TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1349. ladyluck276
6:49 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I think 96L will become Chantal
1348. Tazmanian
3:47 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
ok 236


i think 97L will be more of a gulf storm


and 96L be more of a FL/gulf storm
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1347. extreme236
10:48 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L

image
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1346. extreme236
10:47 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Oh, and the reason the NHC says upper level winds will be favorable for 94L to develop in the gulf is because there is a anticyclone over it, that is producing a low shear enviroment
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1345. Weather456
6:43 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:42 AM AST on September 23, 2007.
what you all think about 97L where do you think its going 236 and 456?


This one is going west to west-northwest into the Caribbean. It will affect the nearby islands but it is uncertain whether is will affect the NW Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba, Yucatan) or the enter the Gulf. A large high is over the SE US right now. So its uncertain...let me check something and get back to you on the latter part.
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1344. extreme236
10:46 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
well, the steering would seem to take it on a westerly path into the caribbean, while the early models (BAMM, BAMD, et.) pretty much all want to take it toward hispanola
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1343. Tazmanian
3:45 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
ok 236
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1342. extreme236
10:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:42 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

what you all think about 97L where do you think its going 236 and 456?

Let me check the models and the steering and then I will tell you where I think it will go...brb
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1341. Weather456
6:41 AM AST on September 23, 2007
96L

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1340. Tazmanian
3:41 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
what you all think about 97L where do you think its going 236 and 456?
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1339. WCFla
10:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Holy Cow, who forgot to turn off the invest machine?
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1338. stormybil
10:32 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
wow 4 invest for the weekend to watch and those models track want to make you go hmmmmmmm
1337. SLU
10:32 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stoormfury at 10:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

SLU Where are you these days. there is something at our door steps during the next 48hrs. maybe a strong TS or cat1


*YAWN* yeah thanks for waking me out of bed.

BOY!! I expected that to happen when the GFS began to go nuts a feew days ago. Looks like we're in for some August 1995 - like action.

Threat # 1 is invest 97L. The SST's between it and the Islands are between 84F and 86F. VERY WARM! 1 - 2 degrees warmer than normal so lookout.

Threat # 2 is the Cape Verde wave which I think will become a classical Cape Verde type tropical cyclone which is unusually far south (6.2n 26.1w) and may come west as high pressure builds across the Atlantic.

Threat # 3 is invest 94L. The center is still over land so it might be the last of the 3 to develop. I think is will become a cyclone once it goes over water again.

Threat # 4 is Subtropical depression #11. Its far from land so it will get the least attention. Plus, i'm not a big fan of hybrid and subtropical cyclones.
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1336. Chicklit
10:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Bajelayman said it was hot in Barbados...It didn't cool down for long after 93L in Central Florida, either.
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1335. Weather456
6:39 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Yeah..97L took me by surprise when i saw it this morning.
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1334. extreme236
10:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
convection wrapping around on the eastern side of STD11, so im thinking this will become tropical later today and become Jerry
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1333. floridaeast
10:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
looks like this season is going to be late october--
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1332. extreme236
10:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L is looking really good...wouldnt be surprised to see a TD at the next advisory with this one
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1331. Weather456
6:36 AM AST on September 23, 2007
STD 11, the 4th of the season

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1330. sporteguy03
10:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
so much for an inactive season lol
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1329. extreme236
2:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
could we get anymore active in the tropics? LOL....we could get 3 more cyclones in the next couple days, and we have STD11
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1328. Weather456
6:33 AM AST on September 23, 2007
and when 94L merges into the gulf it become more busy.
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1327. bajelayman2
10:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Stormfury, so you are also in the lslands, which one?
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1326. Weather456
6:31 AM AST on September 23, 2007
96L
1007 mb
25 knots

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1325. hurricane23
10:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow on the PC at work and the atlantic is explodeing with to 2 systems looking very good on satelitte imagery this morning.....Could be a long ride the next couple weeks.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1324. Weather456
6:29 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Good Morning


Busy, Busy Busy Tropics today....get ur seat belts....

