TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1299 - 1249

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

1299. mit5000
8:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007


000
ABNT20 KNHC 230226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.


3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

4. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

5. THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE


the tow i have bolded have big possibleitys
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1298. mit5000
8:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
can some 1 help - td 11 is not up on noaas web site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1297. groundman
8:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
OMG what's the deal, 3 invests and two TD's on the navy page? My head is starting to hurt again, you all get this figured out before I get back up OK?? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1296. mit5000
8:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
whats going on?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1295. Hurricaneblast
8:15 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Invests 96 and 97L are up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1294. franck
8:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Pensacoladoug...thanks..exactly as I might have thought.

Anybody notice the wall shear setting up in the western GoM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1293. PensacolaDoug
7:58 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
That seems almost unreal...

I heard one once crossed the equator before. I don't know the details. I dont even know if it was in th Atlantic basin. I'm curious tho about whats the furthest south one has spun up, (not counting the Brazil-cane in the southern hemisphere from last year)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1290. eye
7:56 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
if the early models are right, it is going more WNW than W right now. Anyways, off to bed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1289. PensacolaDoug
7:54 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
CV system is at 6.2 N?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1286. eye
7:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
look on the front page of weatherunderground
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1285. PensacolaDoug
7:42 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Anybody know why ground clutter is so prominent on radar images as of late? It gives the viewer the notion that there is moisture where there is none. Have I answered my own question?


When precip is really light or non-existant, operators sometimes tune their recievers to a very sensitive setting in an attempt to pick up very weak retuns. This causes the clutter echoes around the transmitter site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1283. eye
7:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
96l has arrived...ships makes it a cane, like every invest...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1282. franck
7:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Anybody know why ground clutter is so prominent on radar images as of late? It gives the viewer the notion that there is moisture where there is none. Have I answered my own question?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1279. sullivanweather
7:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
that's old td-13
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1278. whodat54321
7:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
looking out into the east pac., Ivo is toast.
might even dissapate before landfall before getting caught up in the northern flow that reaches well into Canada.
an interesting area firing up near 17n 127w. persistant, but may wind up being nothing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1277. sullivanweather
7:04 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Krothie,

Sorry, but that's wishcasting.

I asked for a rationale and the reply was a 'feeling'.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1276. KoritheMan
7:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yeah, the Carribean disturbance doesn't look like much. I think it has a 30% chance to become a tropical depression down the road though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1275. KoritheMan
6:58 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
TD11 reminds me of Noel in 2001.

But yes, it looks remarkably subtropical.

And sullivan, that's not wishcasting. That's predicting. Granted, it's absurb to try and predict something that far out, it's not wishcasting.

I am getting sick of hearing that W word.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1273. islagal
6:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Not too much coming through off of Isla Mujeres, (Cancun) today or tonight...a few 10 minute rain showers, a little wind and no lightning or thunder. Wind is picking up a little, but seems to have gone south of us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1272. Hurricaneblast
6:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
It's most likely Subtropical Depression, doesn't look fully tropical just yet
11
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1268. sullivanweather
6:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Georges98,

Unfortunately that's called wishcasting. To say you feel a storm is going to be stronger than the 9th most intense hurricane recorded thus far in the Atlantic basin, when it hasn't even been named an invest yet, let alone a depression...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1267. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
1266. franck
6:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
mississippiwx23...yes, thanks. I can understand if ocean traffic is a key consideration. 95I is certainly very far north to be developing tropical characteristics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1265. 0741
6:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
all sat pic are old so we need wait later to see how cv system and wave east islands look we in blckout now time on sat pic say 3:15utc that mean is from 11pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1263. Georges98
1:57 AM AST on September 23, 2007
you know sullivanweather,it's a feeling.This one are in the region where hurricanes Georges and Ivan formed and most models suggest that a subtropical ridge will in 3/5 days form now,however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1261. groundman
6:01 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Been interesting, we shall probably notice I said probably have a busy week ahead of us.
Nite all,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1260. Georges98
1:52 AM AST on September 23, 2007
cattlebaroness,if the storm reform in the gulf,it could reach a modest tropical storm 50 mph at least monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1259. beell
5:53 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
G'nite all.
Skyepony,
Thanks for the TCFA criteria. There was an item under "misc"-72 hrs or less from DoD Resource. Might have given this item a few extra points for 95l
edited hrs in bold
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1258. sullivanweather
5:52 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Georges98 at 5:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

It could be more powerful and slowest than Dean



What's your rationale for this assertion?



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1257. JLPR
5:49 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
will be watching Georges98
well goodnight
i bet i will see a storm out of the cv low or out of 95l tomorrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1256. Georges98
1:45 AM AST on September 23, 2007
this september 20th 2007 might be the hurricane season peak with 2 weeks late start.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1255. Skyepony (Mod)
5:42 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
NWS Eustis storm survey is out, includes a map of the path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1254. Georges98
1:09 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Most of us are talking especially about the cv wave but we right, most of the notables hurricanes
are from there except the 2005 hurricane season
with only 2 form in the central atlantic.About this one,even far south,I think he could become TD sunday night or monday morning as it move west north west. It should follow Dean track but a bit northward.The leeward islands,a week from there,virgin islands and puerto rico needs to watch very carefully this one.It could be more powerful and slowest than Dean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1253. JLPR
5:42 AM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
96?

we could say this low passed the invest status and is almost a td by the way its looking
probably a td tomorrow
well goodnight yall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1252. beell
5:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
ir
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1251. cattlebaroness
5:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Nite all. I have critters to see to in the morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1250. beell
5:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wave E of the Islands
As per StormW-There does appear to be a low to mid level circulation just SE of 15N 45W. Probably right on the wave axis. E of the main blob
Use the zoom tool if you want.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1249. mississippiwx23
5:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
When you say 'they', who do you mean? If you mean the NHC, they havent said anything, except that it could become a depression in the next few days. As for the models, yes, only a tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1299 - 1249

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
32 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron