TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2699. presslord
7:30 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
TV mets have been so beat up about panic mongering they're afraid to stick their necks out...most play it very conservative....
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2698. zoomiami
11:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sflorida: I'm sure the people you told that it was going to hit told you were wrong and over reacting.
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2697. sporteguy03
11:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
The Eustis, FL Tornado caused $6.2 Million in Damege.

http://www.wftv.com/news/14184117/detail.html

Just goes to show you that a weak minor system can still cause great damage.
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2696. hurricane23
7:27 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
456 i have that one which which is available to the public.Here is the one i mean is only allowed for cira personnel.

Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
2695. zoomiami
11:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Tampa: I think you are right about the way the local forecasters played that - most people, not all, will tend to believe what they see and hear. As more people have been exposed to the storms, a level of sophistication has occurred. It didn't exist then.
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2694. BahaHurican
7:23 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
SoFL,

Your post was a timely one, because it reminds us that anyone in the vicinity of a 'cane could potentially find themselves under the gun. Just a wobble or two can make a big difference that close to land.

I also hope television mets are more careful and thorough in their forecasts. And while I don't think they should frighten people unnecessarily, they need to learn to say "prepare for the worst (and this is the worst) but hope for the best".
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2693. cantoriesnumber1fan
11:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Link
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2692. SaymoBEEL
11:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Link

WET WET WET
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2691. TampaSpin
7:21 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
94L Just did a Goes close up and that is the Coc at 90/24
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2689. JLPR
11:23 PM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
yeah both 96l and 97l with the dmax sould get close to td status but i expect more out of 96l
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2688. Sfloridacat5
11:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Anyone with a T.V. or computer with radar could see that Hurricane Charley was heading directly at S.W. Florida. It came off Cuba and made a direct path towards Ft. Myers. Then just as the eye wall was about to move into the Ft. Myers Beach area it shifted slightly to the North and crossed North Captiva.
I kept telling everyone it was coming right at us, while the local meteorologist we're saying it was going North of Tampa. It wasn't until the storm was almost on top of us that the local meteorologist said look out for a direct hit.
I have the radar of Charley moving into the area on tape. It was a really small yet intense storm.
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2687. Weather456
7:22 PM AST on September 23, 2007
H23 try this link



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2686. nrtiwlnvragn
11:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
GOES is in rapid scan operation this evening. If you use the NASA Infrared Image you can create loops that have image updates on the average of every 7 minutes. Downside is you have to manually refresh them.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
2684. taco2me61
11:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey Number1Fan,
I did not get that link that you were trying to do can you try it again...

Thanks Taco :0)
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2683. Tazmanian
4:17 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
96L is now in vie nic baning on it by the way now where that Floater i been waiting for 12hrs so i can make my blog for 96L and 97L

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2682. Miamiweather
11:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
hey 23 do you mind saying what are your views on 97L?
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2681. cirrocumulus
11:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Extreme236: As you said, there is a new flareup just starting at 94L. This is because it is just now entering the very warm gulf of Mexico!
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2680. presslord
7:22 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
me either fan...
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2679. Weather456
7:20 PM AST on September 23, 2007
DMAX will also bring 97L near TD status

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2678. SaymoBEEL
11:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Try again fan :-)
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2677. hurricane23
7:19 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
456 i would post somwe images form the ramsdis floater but i cant.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
2676. cantoriesnumber1fan
11:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Not liking the looks of this..

Link
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2675. taco2me61
11:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Misscajun,
Just wondering what are you Testing ????

Taco :0)
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2674. pottery2
7:14 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Pam in Guadeloupe, HI.
96 L is the area way across the Atl. near Africa. It could indeed get to you, but the one to watch now is 97 L, just East of Trinidad / Barbados.
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2673. BahaHurican
7:09 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
In fact looking at the archived 3-day cones, all day Wednesday Port Charlotte harbour was under the gun. In hindsight, anybody in that area should have been suspicious. But who knew?

I also wonder if the models in their current 07 manifestation, with the kind of data input they are receiving now, would have jumped north the way they did three years ago.

