TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1049. sanflee76
2:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
But i am giving edhanna the benefit of a doubt that he/she didn't know about the tornado, flooding in florida
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1048. SLU
2:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Skyepony at 2:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

SLU~that spin is well under 10N. Most storms don't survive long that south.


Its true that there isn't enough coriolis force that far south but many cyclones have been spawned off seedlings as far south as this one.
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1047. HurricaneGeek
10:39 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Yes didn't IVAN of 2004 form at 9N? PLEASE correct me if I am wrong...
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1045. Drakoen
2:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Skyepony at 2:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

SLU~that spin is well under 10N. Most storms don't survive long that south.


Its near 8N so its not too far below 10N. Its has been gaining some latitude today.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30604
1044. sporteguy03
2:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
When severe weather effects YOU no longer do you feel it was laughing matter even if it only effects YOU.
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1043. edhanna
2:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sorry jp, I didn't feel that the fatality or flooding was a joke, but naming it a td. Sorry to miscommunicate.
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1042. sanflee76
2:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Jp, my college roommate lived in Boynton Beach and said south florida was lucky it wasn't that bad and could have been worse, i don't quite remember the quote, i was like, "dude, you have got to be kidding me"
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1041. aubiesgirl
2:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
TD 10 ..it was what it was..but I must say even when that disorganized eye went over..it was still mysterious and beautiful
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1040. zoomiami
2:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
icepilot: agreed - even us - think about tracking a storm without the internet. My kids go nuts when the internet is down.
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1039. SLU
2:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
alright JP

But how much more persistance do they need. This is why I believe that there should be set guidelines for naming INVESTS just like they have for naming tropical storms. That way all systems will get treated fairly and not based on the "opinion" of a forecaster.
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1038. pvbeachbum
2:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
LOL Icepilot! It puts them out of all their electronic gizmos and gadgets...

My daughter thinks its funny that when I took Chemistry in high school we did not have calculators and had to use slide rules...

And that we had rotary phones, black and white TV's, and that the only computers were mainframes!

Ooops - I'm dating myself aren't I...
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1037. seafarer459
2:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Icepilot'

When the fuse blowes here. I just power up the ol grundig & tune in the world lol
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1035. Skyepony (Mod)
2:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
SLU~that spin is well under 10N. Most storms don't survive long that south.
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1032. Skyepony (Mod)
2:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
That's 5 areas before Elsewhere in the TWO. Won't be long.
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1028. pvbeachbum
2:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks Lightning - that is definitely good news for S Fla!

We got drenched and flooded here in North Florida earlier in the week - am glad that S Fla is getting some now too.
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1026. SLU
2:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
The NHC is so inconsistent ... The Cape Verde wave looked better organised today than TD #10 throughout its entire existence. Yet still the wave is not an INVEST as yet.

Food For Thought
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1025. pvbeachbum
2:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yea Pat - Shrimp Factory still has that great Chatham Artillery Punch!

Can't imagine the F-4 going under that bridge inverted though - yikes! What a sight!
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1023. extreme236
2:27 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 230226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE


Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1022. LightningCharmer
2:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good News for south Florida. According to radar, over 4 inches of rain have fallen today near and on parts of Lake Okeechobee, and the Kissimmee river watershed. And it looks like more rain is on the way.

Maybe water restrictions might ease (crossing fingers).
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
1021. CaneDoctorMandeli
2:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: edhanna at 2:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Lol, just kidding mandeli.

Lol, I know. Kidding around myself. : )
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1020. Patrap
9:25 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Still there Huh..Man they had good food and er,spirits. Used to drive down with Buddy while at MCAS Beaufort. Saw an F-4 Phantomn go Under that Bridge once inverted too. He kinda caught some grief about that, the Squadron CO..LOL!
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1019. icepilot
9:19 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Patrap - that can't be B street - there is no trash in the gutters LOL - Things have changed there
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1018. sullivanweather
2:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
DDR,

The low south of the Cape Verde's will most likely move towards the NW into the weakness provided by the mid-oceanic trough/TUTT as well.

