TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1399. ladyluck276
7:20 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Adrian, is that 96L?
1398. extreme236
11:19 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 11:19 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

not the record for the furthest east...but for the furthest south


thats what im thinking...its at 6.2N right now
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1397. hurricane23
7:13 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
This system is well on its way on becomeing a TD...

ggg
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13683
1396. ladyluck276
7:19 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
not the record for the furthest east...but for the furthest south
1395. Bobbyweather
7:17 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
96L did not break the record because a storm formed in Africa.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
1394. ladyluck276
7:17 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I think 96L will become Karen and she will be like her big sister two years ago just forming much further southeast
1393. denseypr
11:17 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
hey guys, I'm from Puerto Rico...

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231107
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
707 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2007

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TO THE LOCAL AREA IS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
53 WEST WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO LOCAL REGION.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DID PICK UP ALONG THE WAVE OVERNIGHT AND
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BELIEVES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES

What do you think?
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1392. ladyluck276
7:13 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
96L could possibly be the furthest tropical cyclone on record,
1391. extreme236
11:15 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
SAB dvorak intensity numbers:

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1390. Bobbyweather
7:14 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
the answer is Lorenzo, right?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
1389. mit5000
11:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 11:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

within 1 hour we should be getting some more dvorak ratings...


can you give me a link to them?
1388. mit5000
11:13 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 11:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Will 96L or 97L Become Karen?


yeh and either 96l or 97l will become l______

fill in the lines
1387. extreme236
11:12 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
within 1 hour we should be getting some more dvorak ratings...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1386. ladyluck276
7:12 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Will 96L or 97L Become Karen?
1385. KoritheMan
11:11 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
hasnt any 1 told you, anything is possible?

Ignore him, dude. He's just trying to get a rise out of people. Anyone who says this season is a bust, and provides no proof for what they say, ignore them.
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1384. mit5000
11:11 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: KoritheMan at 11:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I wouldn't expect Jerry to be subtropical, except maybe at the next advisory. But satellite images are showing that it is indeed becoming tropical, and fast. I think this will be a tropical storm, but 40-45 mph winds is probably all we'll see. Still, a rather vigorous extratropical system is in store for the United Kingdom, most likely.


jerry dont come to the u.k please!

tht just not fair

we dont want cyclones
1383. Tazmanian
4:10 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
i said this be for i went to bed last night and good call too and i was right


we sould have 96L and 97L on sunday and one new name storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
1382. extreme236
11:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: mit5000 at 11:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

im bored of sub tropical cyclones......... they should instanatly give t.ds and stds names!


subs are cool...they can form anywhere and they look cool
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1381. mit5000
11:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 11:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Good morning! I see that we have STD 11... NHC says it will become Tropical Storm Jerry. The Activeness of hurricanes is over. LOL


hasnt any 1 told you, anything is possible?
1380. extreme236
11:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
TWD special features...a few of them:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS UPGRADED AT 23/0900 UTC AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 36.2N 46.1W OR ABOUT 920 NM W OF THE AZORES AT
23/0900 UTC AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. ELEVEN CURRENTLY
DOES NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BUT WITH THE
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND IT COULD BECOME TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY. T.D. ELEVEN HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE TRAPPED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE N AND WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER AND COVERING AN AREA FROM 34N-40N BETWEEN
40W-51W.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW IS
ABOUT 600 NM SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6N27W. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER A LARGE
AREA FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 22W-31W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 51W-54W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 10N TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 52W-59W. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1379. KoritheMan
11:09 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I wouldn't expect Jerry to be subtropical, except maybe at the next advisory. But satellite images are showing that it is indeed becoming tropical, and fast. I think this will be a tropical storm, but 40-45 mph winds is probably all we'll see. Still, a rather vigorous extratropical system is in store for the United Kingdom, most likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1378. ladyluck276
7:09 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
yeah it'll have to wait until it's completely out of the METEOSAT-8 zone
1377. mit5000
11:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
im bored of sub tropical cyclones......... they should instanatly give t.ds and stds names!
1376. extreme236
11:09 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well, it still looks subtropical on visible images, so I guess they will keep in subtropical for a bit longer
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1375. hurricane23
7:08 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Just placed an email to SSD so we could get some floaters up for these 2 invest.The one of africa will have to wait till it gets futher west.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13683
1374. Weather456
7:07 AM AST on September 23, 2007
STD 11

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1373. ladyluck276
7:07 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I don't think Jerry will be a hurricane..then again it could be an Epsilon lol
1372. extreme236
11:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
well, I expect STD11 to become jerry, potentially at the next advisory...just dont know if it wil be tropical or not
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1371. extreme236
11:07 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L is very impressive looking on visible images, compared to when it looked like yesterday morning...tells you 24 hours can change everything
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1370. KoritheMan
11:06 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Taz: You are right. Arlene and Alberto survived hostile wind shear, and nearly became hurricanes.

Weather456: I know, it's amazing. Looks very similar to how Ingrid did when it was a tropical storm by that image. Definitely think this will be Jerry.
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1369. Bobbyweather
7:06 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Good morning! I see that we have STD 11... NHC says it will become Tropical Storm Jerry. The Activeness of hurricanes is over. LOL
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
1368. Weather456
7:06 AM AST on September 23, 2007
97L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1367. extreme236
11:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Oh and, there is invest 94a in the indian ocean
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1366. ladyluck276
7:04 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
It's basically a huge Tropical Upper-level Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) extending from the Central gulf down into the Carribean and back up all the way into where Jerry is.
1365. Weather456
7:05 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Impressive structure for an invest

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1364. extreme236
11:04 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
i know the models arent reliable right now, especially those...i was just interested in where they take it
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1363. Weather456
7:03 AM AST on September 23, 2007
96L looking good

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1362. Weather456
7:01 AM AST on September 23, 2007
The forecast calls for the ridge to weaken over 97L in 72 hrs but if it does retain that ridge it might not be an ingrid storm.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1361. KoritheMan
11:02 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Unreliable in the INVEST stage, mind you.
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1360. Tazmanian
4:00 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
whats see how strong 97L gets by time it gets there some time strong storm can overe take the high wind shear if the wind shear is not too strong
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
1359. KoritheMan
11:01 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Don't forget that models are unreliable, sometimes even when a system is a depression. But generally, once a depression forms, they get better.
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1358. extreme236
11:01 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
thanks for info 456, so 97L will have time to become a named storm, but after that, shear increases...nice info 456
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1357. Weather456
6:57 AM AST on September 23, 2007
1356. extreme236
10:59 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 10:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

wrong, it is much further south than Ingrid and in the Caribbean the conditions aren't quite as unfavorable.


It is farther south, but still, the shear will inhibit strengthening, and the early models want to take it into the worst sheared part
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1355. KoritheMan
10:55 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Because if 97L doesnt get an anticyclone on it soon enough, its going to be like ingrid

Or worse. Last night, I saw an upper-level low in the Carribean on water vapor imagery, or my eyes were playing tricks on me. That's probably what is producing the shear.
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1354. ladyluck276
6:55 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
wrong, it is much further south than Ingrid and in the Caribbean the conditions aren't quite as unfavorable.
1353. extreme236
10:54 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Because if 97L doesnt get an anticyclone on it soon enough, its going to be like ingrid
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1352. Tazmanian
3:49 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
ok 456
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
1351. extreme236
10:52 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey 456, do any forecasts call for an anticyclone to develop over 97L? Because I see a hostile enviroment ahead of it when it gets in the caribbean
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1350. ladyluck276
6:51 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
oops...I mean 96L Karen and 97L will be Lorenzo
1349. ladyluck276
6:49 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I think 96L will become Chantal

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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