Experience is a harsh teacher, but often an effective one.
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2672. TampaSpin
7:14 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: zoomiami at 7:14 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Baha & SoFl: in Miami they were still saying on the radio that it was going to Tampa - I was in the dentist office & one of the women was on the phone with her daughter on the west coast who was hysterical - they were not expecting it at all. That is one of the reasons why Max Mayfield made it his mantra to say "don't follow the black line"

Lived in Pt. Charlotte when Charlie hit and this is true. Yes that area was barely in the cone, but the people was totally unpaired because the local (Ft. Myers) station did not put out the real possibilty to the people.
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2671. OUSHAWN
11:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
JP,

Looks like 94L is already trying to pull some of the land moisture into the center of its circulation. Who knows...maybe I wrote this thing off too soon...of course I thought it had been over water for most of the day so I've been way off...lol.

Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
2670. nrtiwlnvragn
11:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
The NHC website has the option to turn off "the skinny black line" but defaults to it being on. They should reverse that.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
2668. mississippiwx23
11:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I noticed a slight trirl just off the nw yuc as well. Still pretty much exposed.
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2666. zoomiami
11:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
In certain areas you need to watch it until it is past you - sometimes they make crazy turns!!! Another storm they said was going up the west coast of fl, went to bed, woke up with it on top of us. At least it wasn't a bad storm, but we weren't even IN the cone on that one.
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2665. Weather456
7:02 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Satellite imagery indicate that tonight's quikscat may reveal a nicely define circulation associated with 96L. Outflow is growing in almost all quadrants due an upper level high over the system, despite a wane in convection but this is typical of developing systems. I have observed that 96L matches the organization of both pre-Dean and pre-Felix, and no other invest this year...even the current ones is near the organization of 96L.


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2664. presslord
7:15 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
extreme...I'm pretty sure they have a product almost identical to what you describe
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2661. extreme236
11:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think instead of using a black line in the cone, they should use a probability cone, showing different colors in the cone that represent which areas seem to have the highest risk
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2660. zoomiami
11:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Baha & SoFl: in Miami they were still saying on the radio that it was going to Tampa - I was in the dentist office & one of the women was on the phone with her daughter on the west coast who was hysterical - they were not expecting it at all. That is one of the reasons why Max Mayfield made it his mantra to say "don't follow the black line"
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2659. woodlandstx
11:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
A few more sat images of 94L and things will get real interesting, at least on this blog. lol
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2658. pam971
23:11 GMT le 23 septembre 2007
Hi everybody,
i m French and live in Guadeloupe,
do you think 96l could be a threat for us?
thanks
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2656. extreme236
11:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Glennydrive at 11:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

What is the difference in a subtropical and tropical storm. Thanks for all the great info I get here. Keep the Faith moe


subtropical systems have broader wind fields and are less symetrical, while tropical systems are more consolidated (less broad) and more symetrical
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2655. islagal
11:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It's cold here in the Yuc today..
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2654. TampaSpin
7:08 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
94l i you look real close the coc may be in the Gulf just off the north tip and you can see some increase in convection where the coc is..
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2653. SaymoBEEL
11:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
P'colaDoug, I heard it here first. Maybe TWC is getting some pointers here.
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2652. Glennydrive
10:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What is the difference in a subtropical and tropical storm. Thanks for all the great info I get here. Keep the Faith moe
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2651. CanePredictor
11:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
My predictions....94L could possibly be a depression tomorrow after the Recon reports back to its base. 97L on the other hand WILL be a Tropical Storm...Which would make it Karen if not Florenzo (depending on if 96L reaches TS status)
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2650. BahaHurican
7:01 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Sfloridacat5 at 6:41 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Hurricane Charley taught me watch the weather and make predictions outside the view point of the "professionals."
On that Friday morning the "professional" were telling us the storm would go by us 100+ miles off shore.
At 2pm in the afternoon the wind was blowing 110+ mph and the roof was blown off our business.


This post made me curious, so I took a look at NHC's forecast archive for Charley. Turns out the Punta Gorda area was in the white cone every forecast after the Wednesday before the storm hit FL. The problem was, the TV mets in particular, but much of the public, really focused attention on that black line, which, mind u, did at one time indicate the Punta Gorda area as the landfall point. I guess this is why Max Mayfield and the NHC in general started emphasising that the landfall could take place anywhere in the cone. It's a pity most of us have to learn the hard way, instead of really reading and paying attention.

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2649. pottery2
6:57 PM AST on September 23, 2007
When I flew in/out of Barbados last Saturday, there were 2 HH aircraft parked there. Ingrid was approaching. But I have never seen 2 HH aircraft around here at one time, before that.
Maybe one of them is here in Trinidad now. I'll find out.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.