TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1249. mississippiwx23
5:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
When you say 'they', who do you mean? If you mean the NHC, they havent said anything, except that it could become a depression in the next few days. As for the models, yes, only a tropical storm.
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1248. tiggeriffic
5:19 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
cattle, you have to remember, surge is lower with a TS than a hurricane, it also depends on when it makes landfall, if tide is low or high, not sure about texas but it does make a diff in SC
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1247. mississippiwx23
5:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
franck,

95l isnt named, it is just an invest at this point. However, I think it will indeed get a name tomorrow. It has become tropical, and anything that is tropical can be named. It does not have to be near a land mass. Do not forget that the shipping lanes go through that region.
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1246. cattlebaroness
5:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks everyone. Are they still saying only a TS. Don't mean to sound callious but that is just not much wind, when you are from TX we get high speed winds with lots of storms. its the wind combined with storm surge, and rain that worries me.
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1245. mississippiwx23
5:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Looking at the models and current conditions, I do not have too much confidence on 94L. It could have a chance to develop considering the gulf is so warm, but the upper level winds in the western gulf are not condusive for development. The only way I see more than a depression coming out of it is if the hwrf is correct, where it stalls just before reaching the coast and drifts back south. Otherwise, I think it will just be a rain event from mexico to LA.
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1244. tiggeriffic
5:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
i caught it and fixed it but it is only 6 hours for the gfdl, all the others are 12
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1243. TampaSpin
1:13 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: tiggeriffic at 1:11 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

cattle,

Not sure of the intensity but the GFDL has it hitting between mexico and texas, if i understand the tracking correctly, each little dot either represents 24 or 12 hours, but I think it is 24, either way, it is at least 4 - 5 days out...dont take my word, but that is what it appears to be

Sorry, but, each dot represent 6 hours
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1242. tiggeriffic
5:11 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
let me fix what i said, each model is different, look at the tropical page, computer models part, the GFDL is 3 1/2 days out as of the last update
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1241. franck
5:09 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Anybody care to speculate why 95I was named? Wasn't it essentially nothing much to begin with, 'modeled' to move toward colder waters and become even less.
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1240. tiggeriffic
5:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
cattle,

Not sure of the intensity but the GFDL has it hitting between mexico and texas, if i understand the tracking correctly, each little dot either represents 24 or 12 hours, but I think it is 24, either way, it is at least 4 - 5 days out...dont take my word, but that is what it appears to be
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1239. TampaSpin
1:09 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: cattlebaroness at 1:05 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

if anyone is still awake, can you please tell me if that storm in the gulf is still suppose to shoot across the yucatan and hit the US coast by sunday/monday and at what intensity?

Cattle--Looks like Monday Tex/Mex but could stall before it gets there.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1238. cattlebaroness
5:04 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
if anyone is still awake, can you please tell me if that storm in the gulf is still suppose to shoot across the yucatan and hit the US coast by sunday/monday and at what intensity?

Thank you.
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1237. tiggeriffic
5:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
nite david
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1236. smmcdavid
12:00 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Off to bed... talk to everyone tomorrow at some point.

sm
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1235. cattlebaroness
4:59 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
i guess they are sleeping. hoping to get some idea of what is instore for the coast tomorrow.
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1234. Progster
4:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
for quick Med, eastern Atl imagery try Eumetsat. Link
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1233. TampaSpin
12:57 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: smmcdavid at 12:51 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Where is everyone?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1232. tiggeriffic
4:53 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
probably double tabbing david
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1231. smmcdavid
11:51 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Where is everyone?
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1230. KoritheMan
4:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Patience on the CV wave, folks. I'm pretty sure tommorow it will be 96L or 97L if that wave east of the islands becomes something.

I see no reason why it won't be an invest tommorow.
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1229. cattlebaroness
4:48 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
yes. Could someone please tell me what intensity 94L will end up at, in your opinion.

