TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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849. groundman
1:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: weatherg8r at 1:04 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
I have mostly been a lurker on here for the last few weeks, just wanted to thank everyone for all the info! My husband says that I am addicted to this blog!

Welcome, groundman is really groundwoman, LOL. And you are about the 5th woman to say that this week. I get up in the night and blog. It's OK with him though, I watch the weather for about 20 people which is a scary thought that they might think I know something!! LOL
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848. seflagamma
9:07 PM AST on September 22, 2007
and they wonder why no one has any crediability.
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847. sullivanweather
12:59 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: icepilot at 12:58 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

SW - sorry but I think a hurricane endangering Hawaii is a rare event


Obviously it's not as rare of an event as you think.


From Wikipedia:


37 tropical cyclones have affected Hawaii since 1949
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846. seflagamma
9:06 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Read this from today' newspaper here in SE Fla.

This is crazy listen to this:
Our South Florida Sun-Sentinel Newspaper
Local section, back page weather forcast.
Now this forcast is always wrong because they print it up by 10pm the night before with information I have no idea who they get it from; one would thing a creditable met..but.

Today's Weather (Sat 9/22/07)
On the Map.
TS Jerry lands in New Orleans!!!!!


Oh my goodness. if that doesn't tell you what was predicted and what happened, nothing does.
And they did place an article written later just before print that TD10 actually made landfall in Ft Walton Beach , FL Fri Evening.
this was burried....

What can you say.
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845. Patrap
8:06 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: OUSHAWN at 8:05 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.
This doesn't make any sense...the NHC says that conditions ARE favorable for development of 94L but the NWS here in the Houston area is saying that conditions are NOT favorable. HUH????

Shawn



Just like here..people see things differntly.It is Human Nature.
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844. icepilot
8:05 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Thanks Zoo
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843. extreme236
1:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Im thinking Jerry at 11pm, maybe STD11, but im leaning toward an STS right now
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842. OUSHAWN
1:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
This doesn't make any sense...the NHC says that conditions ARE favorable for development of 94L but the NWS here in the Houston area is saying that conditions are NOT favorable. HUH????

Shawn
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841. Patrap
8:04 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
Click to Enlarge


Link
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840. weathersp
9:04 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Yeah I think 95L will be a Subtropical Depression at 11pm..
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839. zoomiami
1:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
according to hawaii meterology cite - only five hurricanes have hit Hawaii since 1950 - that does make it fairly unlikely.
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838. Thundercloud01221991
1:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think that it has a chance to become tropical looking at it
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837. stoormfury
1:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
the CALT wave approaching the winward islands
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836. weatherg8r
8:02 PM EST on September 22, 2007
I have mostly been a lurker on here for the last few weeks, just wanted to thank everyone for all the info! My husband says that I am addicted to this blog!
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835. Skyepony (Mod)
1:01 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
95L~ Atleast a STD by 11

T2.5= 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb
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834. Drakoen
1:01 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I don't think 95L will be Jerry at 11:00pm.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
832. youradjuster
1:00 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 1:00 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

DO you y'all think 95 will be a: nothing, td, or ts at 11pm?



Stay online and find out you only have two hours to go.
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830. CJ5
12:59 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
8/22 looks to be the best developed out of any of the others talked about and should be an invest soon.

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829. HurricaneGeek
8:59 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
DO you y'all think 95 will be a: nothing, td, or ts at 11pm?
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
828. stoormfury
12:56 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
i have been talking about this wave all day and the signs of organisation but no one paid heed to me. now it looks even better and on the verge of something bigger than a wave
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827. Skyepony (Mod)
12:42 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
22/2345 UTC 36.2N 46.4W ST2.5/2.5 95L
small but healthy
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826. HurricaneGeek
8:58 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
So, looks like 95 will beat them to Jerry.
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825. zoomiami
12:50 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Storm: I know that its really early - but do you have a general idea of what direction the african waves are headed?
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824. icepilot
7:45 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
SW - sorry but I think a hurricane endangering Hawaii is a rare event - I lived there 8 years in 60s and 70 and don't recall any threats and that's changed in the last 10 years or so.

sorry - you are right, the didn't hit the US - I should have just left it at landfalls

As for greenland, I was commenting on the graphic Posted By: philliesrock at 6:55 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

This site wants 95L to intensify into an intense extratropical storm.

