TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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949. flzepher
1:47 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
yea JP, they finally got their act together, new digs, some real good players and coaches.
I know I have to go back a look, but is the Wind patterns going to change in the next day or so infront of 94L. Currently it coming out of the SW blowing everything into FL. Is a ULL going to pull this thing NW or something
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948. extreme236
1:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: MrSea at 1:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

95L an invest? gimme a break!!! You might as well make an October New England NorEaster an invest!!Did any of you guys see the water temperature under 95l? And if that is not enough, 95L is in the middle of no where! It is no threat to anyone!! (Except for sailors, I do not want to disrespect sailors they have a very difficult and dangerous job and I have a lot of respect for them) but come on 95L should be that convection south of the CV islands


Its not different than any epac storm, the point is that they qualify for a tropical cyclone so there named...no different than any storm that goes out to sea in the epac, and water temps under 95L are warm enough
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
947. zoomiami
1:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
pvbeachbum: I think that site proves why it is important to have these storms named, tracked and detailed - others were asking why earlier. Its amazing the number of ships out there.
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944. Patrap
8:47 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
All cyclone advisories come to Shipping interest with Ship Avoidance Guidance information that is relayed or viewed by A Captain of a Merchant or Military Vessel. Im sure they will be fine,pvbeachbum
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
941. flzepher
1:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Just got back home from the UCF wipping of Memphis. Wow I see thinks have gotten real interesting today. I notice we have 2 new Invests and by what I see on the loops we will have another one in days to come. I think the CV system will be the most interesting when it is all said and done.
Jeff
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940. pvbeachbum
1:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Icepilot and Seafarer -

I don't like the sounds of a possible storm going into the European shipping lanes since my hubby is on a container ship that will be going that way to Europe next week.

I use the following site to track his ship, and it can also show all the ships in the area.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml?lat=25.6&lon=-86.5&radius=555
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939. extreme236
1:41 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
TD15W has now developed in the wpac
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
938. youradjuster
1:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: icepilot at 1:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

If I remember correctly, No loss of life - just the CO's career - It was blown ashore - your basic OOPS!


When I was in the service if you screwed upp they promoted you. I'm surprized he didn't make Admiral
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937. Patrap
8:36 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Seen a few Co's drop the Ball and get er,reassigned in my time too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
936. icepilot
8:33 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
If I remember correctly, No loss of life - just the CO's career - It was blown ashore - your basic OOPS!
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935. H2PV
1:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
This has been blowing like this for more than 24 hours now: 93B, India.

http://www.h2-pv.us/wiki_100mpg/img/wiki_up/2007265-2333_avn-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
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934. Drakoen
1:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey StormW tell me if you can see a low to mid level twist/circulation on the wave in the CATL. Look at 10N 53W or 13N 52w.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
933. presslord
9:34 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
one of our Charleston tv mets sat by me at mass tonight...afterward he spoke with me a bit about what an important resource this blog is....
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932. Patrap
8:34 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Steve Wessells, USGS, produced this piece which includes Silicon Graphics, Inc., animations, before and after hurricane photos of wetlands, ... all historic storm and damage footage, and inciteful interviews with USGS scientists regarding their coastal research programs. Studies Hurricanes Hugo in Culebra, Puerto Rico, Iniki in Kauai,, Hawaii, and Andrew in coastal Louisiana.


Link
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931. beell
1:32 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: PensacolaBuoy at 1:27 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Here is more confusing gibberish,


Buy those folks a map.
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929. Stoopid1
1:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
95 should be fun to track since it's not going to affect land(unless it actually strikes Greenland, or Iceland). A little safe study never hurts.
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928. PensacolaBuoy
8:31 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
The talking head on the Weather Channel's last tropical update did not even mention 95L. This blog gives a lot better information than TWC and Accuweather!
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926. Patrap
8:30 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Sad to hear that Icepilot,im sure they were in the throes doing their Duty ...sometimes the Job claims lives.