Thanks.
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1228. tiggeriffic
4:47 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
tampa's pic is not showing up here, anyone else having the same problem?
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1227. TampaSpin
12:43 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1226. Labayourambler
4:41 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
At this time, is LA still a possible target for 94L in the NW Carib??
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1224. tiggeriffic
4:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
SJ, the video is great...I understand how highs, lows and shear affect tropical systems, I don't always know how to navigate to get the information to tell me what the expected highs or lows are...shear I can get from wunderground, I also have learned that the GFDL is the most accurate for the most part, the navy uses the 1,2,3 methodology so that is part of why they are usually so far off.
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1223. catastropheadjuster
4:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
StormJunkie: Thank you I love my babies.
Sheri
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1222. Drakoen
4:31 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Anyways good night everyone! tomorrow should be interesting...
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1221. Drakoen
4:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
no problem. I have alot of sources...
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1220. jpritch
4:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drak, the CV wave is looking pretty TS like already. It IS surprising that they haven't called it an invest yet. Maybe they're all asleep ;)

And by the way, thanks for the nice images of it!
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1219. cattlebaroness
4:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thank you stayaway. So it is not moving as fast as earlier predicted as in a Sunday/Monday landfall as a possible TS. Sounds like there might be a chance for development if it does not whip across the gulf in record time. I guess also a chance it dies due to shear?
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1218. 0741
4:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok i did not nice it look like area east of islands going get shear soon
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1217. Drakoen
4:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
SJ it doesn't matter where it is. If something is worthy it will be called.
Heres imagery of the CV wave and the lesser antilles wave at the top of the picture.
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1216. StormJunkie
4:19 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
It is in the middle of nowhere Drak. NHC has a tendency to do this. Really no big deal since it is not threatening anyone for quite some time. imho.
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1215. tiggeriffic
4:19 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
ty SJ
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1214. ajcamsmom
11:18 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Yes StormW left and very politely I might add...
Posted By: StormW at 10:55 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.

Good night everyone!

Again...it's been a pleasure.
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1213. 0741
4:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
did sw leave?
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1212. stayawaycantore
4:15 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L is still only an invest, and the models show it heading NNW. Along that path, it will encounter 30mp-40mp shear, but it will also track over the warmest waters of the gulf. It probably won't develop real quickly in that wind shear, and the air has been pretty dry there hasn't it? Steering winds should keep it out of the central gulf for the next 72 hours so if it develops at all, it should be slow to develop and threaten LA or TX.

That's my non-professional analysis. The worst case is that the dry air dissipates, the shear dies down, and it hits that really warm water just in time to ramp up.

But like I said, I'm not a pro.
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1211. cattlebaroness
4:13 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
smmcdavid, I will have to tailgate behind you. I just came back from rodeo, can someone please provide a quick update. Sure appreciate it.
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1210. Drakoen
4:15 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
This is really something. all these indication and no floater or invest on it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30829
1208. tiggeriffic
4:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
gimme a few min, can you also send a link to my email...Dont always have time with a 3 yr old running round...would be nice so that I can watch it several times...make sure I absorb everything
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1207. icepilot
11:10 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Drax -They should get numbers now
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1206. Drakoen
4:11 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: 0741 at 4:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drakoen their did not add area east of islands to map yet


nope. That has to persist maybe tomorrow they will.
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1205. 0741
4:09 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drakoen their did not add area east of islands to map yet
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1204. StormJunkie
4:09 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
That seems somewhat likely, although the GFS seems to take the area of vorticity associated with it towards the northern islands.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1203. smmcdavid
11:08 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
Been busy today. Who wants to fill me in on all the latest? 94L still the only invest, right? Where's it going now?
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1202. StormJunkie
4:06 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Will have to give it a try. Have used honey and whiskey before. Throw it in the microwave and take it with a spoon. The vapors coming off of it are unreal and will choke you up if not careful! Will have to just add the vinegar to my concoction.

Would love to hear you're feed back on the vid. It is 12 minutes long, and gets more interesting as it goes.

Also the beginning of a larger index here.
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1201. Drakoen
4:09 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
finally
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1199. icepilot
11:08 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
yr welcom
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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