TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2649. pottery2
6:57 PM AST on September 23, 2007
When I flew in/out of Barbados last Saturday, there were 2 HH aircraft parked there. Ingrid was approaching. But I have never seen 2 HH aircraft around here at one time, before that.
Maybe one of them is here in Trinidad now. I'll find out.
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2648. mississippiwx23
11:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think they are just heat convection thunderstorms over the yucatan. They are initiated because of the circulation of 94L, but they can not be considered a sign that the storm is strengthening. Only convection over water can indicate that.
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2647. OUSHAWN
10:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I have to admit...94L is now showing some life since it has finally come off the YUC...lol. I can't tell if those are storms caused by the heat of the day and land from the YUC that are traveling offshore or if it's actually storms trying to fire up around the center of circulation. Need a little more time to see I think. If it is the center firing off storms than maybe 94L is not dead quite yet...I could be...just could be...eating some crow here.

Shawn
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2646. extreme236
10:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: woodlandstx at 10:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

extreme-

check out the latest visible loop, doesn't seem that the shear is letting up. the clouds on the west side drifting south. also, the east side might get some help from the complex rotating around the H in yucatan chanel. could 94L become a depression tonight?


the earliest I would expect 94L to develop, if at all, would be when recon finishes up tomorrow assuming they go in
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2645. extreme236
10:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: eye at 10:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

gut tells me 94 will be canceled, again.


maybe, it all depends on how it looks tomorrow...it hasnt been offshore long (if it even is offshore, which it may not be)
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2644. woodlandstx
10:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
extreme-

check out the latest visible loop, doesn't seem that the shear is letting up. the clouds on the west side drifting south. also, the east side might get some help from the complex rotating around the H in yucatan chanel. could 94L become a depression tonight?
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2643. Tazmanian
3:57 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
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2642. TheCaneWhisperer
10:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
HERE is a UTC world time clock for those who are having trouble converting. It helps me alot.
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2641. PensacolaDoug
10:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Did the term "fish storm" originate here on Wunderground? It sounds funny hearing TWC and FOX mets using it.
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2640. pottery2
6:48 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Good Evening.
Sure looks like we are about to get a bucket-load of rain here at 11n 61w. Sure could use some too, its been a bone-dry 3 weeks with 33/34 c temps.
The Tropical Atlantic looks like it is supposed to look, this time of year. You guys can go ahead and say it " we TOLD you so........" LOL
I'm still reserving my judgement !
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2639. Tazmanian
3:56 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
thats good 236 looks like we may need them with 97L and 96L
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2637. eye
10:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
gut tells me 94 will be canceled, again.
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2636. PensacolaDoug
10:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
TWC tropical update just now didnt even mention 97L. Skipped right over it.
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2635. extreme236
10:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

dos the HH have more then 2 storms at a time or 3 storm at a time do they have more then one Recon can they send up more if they need to?


Dont worry Taz, they have enough planes to send out
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2634. Tazmanian
3:51 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
dos the HH have more then 2 storms at a time or 3 storm at a time do they have more then one Recon can they send up more if they need to?
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2633. extreme236
10:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Current recon plane for tomorrow is that they are scheduled to fly in 94L tomorrow at Noon EDT, and 97L at 2pm EDT tomorrow
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2630. Tazmanian
3:50 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
236 is the HH going to WINDWARD ISLANDS on monday cant tell on the time it said on it
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2629. SaymoBEEL
10:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
MobileBay,
I'm hunkered down . I think our lawns will be green for a while.
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2628. Weather456
6:50 PM AST on September 23, 2007
The area being processed now is where 96L is located

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2627. extreme236
10:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

236 did you see my post about the HH too the WINDWARD ISLANDS????


Yep, should be interesting :-)
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2626. Tazmanian
3:48 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
236 did you see my post about the HH too the WINDWARD ISLANDS????
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2625. extreme236
10:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

here you go it takes it up too 86kt in 120hrs


I wouldnt put too much faith in the ships model yet...wait till it develops (if it does)
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2624. beell
10:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page (Navy site).
Click on your storm of interest on the left-look at bottom center of page-find QSCAT in the table and look at "last pass", "next pass" and beyond if desired.
I "think" this is good info-
Link
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
2622. Tazmanian
3:46 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
here you go it takes it up too 86kt in 120hrs

lol
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2621. extreme236
10:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
yes, looks like 94L is finally flaring convection near the center area...shear ranges from 10-15kts or so over the center
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2618. Tazmanian
3:44 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
NOUS42 KNHC 231730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 23 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-121


4. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 13.0N 60.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 25/1200Z.

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2617. txalwaysprepared
10:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hmmmm, I can't pull up the computer models for 97. Has anyone posted it? Or can anyone post it?
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2616. easystreets
10:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Does anyone know the service or server name to load NWS radar, satellite data, etc. into ArcGIS without having to use something like Weatherbug?
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2615. woodlandstx
10:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L finally firing convection near the center as moves nnw near 90.5W 21.5N
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2614. mobilebayal
10:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Saymobeel, is it going to rain all night? No ribs here Taco, lucky you. We are having Arbys. No cookin for me...whooohooo.
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2613. Tazmanian
3:40 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
this is for 97L from the main page

Wind: 30 MPH Location: 10.9 56.4W Movement: W


this is for 96L


Wind: 30 MPH Location: 7.1 29.4W Movement: W


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2612. NearTEXcoast
10:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
thanks extreme, realize it's 'just' an invest so far, I'll check back early in the AM
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2610. BahaHurican
6:40 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Les,

It wasn't the question itself so much as that it only allowed for a no-no answer, as in "are you still beating your wife?"

Are you new here? I don't remember having seen ur handle before . . . If so, welcome to the hurlyburly that is the blog . . .
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2609. Patrap
5:40 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/quikscat

Link
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2608. Sfloridacat5
10:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hurricane Charley taught me watch the weather and make predictions outside the view point of the "professionals."
On that Friday morning the "professional" were telling us the storm would go by us 100+ miles off shore.
At 2pm in the afternoon the wind was blowing 110+ mph and the roof was blown off our business.
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2606. Weather456
6:36 PM AST on September 23, 2007
DMax with 96L overnight which should bring to/near TD status.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2605. extreme236
10:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
nothing new on either invests...dmax will be approaching on 97L soon though...I guess now we wait for QS passes
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2604. Patrap
5:38 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
QuikSCAT Storm Page

The storm centered imagery presented on this page are generated based on storm center files provided by NRL(Naval Research Laboratory at Monterey). These files are updated whenever new information about active storms become available, and the imagery is updated shortly after reciept of these files.

QuikSCAT is a polar orbiting satellite with an 1800 km wide measurement swath on the earth's surface. Generally, this results in twice per day coverage over a given geographic region. Wind retrievals are done on a 25km x 25km spatial scale. For additional QuikSCAT information please visit


Link
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2602. eye
10:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
nothing new Taz
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2601. SaymoBEEL
10:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Link

Long range radar from Mobile :(
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2600. extreme236
10:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: presslord at 10:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Does anyone have the 'free time' to give me an 'undeducated' explanation of 'ascending' v. 'descending' as used in this context...


well, basically its just the times they are done at for the most part...the ascending pass is in the morning, and the descending is in the evening
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2599. taco2me61
10:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SayMoBEEL,
Yes me too... Sometimes I will just lurk but I will give some good advice when asked LOL...Although I do chat with JP alot for good info if you know what I mean...

Taco :0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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