97L





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1323. stoormfury
10:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
SLU Where are you these days. there is something at our door steps during the next 48hrs. maybe a strong TS or cat1
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1322. bajelayman2
10:19 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
If the wind shear is low, and with the winds high so early by the CV Islands, then 96L will probably reach CAT 3 well before is passes the Windward and Leeward islands, no?

It does not bode well for it to be strong so early. This may be the season 'monster'.
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1321. Chicklit
10:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Eye, you forgot to mention the wave east of the Lesser Antilles. That looks like it's beginning to pack a punch, too, and shear doesn't appear to be an issue with either system.
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1320. Chicklit
10:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007

Wow, they named this quickly; reminds me of how they handled Dean.
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1319. eye
10:13 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
i think the CONUS also might have to worry about 97l, more so than 96l, and more so in terms of strength than 94l and we all know the CONUS is out of the woods for 95l, my head hurts, night!
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1318. floridaeast
10:11 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
that vest 96 sure looks like it has its sht together, low shear to delovope.
will be watching this one
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1317. bajelayman2
10:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
The CATL system must be travelling 10-15mph, which bring it to us tomorrow eveing/ night.

Probably a storm, could it possibly reach CAT 1 by the time it gets to 59.4W longitude, whatever latitude, we are at 13.1N.

This season seems to be the season for precocious storms i.e. they develop so quickly, almost out of the blue.
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1316. stoormfury
9:56 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Bajelayman2

you are so right. have you looked to the east of barbados. this system is a precursor of thigs to come
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1315. Chicklit
9:56 AM GMT on September 23, 2007

This is on Floater 2, just east of the Lesser Antilles.
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1314. stoormfury
9:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
good morning
all of yesterday i stressed on the deveoping tropical wave east of the windward islands. all the emphasis was on anarea in the far eastern south atlantic. the CALT is about 500miles away from the islands and nearing TD/TS stage. My position on this sytem it will be a TD today. Warning and watches will be needed for some of the central windward iclands today.
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1313. bajelayman2
9:48 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Unfortunately it looks as if yesterday's heat here in Barbados was a good indicator of what is brewing. It was just too hot here and I had a suspicion.

Last night was cool, but today will probably be another blisterer as these systems pack up their force. Whenever a serious system is brewing this happens.

And this thing coming from Cape Verde is so darn low, which spells trouble unless it steers far North for some reaosn.

Anyone have a link to steering models and intensity yet?

Please?

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1312. mit5000
9:48 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
where is every 1?
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1311. KRL
9:46 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: bswigg at 9:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Hello all...where is 97L at?


Invest
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1310. mit5000
9:45 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: bswigg at 9:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Hello all...where is 97L at?


near some islands
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1309. bswigg
9:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hello all...where is 97L at?
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1308. mit5000
9:13 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
500

what if std 11 dont move?
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1307. mit5000
9:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
500

i really dont know when td 10 will come back out
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1306. Hurricanman
9:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Another exciting week in hurricane land...
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1305. KRL
9:03 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Tracks 96



Tracks 97

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1304. KRL
8:58 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Now we've got Invest 97 too.

Invest 97
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1303. groundman
8:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
OH and thanks for the TWO, I like my sytems 1 or two @ a time though, they'll just have to take one back. LOL
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1302. groundman
8:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
morning mit 5000, where/when is 10L noname supposed to come back out, did you see any info??
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1301. mit5000
8:32 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
10L is not a tropical cyclone - but could reform once off land.

11L is a new cyclone - need to wait for 1st noaa advisory.
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1300. mit5000
8:32 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
10l is still up

what is it with the navy?
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1299. mit5000
8:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007


000
ABNT20 KNHC 230226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.


3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

4. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

5. THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE


the tow i have bolded have big possibleitys
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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