TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1149. hurricane23
11:35 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Forcast models HERE on my website.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1148. V26R
3:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Nite Taz
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1147. Chicklit
3:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Check out the 'blob' east of the Lesser Antilles (around 55)
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1146. Tazmanian
8:32 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
good night all 96L and 97L when i wake up and one new name storm on sunday
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1145. Drakoen
3:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Shear maps indicate the CV wave has an upper level high. The cimss lower level convergence and upper level divergence shows a convective current.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
1144. canwatcher
3:31 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Talk about old school I have a weather station that transmits data to my PC for history gathering, but I still like my late 60's model Barograph
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1143. V26R
3:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Evening Adrian, and the rest
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1142. F1or1d1an
3:31 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Bookmarked now, Storm - thanks!

As much as I HATE NMCI (the rulers of the Navy and USMC domains) - I guess I'll have to do business with them... LOL
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1141. hurricane23
11:28 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
This wave of the african coast will indeed by the next invest if not later tonight for sure early tommorow.You can already see some good outflow with the system and with its location at a low latitude it may come west for a while.

I also expect the wave approaching the islands to also get tagged as its show persistence through today and if holds i see both of these systems being tagged.With a nina now in place some active times should be expected in the coming weeks.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1138. Chicklit
3:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey guys...what's the news on the system by 55/10?
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1137. icepilot
10:09 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
who started this techno bashing?
anyway I own a sliderule , Just sold my sextant,
can remember LORAN A and chasing skywaves(LORAN C came later), a plotter was a person not a thing, and dead recon was done to prevent you from being dead. The first NAVSAT (not GPS) system I saw had a "box" the size of a Refrigerator
And I thought B&W TV was normal till I saw a "Color" one
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
1136. F1or1d1an
3:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Gnite PV...

Storm/Drak - where is the "mystery date" that you call 94L? I don't see it on the NHC site as labeled by you guys...
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1134. hurricane23
11:26 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Miamiweather at 11:25 PM EDT on September 22, 2007.

hey 23 I hope everything is going well what are you monitoring.

Wave approaching the islands....
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1132. Miamiweather
3:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
got it StormW i am surprised ur on so late today
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1131. pvbeachbum
3:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good night all - I am still nursing a concussion and need to get my rest to get over it. It looks like we may have more to watch tomorrow and into next week...
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1129. Miamiweather
3:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
hey 23 I hope everything is going well what are you monitoring
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1128. Drakoen
3:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I'll be more intersted when the system gets into the Gulf right now its one elongated mess.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
1127. hurricane23
11:18 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
NHC is likely waiting to see a tad stronger winds on quikscat before they go ahead and issue advisorys on it on the 1010mb low of the african coast.

Here's a good loop on this soon to be invest if not tonight early in the morning.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1126. F1or1d1an
3:22 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L? did I misplace it? Looks like just barely south of coast of Yucatan peninsula, if not just north of the coastline, right? Don't see it on the NHC site...
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1125. presslord
11:23 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
thanks storm
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1123. Miamiweather
3:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey storm I hope everything is going well quick question the system that I should keep my eyes on is the wave east of the windward islands correct? This is what is at greatest risk to me?
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1122. shoreacres
3:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Seafarer...

and a chart box, thank you very much! I still have all of mine, nicely rolled and not folded like a road map - lol!
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1121. StormJunkie
3:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Evening 459 :~)
Stop by here and leave you're story if you don't mind. You too press, if you are still around.

And evening to everyone else ☺

Thanks edf!!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1120. presslord
11:20 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Drak....Storm....please share with Earthlings what you're talkin' about
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1118. pvbeachbum
3:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Teaching kids about weather is fun and good for them FLoridian...

My daughter is now almost 18, but still loves to track storms and go out walking on the beach in them when they aren't too bad. We're in North Fla so haven't gotten the brunt of anything... just the fun stuff!
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1117. Drakoen
3:19 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 3:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drak,
Go to CIMSS wind shear map...look over the top of 94L...what do you see?


yea that upper level high has been there since this morning. There is also an upper level high over the CV wave.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
1116. F1or1d1an
3:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Taz - you know better than to RIP it right now - wait until it hits the GOM to see if it can regenerate...
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1113. F1or1d1an
3:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
PV - yup.

Dead reckoning is an art - had to learn how to do it adequately for my PPSEL. Glad my CFI was a brute - my check ride included finding an airport with simulated stack failure.

Right now, teaching my youngest how to read a Wx chart - she wanted to know why I look at those "funny lines on the map". Last few days have been great here (Fl panhandle) - she proved she knows different types of clouds and what they can indicate. Not bad for 9 yrs old...
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1112. Nanya
3:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drak, I see a big question mark right in the middle of the Atlantic. That's how I feel about it all.

Thanks.
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1111. Chicklit
3:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Looks like things are 'ramping up' again in the Atlantic...Should be pretty busy here within a day or so, huh? Thanks for the satellite pics Drak.
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1109. Tazmanian
8:07 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
looks like the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles 94L is RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1108. seafarer459
3:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Shore acres,

They still use paper charts...Better have one when entering a port.. And i as a child remember the radio beacon on the AM band...
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1107. Joshfsu123
3:08 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
That western atlantic system is quite interesting. If it looks this good tomorrow still when I get up in the morning, something could be developing there.

Wouldn't shock me if by Monday, we have 3 if not 4 systems out there.

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1106. Drakoen
3:09 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
yea Adrian. I expect two invest tomorrow.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
1105. pvbeachbum
3:08 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I agree Floridian - it's important to know how to do things by hand also - math and navigation - technology can also fail or lose power!
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1103. F1or1d1an
2:59 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: pvbeachbum at 2:46 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Technology has made us safer from untoward weather events.


Unfortunately, it has made us less adaptable, too. I require my kids to do math "the hard way" - by hand - my 15 year old complains that I won't let her use a calculator but her teacher will (she's happy I'm on the road a lot!).

Got a laugh out of my daughter when she found my slide rule - wanted to know what kind of ruler it was...

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1102. pvbeachbum
3:04 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Exactly shoreacres - I remember! Loran was pretty high tech when I first started sail-racing also - not all boats had one!

Weather forecasting was looking at the sky and holding your wet finger up to the wind...
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1100. Sophmom
10:59 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Interesting, Patrap, to know the different routes of Ivan and Katrina, given the similarity of their respective locations in the Gulf, judging by your links. When I go back and forth to NOLA I drive I-65 between Montgomery and Mobile and can still see Ivan's destruction, way inland.

I also liked the USGS video. I was reading in a friend's blog today about a local news report on the loads of underwater debris washed out by Katrina in lower Plaquemines parish, some of which is apparently providing foundation for river sediment, creating new land. ???
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1099. hurricane23
11:04 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Iam ready for back to back invest from NRL if not later this evening more so tommorow.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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