TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1099. hurricane23
11:04 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Iam ready for back to back invest from NRL if not later this evening more so tommorow.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13629
1097. pvbeachbum
3:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yes Zoo - there have been some very nasty storms on Lake Michigan - and lots of sunk boats and ships there and in Lake Superior as well.

I was in a couple of bad ones while sailing - luckily we came out OK...
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1096. Drakoen
3:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
1095. presslord
11:02 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
part of the attraction of cruising to us is sef sufficiency...GPS is great...'til one day when it doesn't work...then you're gonna need a compass, paper charts, and a sextant....
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1094. shoreacres
2:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Seafarer ~ Sextant...dividers...hand-bearing compass...deviation tables...paper charts...dead reckoning.... Yep. And don't forget tossing the orange peel from the bow to calculate speed!

I'm not making fun, I'm remembering when I first learned piloting. Back then, Loran was HIGH tech, and we didn't count on it!
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1092. zoomiami
3:01 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
PV - don't they get some wicked storms on the lake?
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1085. LightningCharmer
2:58 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: zoomiami at 2:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

was married to a coastie who did all nav by chart & calculation - only loran existed - no gps. Lightening: I was wondering about the ship reporting and how it is currently used?


It's basically used to my understanding to confirm satellite observations. pvbeachbum posted this excellent link earlier.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
1083. Barbados
2:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Does anyone have a good resource to look at a close up of the 11N 55W storm???


I would dreally like to see that as well. Barbados needs rain badly.
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1082. seflagamma
10:55 PM AST on September 22, 2007
icepilot,
that graphic you posted earlier this afternoon was awesome. that put in prespective that storms that may not affect us on land does affect shipping channels... and yes, most of my male family members including my son, joined the NAVY to serve our country.

Thank you for your service and thank your for that Graphic!!!! It opened a lot of eyes.
Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
1080. Skyepony (Mod)
2:54 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yes Ivan, that's why i said most down that far south die..know a dozen or so more off the top of your head? How many in the last 10 years compared to the majority? The odds are slim below 10.
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1076. StormJunkie
2:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
edf, Eumetsat is likely the best place. Under imagery here.

I think sector 4 or 5 are that area.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15666
1075. earthlydragonfly
10:53 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Does anyone have a good resource to look at a close up of the 11N 55W storm???
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1074. pvbeachbum
2:54 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Lightning - yes, ship reports definitely are invaluable - like the hurricane hunters - giving real-time information!
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1073. zoomiami
2:53 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
was married to a coastie who did all nav by chart & calculation - only loran existed - no gps. Lightening: I was wondering about the ship reporting and how it is currently used?
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1072. Skyepony (Mod)
2:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I don't think it will be long till the one off Africa is an invest. So many there die in the 1st day or 2. Give it 24 hrs. Need that for the TCAF anyways..there's your criteria list.
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1071. pvbeachbum
2:53 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yup Seafarer - I do! From my old sail-racing days in Chicago! let's see who else does...
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1070. LightningCharmer
2:53 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: seafarer459 at 2:53 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

technology??

GPS..does anyone know what a sextant is...Hint..(it has nothing to do with pornogrophy)

Yes but on a cloudy night, it's pretty darn worthless.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
1069. pvbeachbum
2:50 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Awesome Katrina image Patrap!

I married and live in NOLA for awhile , but moved here to Florida in '88 - as much as I still love NOLA, I am glad I wasn't there when she arrived...
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1067. LightningCharmer
2:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Before satellites, it was the ship reports that gave the "early" warning regarding tropical systems. Technology has definitely made the world safer but we still can't forget how the use the old methods. Ship reports of weather conditions are still invaluable.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
1066. Patrap
9:50 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Hurricane Ivan, September 2004, Aqua MODIS True Color Image. Super Enlargement


Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
1065. icepilot
9:47 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
What I ment was YOU do it by hand, I can but willuse my fancy palm sized computer thank you very much...
ok last post off topic
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1063. Patrap
9:28 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Hurricane Katrina, August 2005, Terra MODIS True Color Image
Super Enlargement
Click to enlarge

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
1061. pvbeachbum
2:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Exactly Lightning - I now have a handheld PC that can do everything my desktop does... amazing! Definitely makes it easier to track storms, my husband's ship, and check into this blog when I am out and about...

Technology has made us safer from untoward weather events.
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1060. Drakoen
2:46 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Evening stormw.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
1058. WeatherfanPR
2:41 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
hmmm, very interesting that disturbance east of the windwards!!!
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1056. Drakoen
2:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
1055. icepilot
9:42 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
SLU -
from an earlier Dr. M entry:
(My highlighting)

What is an "Invest?
When a National Hurricane Center forecaster sees a tropical disturbance that may be a threat to develop into a tropical depression, the forecaster may label the disturbance an "Invest" and give it a tracking identification number. There is no formal definition of what qualifies as an "Invest". Declaring an "Invest" is merely done so that a set of forecasting aids like computer model track forecasts can be generated for the disturbance.
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1054. Drakoen
2:42 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
1053. flzepher
2:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: SLU at 2:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

alright JP

But how much more persistance do they need. This is why I believe that there should be set guidelines for naming INVESTS just like they have for naming tropical storms. That way all systems will get treated fairly and not based on the "opinion" of a forecaster.

There are guildlines in place. There are a series of observations that have to be occuring for a blob to be made an invest. I will look back at some old post and link it for ya
1052. SLU
2:41 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 2:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Yes didn't IVAN of 2004 form at 9N? PLEASE correct me if I am wrong...


correct
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1049. sanflee76
2:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
But i am giving edhanna the benefit of a doubt that he/she didn't know about the tornado, flooding in florida
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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