 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Extreme--why does the w carrib. thing suppose to move out and inland so fast...is the stirring currents that strong....i don't see it...
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774. Hhunter
12:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
93l will regettably become a hUrricane ..
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773. eye
12:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sorry I dont hype all the systems up to monsters.
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772. Hhunter
12:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
93l will regettably become a hUrricane ..
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771. groundman
12:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Tropicnerd13 I think 93L is td10 and making rain in MS??
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770. extreme236
12:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
TN13, we already have 95L, and the CV wave could become a TD as early as tomrrow
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
769. Weather456
8:34 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Tropicnerd13,

93L became TD10
94L -West Carib
95L - N ATL Low
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768. Tropicnerd13
12:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
ooops sorry guys numbering was incorrect. :(
dont make fun of me...
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767. zoomiami
12:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
icepilot: isn't that area in the Natl a fairly well used shipping area?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
764. hurricane23
8:35 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:35 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: Weather456 at 8:31 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Those who down play systems all the time (hurricane23 and eye) why waste your time on the blog...you can be sipping margaritas and let the rest of us worry.

456 is this statement towards me?The reason i come on the blog is because i enjoy tracking tropical cyclones worldwide and it really is passion ive had for many years since hurricane andrew destroyed dade county in 92.
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763. seafarer459
12:27 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Rowboat..LOL

How about frieghters..tankers..ro ros container ships fishing boats(ala Andrea gale) oil rigs yachts and maybe even a raft with Huck Fin, Tom Sawyer and Becky Thatcher

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762. extreme236
12:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sufficient winds for a STS/TS

image
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
761. hurricane23
8:32 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 8:31 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

Those who down play systems all the time (hurricane23 and eye) why waste your time on the blog...you can be sipping margaritas and let the rest of us worry.

456 is this statement towards me?The reason i come on the blog is because i enjoy tracking tropical cyclones worldwide and it really is passion ive had for many years since hurricane andrew destroyed dade county in 92.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
760. Tropicnerd13
12:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok guys, could someone tell me if they have ANY thoughts on this???
soon to be or already invests:
93l: western carribean wave, goes north, develops into a tropical depression/storm (30% chance imo)
94l: north east atlantic low pressure system, becomes a ts, if it isn't already (70% chance imo)
soon to be 95l: central atlantic wave within itcz, may become td or ts within 3-4 days (50% chance imo)
soon to be 96l: african wave, could become a td or ts within the next 3-4 days, may follow dean path (40% chance imo b/c so far away)
very little cance for anything else to become an invest unless 93l splits in half (20% chance imo)

this is all on observation from the noaa maps. my computer is acting up so i dont know if they are accurate. please tell me if you guys think this makes sense any at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
759. icepilot
7:31 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Ext236 - the NATL Lows do kill, maim, cripple, and otherwise mess up peoples lives. Riding a ship in a hurricane is only fun until you get hurt or killed. Ships sink every year due to weather related events.

Been Strange Times

2005
Cyclone Catarina, the first known hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean
2007
Hurricane Flossie almost getting Hawaii
Two land falls by Category 5 hurricanes in US mainland
Fastest development of a cat 5
L95 going to Greenland

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
758. Weather456
8:29 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Those who down play systems all the time (hurricane23 and eye) why waste your time on the blog...you can be sipping margaritas and let the rest of us worry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
757. extreme236
12:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormyjm at 12:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

extreme, do you see any of these invests as becoming true-blue hurricanes affecting the U.S.?


Not at this time, but its very early out for some of them
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
756. Tazmanian
5:28 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED 825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES
NEAR 36N44W IS INCREASING ITS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
THUS LOOKING MORE TROPICAL. THE LOW IS PRESENTLY DRIFTING NE.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY W AND N OF THE CENTER FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN
46W-49W...AND FROM 37N-39N BETWEEN 44W-46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6N22W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
23W-27W.
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755. Drakoen
12:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Adrian Tonights QuickSat revealed a closed surface circulation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
753. extreme236
12:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Here's a close-up view at the 1010mb low of the african coast.Right its latitude is a plus as it may come westward for a while.This should be up on NRL as its shown persistancy with the thunderstorm activity and as also has a somewhat well defind mid-level circulation.


Its also got a LLC, as seen in QS pass this evening
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
752. Drakoen
12:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6N22W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
23W-27W.

And yet no invest LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
751. TexasRiverRat
12:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
anyone have a link to the Cancun Radar Animation?
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750. hurricane23
8:28 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Here's a close-up view at the 1010mb low of the african coast.Right its latitude is a plus as it may come westward for a while.This should be up on NRL as its shown persistancy with the thunderstorm activity and as also has a somewhat well defind mid-level circulation.

ddd
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749. stormyjm
12:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
extreme, do you see any of these invests as becoming true-blue hurricanes affecting the U.S.?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.