TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1199 - 1149

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

1199. icepilot
11:08 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
yr welcom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1198. JRRP
4:03 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
THE WAVE NEAR TO THE ANTILLES HAS GOOD CONVECTION AND THE CV WAVE LOOKS LIKE A CICLONE!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1197. Drakoen
4:06 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 4:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drak, you talking about the CV wave making the Carib?


No, i'm talking about the area east of the lesser Antilles making it into the caribbean
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1195. StormJunkie
4:04 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drak, you talking about the CV wave making the Carib?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1194. 0741
4:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
SW do you see area east islands get shear like imgrid?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1193. Drakoen
4:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1192. V26R
4:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanx Ice
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1191. StormJunkie
4:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
What is it?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1190. StormJunkie
4:00 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Evening tigger, good to see you!

Was talking to my Mom tonight about the Atlantic house. Seems that the house next to it had already been demolished prior to Hugo.

Also, this video may help you understand how to get a better idea of how something may track.

FSU Model Page Navigational Tutorial Video
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1189. Drakoen
4:00 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
tiggeriffic low level steering would take it into the Caribbean after that it is unknown...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1186. tiggeriffic
3:53 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
drak,

was just at crown weather, the system just to the NE of PR is looking pretty good. Trying to figure which way this will track for a while, any clues? Seems as though as a general rule, if they track below PR, they go to the GOM, if they track to the north or just over PR, they east coast it or recurve
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1185. icepilot
10:55 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: V26R at 10:46 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

Okay quick question

Who's responsibility for Mediterarian Area
for Storms and any links?

Nice & Nasty Looking swirl out in the Western Med right now



Try this
UK Met

or the Air Force
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1184. Drakoen
3:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I'm starting to some spiral bands out of the CV wave. Looking at the EUMETSAT and Navy imagery.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1183. V26R
3:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thats good SJ Just Get back on your feet!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1181. seflagamma
11:52 PM AST on September 22, 2007
StormW,
Thanks for explaining this to us! You are one of the good ones!

Going to bed soon; cannot wait to wake up tomrrow and see what is going on in these tropics!!!!

Good night all!
Gams
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1180. StormJunkie
3:53 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good V2, thanks! Still hacking some, but that is to be expected from what everyone else that has had it told me.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1179. Vortex95
3:52 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
interesting week is coming let us see what will happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1176. Nanya
3:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
StormW, excellent explanation. Even I get it.

Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1175. StormJunkie
3:48 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
As for the the CV wave, that thing does look very impressive. That said, looks like the GFS is forecasting a front that could recurve anything that gets too far N. Still some wait and see on it though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1174. Drakoen
3:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Nice explanation StormW as i would expect from a met.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1173. V26R
3:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Evening SJ how ya feelin today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1171. StormJunkie
3:48 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sheri, love the pups :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1170. catastropheadjuster
3:32 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey guys I see we have a couple of interesting waves out there. Does everyone still think that 94l is gonna make a B line to the TX/LA border? Or has everything changed already. I know early on things show one thing but sometimes it does just the opposite. I am just wondering. If you all have time to answer.
Sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1169. TayTay
3:45 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Quite a few blobs and a non-tropical system. Busy Atlantic this weekend. Something's bound to form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1168. seflagamma
11:45 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Drak, thank you so much for the reply that is good to know.. we will have several systems to take up our weekend! but when you are a "weather geek/nerd" that is ok!

Will be in and out tomorrow as I can in this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1167. V26R
3:45 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Okay quick question

Who's responsibility for Mediterarian Area
for Storms and any links?

Nice & Nasty Looking swirl out in the Western Med right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1166. Drakoen
3:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L and 97L could be seen tomorrow east of the lesser antilles and South of the CV islands.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1165. Tazmanian
8:42 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
and yet that CV wave is not 96L LOL


thanks evere one


96L and 97L on sunday and one new name strom
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
1164. seflagamma
11:40 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Taz, Good night David, you did good today with your predictions!

Where are we now as far as the systems go???

Drake do you think that system that looks so good very south of CV will be invest96. that storm really looks good even thought it is so far out.

StormW, thanks for your info and my mail!

will be lurking just a little longer tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1163. Drakoen
3:41 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: F1or1d1an at 3:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Convective current - rising warm air? Kinda like convection ovens?


see here. I would suggest saving this link.
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1161. tiggeriffic
3:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
just getting in, which area are we discussing at the moment?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1160. earthlydragonfly
11:37 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
I tell you folks that storm just west of the Lesser antillies is quite impressive!! the convection if firing, The out flow to the north is impressive. It looks also the storm is getting better organized. when this strom gets its head above 12N, I think you will really see some fireworks.

Any other opinions from some of you pros??
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
1159. Drakoen
3:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
as the NHC says "well-organized"
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1158. F1or1d1an
3:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Convective current - rising warm air? Kinda like convection ovens?
1157. Drakoen
3:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: F1or1d1an at 3:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Nite Taz...

Drak - now you're just talkin' Esperanto. English, please for those of us still learning the tropical lingo... :-)


LOL ok basically it has a good outflow and the convection is able to build at the surface and spread outward in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1156. decimus785
3:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
take care Taz
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1155. Drakoen
3:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1154. Miamiweather
3:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Adrian don't you think the wave by the islands is pretty far south
1152. icepilot
10:36 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Guys any more info on 10L.NONAME ? oops, forget I asked duh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1151. F1or1d1an
3:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Nite Taz...

Drak - now you're just talkin' Esperanto. English, please for those of us still learning the tropical lingo... :-)
1150. KrazyKaneLove
3:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
hi everyone! Can someone tell me when CV storms usually end and when us floridians typically have to start watching the gulf storms(going east), like Wilma did.I remember Charlie went east, wasn't that earlier in the season? Or is it all a matter of the general patterns each year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1149. hurricane23
11:35 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Forcast models HERE on my website.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1199 - 1149

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.