TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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899. Weather456
9:20 PM AST on September 22, 2007
95LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-362N-463W
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
898. icepilot
8:19 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
I like Wikipedia too.
But:
From the Pacific Hurricane Center

I count 10

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/Climo_files/image011.jpg
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896. extreme236
1:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 1:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I think it's subtropical depression because it has 35 mph winds, with 1007 mb pressure.


but that is not an official measurement, the navy isnt always on the NHC's same page
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
893. Bobbyweather
9:19 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I think it's subtropical depression because it has 35 mph winds, with 1007 mb pressure.
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892. extreme236
1:19 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
they might make it STD 11, if the TAFB dvorak showed 2.0
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
891. Drakoen
1:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 1:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

from Navy site.


I dont' see that...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30556
890. OUSHAWN
1:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well, the NWS statement was at 2:45 this afternoon and the NHC was off their TWO at 4:30 so I don't think conditions could have changed that much in less than 2 hrs...lol. The point I'm making is that a lot of the times the NHC will say to pay attention to statements by your local NWS but what if they are saying something totally different than what the NHC center is saying???

It's not a big deal to me because I keep up with things on a regular basis but for those who don't than they could be totally surprised by what could happen.

Shawn
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
889. extreme236
1:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
navy site still says 95L, although it shows 30kt winds
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
887. Patrap
8:16 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
LSU WAVCIS/Earth Scan Labs has added the "wunderground" to their Page.

Its on the Left, TROPICAL WEATHER, highlighted in red Link
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886. Bobbyweather
9:17 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
from Navy site.
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885. Drakoen
1:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 1:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Subtropical Depression 11 forms...


Where does it say that? My sources say otherwise.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30556
884. extreme236
1:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 1:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Subtropical Depression 11 forms...


Or STS Jerry
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
883. Thundercloud01221991
1:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 1:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Subtropical Depression 11 forms...


where do you see that
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882. ladyluck276
9:16 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
good thinking extreme! But 99L should have been dean though.
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881. extreme236
1:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok, we should all add names at the end of all of our sentences...I want the name "Pasch" lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
880. weathersp
9:16 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I say definitely TD 11 at 11pm an maybe TS Jerry.
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879. Bobbyweather
9:16 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Subtropical Depression 11 forms...
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878. Weather456
9:14 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: eye at 9:13 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
Ok, is the cool thing to do to end your sentence with your name?

Jimbo


lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
877. presslord
9:13 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
the NHC speaks with one voice...whichever forecaster is ...well...forecasting...the local NWS offices are staffed by different people with different perspectives...they aren't all singing from the exact same page....
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876. extreme236
1:15 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Stoopid1 at 1:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

So, is 95 on the verge of becoming an STD/STS yet? It looks good enough, definetely strong enough.


dvorak is 2.5, so probably an STS
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
875. Patrap
8:14 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
WAVCIS GOM 60 hour Sea Surface Temperature Model
Click on Boxed area, run as model


Link
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874. extreme236
1:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
So far this year, all the named storms that have been male names, have been even-numbered invests (which will likely not be the case when 95L becomes jerry)

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
873. ladyluck276
9:13 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
96L is in the far Atlantic and is well-organized but small and will develop! No, it will go poof, anyways happy Independence Day!


LOL...
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872. eye
1:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
93l is dead, gone, bye bye
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871. Stoopid1
1:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
So, is 95 on the verge of becoming an STD/STS yet? It looks good enough, definetely strong enough.
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870. Weather456
9:12 PM AST on September 22, 2007
The wave approaching the Antilles looks to be getting there. That increases the potential for at least 2 name storms next week.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
869. youradjuster
1:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Shawn,

What do youor expect to hear.

The NHC ousted the manager than the senate sent him back to his old job at NWS. You think they like each other. Its no wonder we are getting conflicting information.
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868. Hhunter
12:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
93l will regettably become a hUrricane ..
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867. weatherg8r
8:12 PM EST on September 22, 2007
Groundman

I work at a utility here in Florida and everyone has been asking ME about the storms since I am on this thing so much, and if anything comes near us we will be work a LOT so they are all interested. I know how you feel with everyone wanting your opinion!
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866. Drakoen
1:13 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Floater on 95L.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30556
865. eye
1:11 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Ok, is the cool thing to do to end your sentence with your name?

Jimbo
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864. JLPR
1:11 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:11 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007.

i think we will see Jerry by 11pm and 96L would be come Karen and then 94L would be come Lorenzo


umm wouldnt the one east of the islands become somthing maybe melissa?
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863. Patrap
8:10 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
To be sure..a Local NWS forcaster may feel different than a Whole Panel of NHC forecasters,or the Discussion author..the system isnt initalized and its no threat yet. You can pull up ALL the NWS offices from the Gulf from all over. Youll see many different takes on that. Its all relative to the observer. DOom and Gloom isnt on the Horizion. Just a diffuse system now that may become something . May not.
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862. extreme236
1:11 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
total subs so far this year:

Andrea (the only subtropical system to NOT become tropical)

Gabby (started as subtropical, later became tropical)

TD10 (started subtropical, then became tropical)
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
861. Drakoen
1:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30556
860. JLPR
1:10 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
lol yes we are having a lot of Subtropical systems this year
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859. extreme236
1:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
95L will likely be subtropical at first, although I think it may become tropical at some point
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
858. ladyluck276
9:10 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
is the African wave been delared 96L yet? If so that would mean that all 96L's have been catl CV waves
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857. Tazmanian
6:08 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
i think we will see Jerry by 11pm and 96L would be come Karen and then 94L would be come Lorenzo

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
856. ladyluck276
9:10 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
i'm sick of the word subtropical...really sick of it...hope they just declare it tropical.
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855. OUSHAWN
1:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
PATRAP...

I can understand us on here disagreeing about what we think or see...however when you have the NHC and the NWS who are the experts and who we all trust in disagreeing than that's another story...

Shawn
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
854. extreme236
1:08 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok, the GFDL and HWRF seem to have been run on 95L
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
853. icepilot
8:06 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: OUSHAWN at 8:05 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

This doesn't make any sense...the NHC says that conditions ARE favorable for development of 94L but the NWS here in the Houston area is saying that conditions are NOT favorable. HUH????

Shawn


Got to look at the source and the time of the statements - NHC is usually more currnt on Tropical conditions
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852. youradjuster
1:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: OUSHAWN at 1:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

This doesn't make any sense...the NHC says that conditions ARE favorable for development of 94L but the NWS here in the Houston area is saying that conditions are NOT favorable. HUH????

Shawn


Isn't the NWS run by the EX NHC manager If so that would make sense
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851. seflagamma
9:08 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 9:06 PM AST on September 22, 2007.

Im thinking Jerry at 11pm, maybe STD11, but im leaning toward an STS right now



wait a minute. the S Fla Sun Sentinel has already shown that TS Jerry hit NO this morning. LOL
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850. ladyluck276
9:05 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
i'm sick of the word subtropical...really sick of it...hope they just declare it tropical.
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849. groundman
1:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: weatherg8r at 1:04 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
I have mostly been a lurker on here for the last few weeks, just wanted to thank everyone for all the info! My husband says that I am addicted to this blog!

Welcome, groundman is really groundwoman, LOL. And you are about the 5th woman to say that this week. I get up in the night and blog. It's OK with him though, I watch the weather for about 20 people which is a scary thought that they might think I know something!! LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.