Northeasters hammering greenland happen all the time but IMHO this event looked a little special


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823. JLPR
12:57 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 12:55 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007.

Just saing IF everyone gets names (not saying they will, not saying they won't) just saying if.
We will have Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, and "M" wich i believe is Melissa.


that sure would be an active week
:P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
822. Weather456
8:55 PM AST on September 22, 2007
the NHC based these open ocean storms on Dvorak, surface obs, quikscat most of the time so this cud be Jerry anytime soon.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
821. HurricaneGeek
8:56 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
alright nerd..LOL i am calliing him a nerd and I am a geek...
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819. HurricaneGeek
8:53 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Just saing IF everyone gets names (not saying they will, not saying they won't) just saying if.
We will have Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, and "M" wich i believe is Melissa.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
818. JLPR
12:54 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
Posted By: eye at 12:53 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007.

everybody is forgetting the wave approaching the islands


yeah that one looks way better than this morning
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
817. Weather456
8:51 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Wrapping up nicely

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
816. eye
12:52 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
everybody is forgetting the wave approaching the islands.....
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815. Tropicnerd13
12:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
sorry stormw. someone sneased up above ^^^ and poof more invests.
814. HurricaneGeek
8:51 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
22/2345 UTC 36.2N 46.4W ST2.5/2.5 95L

Hola Jerry?
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
813. Drakoen
12:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
the area in the central atlantic is look better organized.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
811. groundman
12:50 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:50 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
groundman can you delete you post you made the blog go bold...

I fixed it, forgot the slash.
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810. extreme236
12:50 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well folks, Jerry is on the way

ST2.5/2.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
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809. Weather456
8:47 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:43 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
456 please answer the question??Why make this statement if you dont even know me?Ive been tracking tropical cyclones for years almost 15 years now and have experienced quite a few tropical in my days.

My main point is tropical cyclones destroy and ruin lives and again i honestly feel great to be able to say things are quiet but with potential on this date.The united states has endured enough in the past couple of seasons.Adrian


I dont care if u started tracking storms before the dinosaurs. I didnt meant anything like that.

All i said is that u down lay systems. But yet u giving me all this info which i dont really care.
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808. eye
12:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
i think we all understand now
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807. HurricaneGeek
8:47 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I checked once this morning at 8am and then tonight at 845pm. This thing is looking better and better each time. I think a INVEST will come out of this tomarrow morning. And a TD by Thursday.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
803. groundman
12:47 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:46 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Posted By: groundman at 12:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drak, so we don't have closed circulation on 94L? but we do on the one that will be 96L, cv wave, as soon as taz phones home? LOL JK/

94L has an area of low pressure not a closed low level circulation.


That's what I thought, sorry but it didn't look swirly to me yet. I know I'm pitiful. Swirly is not the accepted weather term.
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800. Weather456
8:41 PM AST on September 22, 2007
456 is this statement towards me?The reason i come on the blog is because i enjoy tracking tropical cyclones worldwide and it really is passion ive had for many years since hurricane andrew destroyed dade county in 92.

And the other reason you come to this blog (just like eye) is to down play systems. and H23 i read ur post like almost everyday and almost all the time is some comment about a storm not developing without any evidence. Most recently is when u had a debate with someone whether 93L was under shear or not..and i didnt link ur source and it turned out u was wrong.

All i am saying is that just dont state a storm has no chance to develop or is not a threat with referencing to some sort of evidence.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
799. groundman
12:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 12:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Good evening all!

Good evening Storm, things are interesting?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.