Although its far south initial latitude will prevent this from happening as quickly. Models still have a SW-NE oriented trough cutting through the central atlantic for the next 5 days at least.
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1017. Drakoen
2:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
IR imagery.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30604
1016. edhanna
2:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Lol, just kidding mandeli.
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1015. groundman
2:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks for the forecast verification runs patrap. Verrrrrry interesting.

I really have to get busy, was going to put a pic of my dog on but not weather related, gave him a haircut and he is SO cute. Bichon, the golden Lab is fine too.
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1014. zoomiami
2:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
StormW answered this earlier:

Posted By: zoomiami at 12:58 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Storm: I know that its really early - but do you have a general idea of what direction the african waves are headed?

Give me about 3 minutes to get back to ya!

Here is a quickcast...lokking at the 12Z steering layers forecast maps...starting with 94L...should maintain a basic NW course for about the next 60 hours. the wave east of the Windward Islands should start to get a more northerly component to it in about 36 hours, as a weakness appears in the ridge. Once that track starts, it should follow that for about 48 hours...two thoughts I have right now on it...goes through the weakness and becomes a fish, or if it moves slow enough, it slows or stalls, then gets kicked back west by the ridge that slides off the east coast of the U.S. in 72-84 hours. The African wave...west for the next 24-36 hours, then it gets a more northerly componet (not too much I think) then the ridge strengthens again. So basically with that one W to WNW for a while.


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1012. CaneDoctorMandeli
2:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: edhanna at 2:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Well you never know, tropical cyclones do strange things.


Oh, sorry. You're right!
Make that 99.9%
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1011. Drakoen
2:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
WV imagery.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30604
1009. edhanna
2:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 2:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

95L Landfall Probs:
(Heres the only time no one will argue with the innocent Doc on here)

Out to sea: 100%

Well you never know, tropical cyclones do strange things.
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1008. seafarer459
2:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Zoomiami,

Know what you mean.. weather reports werenot all that in the 90's..

Left Charleston on a 106 ft tug heading to Savahna 60 nm light to light..3 days later we tied up at the dock on River street..

18 to 20 foot seas aint no pleasure cruise... Weather fax just didn't quite catch it
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1007. JLPR
2:20 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 2:19 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007.

JLPR,

Most likely. Although the further north it moves the more shear its going to be getting into.


umm i see come shear come
lol :P
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1006. CaneDoctorMandeli
2:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
95L Landfall Probs:
(Heres the only time no one will argue with the innocent Doc on here)

Out to sea: 100%
Haha!
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1004. sullivanweather
2:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
JLPR,

Most likely. Although the further north it moves the more shear its going to be getting into.
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1003. DDR
2:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
sullivanweather, thank you for your info,but what about the low south of cape verde islands,what are your thoughts on this system?
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1002. Drakoen
2:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: DDR at 2:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drakoen,if this wave in the CATL were to develop,what sort of track do you thing it would take?I think i should watch this wave because i live in Trinidad.


no way to tell where it will go in the long term however upper level troughs have been eroding the riding therefore a WNW in the short to mid term seems likely.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30604
1001. Patrap
9:09 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Live Bourbon Street Invest, Its Saturday Night Live!

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1000. sanflee76
2:15 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
take it with a grain of salt Michael STL, it's nuthin to get upset about, geez, just looking for a response on why somebody would be curious, your thought process you know?
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999. JLPR
2:14 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 2:14 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007.

There's nothing that would indicate the Central Atlantic wave to take a Felix track.

There's nothing but upper level troughiness in the path of this wave whereas there was strong ridging to the north of both Felix and Dean which kept those storms trucking towards the west.

Most likely path to be taken by the central Atlantic wave (if it develops) would be towards the northwest.


oh so anything that this wave becomes would come close to PR?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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