TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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999. JLPR
2:14 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 2:14 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007.

There's nothing that would indicate the Central Atlantic wave to take a Felix track.

There's nothing but upper level troughiness in the path of this wave whereas there was strong ridging to the north of both Felix and Dean which kept those storms trucking towards the west.

Most likely path to be taken by the central Atlantic wave (if it develops) would be towards the northwest.


oh so anything that this wave becomes would come close to PR?
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998. sullivanweather
2:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
There's nothing that would indicate the Central Atlantic wave to take a Felix track.

There's nothing but upper level troughiness in the path of this wave whereas there was strong ridging to the north of both Felix and Dean which kept those storms trucking towards the west.

Most likely path to be taken by the central Atlantic wave (if it develops) would be towards the northwest.
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996. Patrap
9:12 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Reporting?..LOL I never report.If you use the minus ..the post dissapears from view.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
995. sanflee76
2:09 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sorry , a little too many Smithwick's tonite, didn't mean to sound like an imbocile
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994. icepilot
9:07 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
PV - that's the truth - before the Sats were up it was a crap shoot during the season - and Patrap was right on, the major shipping company's really push storm advoidance - lowers costs - and the technology is there to minimise the danger to ship and crew
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993. MrSea
10:09 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
patrap who are you reporting?
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992. decimus785
2:08 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
DDR at 2:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Drakoen,if this wave in the CATL were to develop,what sort of track do you thing it would take?I think i should watch this wave because i live in Trinidad.

i think if this wave develops into something it could take a felix track
991. MrSea
10:08 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
qs
beautiful rotation
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990. Patrap
9:08 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Cant beat that lil Minus button, or the Exclamation tool eiter
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
989. MrSea
10:03 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
wow this is like a Socratic Seminar (thats a good thing) btw I try to sound intense in order to get a response from someone so I can learn, so thank you weather456 and MichaelSTL!!
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988. pvbeachbum
2:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Glad you like the ship tracking site Jupiter - my hubby gave it to me to track his ship - but it's very useful for weather reports as well.
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987. sullivanweather
2:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
SST's doesn't necessarily have to be 26C+ to get tropical/warm-core cyclone formation.

As MichaelSTL pointed out, there were several tropical cyclones in 2005 alone that formed in less than ideal SST's.

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986. Patrap
9:06 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
If a posts annoys someone. Just omit from your view.
Reposting it only shows you took the time to consider it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
985. DDR
2:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drakoen,if this wave in the CATL were to develop,what sort of track do you thing it would take?I think i should watch this wave because i live in Trinidad.
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984. JupiterFL
2:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Pretty good tonight, I will give you that. Sometimes I wanna stick a pencil in my eye reading this blog. By the way that ship website is really cool whoever posted that.
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983. Patrap
9:04 PM CDT on September 22, 2007


Hurricane Rita (9/18 - 9/26)05
Forecast Verification Runs

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
981. zoomiami
2:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I had a friend who lost his tug & barge on a trip to Haiti in the early 90's, same reason, the info wasn't anything like it is now.
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980. extreme236
2:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sanflee76 at 2:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

where is the pacific td going?


Td 15W is in the middle of a sea between two land areas, and pretty much has to hit one of them, and I think that area would be China, the JTWC hasnt released their track yet so im not sure
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
979. pvbeachbum
2:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks Seafarer - they always have done fine - even with Andrea blowing up right on top of them last May... Normally they try to get around storms, but she was a surprise!
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977. Patrap
9:02 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Hurricane Katrina (8/23 - 8/31)
Forecast Verification Runs


Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
976. Thundercloud01221991
2:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
does anyone think that the think in the atlantic could turn annular
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974. sanflee76
2:01 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
where is the pacific td going?
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973. pvbeachbum
2:00 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks Icepilot - they will be in Norfolk tomorrow and then heading out to Europe from there tomorrow night.

He has actually sai things were a log worse years ago when they didn't get such good weather reports and ran into storms more often - especially in the Pacific.
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971. extreme236
2:00 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sanflee76 at 1:59 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Who cares about a TD in the pacific??


People in their paths...thats like saying who cares about other countries...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
970. seafarer459
1:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
pvbeachbum,

i think he(your hubby)will be OK "forwarned is forarmed" . Wish I could comment on the trans atlantic crossing. All my exp was on fishing boats(near shore ) early 90's.. Tugs pulling container barges (off shore } after that.. Have faith.. The hubster will do fine..
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969. Patrap
9:00 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Thats just the Merchant Traffic,US Naval Vessels arent shown.For obvious reasons.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
968. icepilot
8:46 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: pvbeachbum at 8:44 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

Icepilot and Seafarer -

I don't like the sounds of a possible storm going into the European shipping lanes since my hubby is on a container ship that will be going that way to Europe next week.

I use the following site to track his ship, and it can also show all the ships in the area.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml?lat=25.6&lon=-86.5&radius=555


Great Link - thanks. Wish your hubby smooth seas and following winds - that storm should be gone by next week, If he's lucky Grin

Really shows the ship traffic around the world
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966. sanflee76
1:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Who cares about a TD in the pacific??
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965. JLPR
1:58 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
yeah now its round before it was like a line

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963. Justwondering
1:58 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Does anyone have any current tracks for 94L? I....guess I'm confused - been multi-tasking today. Are there *two* disturbances heading towards the GOM?
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962. zoomiami
1:57 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
weathergr & groundman: what you have is some of the best info available - and you keep up, that's more than a lot of people have
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961. pvbeachbum
1:57 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
You are welcome Beell - I checked on the ship reports when my hubby's ship was in the gulf a few days ago and it was interesting to see the wind moving around and the barometer drop when they were just south of the storm.
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958. beell
1:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
pvbeachbum,
nice link. especially those ships reporting weather.
thanks
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957. Drakoen
1:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Area in the CATL lookingmuch better organized compared to when it looked like the ITCZ.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
955. groundman
1:52 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: weatherg8r at 1:13 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Groundman

I work at a utility here in Florida and everyone has been asking ME about the storms since I am on this thing so much, and if anything comes near us we will be work a LOT so they are all interested. I know how you feel with everyone wanting your opinion!


What's scary is I don't know diddely squat and I'm just parroting unless I have an original thought which does come once in a blue moon. LOL
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954. pvbeachbum
1:52 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Zoo - it is amazing how many ships are out htere all the time... I couldn't believe how much traffic there is in the North Atlantic when I first started looking at it...

I like how they will also mark the storms on the map when they are named as well.
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952. MrSea
9:49 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
(but dont get me wrong, 95L is compact and intense)
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950. pvbeachbum
1:50 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks Pat - I know he has been fine for 38 years now doing his seafaring thing...

They did get caught in that blowup of Andrea early this season though - it blew up right on top of them and they had a very rough ride with some damage from it.
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949. flzepher
1:47 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
yea JP, they finally got their act together, new digs, some real good players and coaches.
I know I have to go back a look, but is the Wind patterns going to change in the next day or so infront of 94L. Currently it coming out of the SW blowing everything into FL. Is a ULL going to pull this thing NW or something
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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