3
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925. zoomiami
1:31 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
thank you storm - nice to have an inkling :}
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924. Stoopid1
1:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
95 sure is a compact, well organized storm. Quite strong, too, considering it isn't classified as anything yet. Water temps are marginal, but sufficent. STD, maybe STS by 11 a.m. tomorrow.
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923. icepilot
8:27 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Yea Patrap, the CG lost a patrol boat in that one if I remember correctly
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922. Weather456
9:29 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 9:26 PM AST on September 22, 2007.
convection appears to be increasing again with 95L, 456 as seen on your image


yeah
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920. icepilot
8:25 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Navy tracks globally - NHC is just pacific and atlantic as far as I know
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918. PensacolaBuoy
8:24 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Here is more confusing gibberish, this from Accuweather's tropical update:

"Another feature to watch carefully is the tropical wave that is in the western Caribbean along 87 west, south of 22 north. The wave is slowly tracking west-northwestward at 3-4 degrees of longitude per day. Upper-level southwesterly winds pulled some thunderstorms into South Florida Friday and earlier today. Thunderstorms have become more widespread along the wave today. After the wave passes through the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 24 hours or so, conditions in the atmosphere will become more favorable for development as upper-level southwesterly winds weaken. Whether or not development occurs, most computer models are showing that moisture from this wave will track toward the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts early in the next workweek.

Yet another tropical wave is to the east of the Lesser Antilles along 58 west, south of 25 north, crawling slowly westward at only 2-3 degrees of longitude per day. Widespread thunderstorms are rumbling along the wave into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although no development will occur in this area through tonight as the wave crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, conditions will become more favorable to development once the wave reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level low tracking westward over the Gulf of Mexico now will begin to pull this feature northward after that, taking any development northward toward southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana. However, the wave may be pulled northward so quickly that there is no time for development to occur.

Farther to the east, a tropical wave is along 58 west south of 22 north, generating showers and thunderstorms northwest of the Virgin Islands. The wave is crawling very slowly westward at only a degree or two of longitude per day. Strong southerly winds aloft over the area are preventing this wave from organizing any further at this point."
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917. extreme236
1:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Even if 95L doenst develop tonight, its not like its going anywhere lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
916. extreme236
1:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
convection appears to be increasing again with 95L, 456 as seen on your image
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
915. Drakoen
1:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

why not Drak it fits all the criteria


Simply because the text for the 00Z run says "disturbance invest" and not "tropical cyclone".
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914. Weather456
9:24 PM AST on September 22, 2007



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913. taco2me61
1:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
It should be STS or maybe TS Jerry by tomorrow around 11am..... Just my thinking....

Nacho Taco :0) :0) :0)
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912. edhanna
1:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
If the nhc's two comes out before 11 like it's supposed too, then we won't have std 11, but if it's 10:50 without any updated two, then that's a sign that we have a new system.
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911. presslord
9:23 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Are tthe NWS/NHC tasked with tracking all weather globally? Or just that weather with the potential to impact US interests?
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909. youradjuster
1:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I just went to the Navy site and none of the invests have changed
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907. Thundercloud01221991
1:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
if it did develop do you think it could turn annular
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906. Bobbyweather
9:23 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
You never know until you find out... LOL
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905. Drakoen
1:22 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I don't think its gonna be anything at 11:00pm...
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904. Patrap
8:21 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Iniki wacked HAwaii in 92.There is some good film /video from the Hurricane available if one looks.
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903. extreme236
1:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
with the navy coordinates, that would make 95L's center only partially exposed, its sure gaining some more tropical characteristics
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901. Bobbyweather
9:21 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Fine. Maybe i'm overeacting. But it should be a STD>
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900. extreme236
1:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
they usually are though, so I have no clue what the nhc wil do
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
899. Weather456
9:20 PM AST on September 22, 2007
95LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-362N-463W
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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