TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1449. icepilot
6:53 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
I can hear the NHC phone call now:
Honey, that was the office, I have to go in..
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1448. extreme236
11:56 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I heard La Nina can make the peak come later, and could this be it? lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1447. Weather456
7:55 AM AST on September 23, 2007
VIS Image on new floater

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1446. stormybil
11:54 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
they said we will have late ACTIVE season this year due to the lanina bulding in late this just proves it more to come too
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1445. hurricane23
7:54 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Visible view along with RGB view of 97L.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
1444. extreme236
11:52 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: TerraNova at 11:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Wow...if I recall correctly, the last time we had four systems active at once was in late August.


LOL, this is the most active we have been all season
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1443. Weather456
7:48 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Its autumn and u can see on this visible picture...the night/day line is exactly parallel to the lines of longitude suggesting equal days and equal nights all around the globe.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1442. extreme236
11:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
it looks like the low pressure with 94L is entering the GOM
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1441. hurricane23
7:51 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:50 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

They got my email floater now up on SSD for 96!

Thats 97L lol

LOL....Thanks its been a long night.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
1440. TerraNova
7:46 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Wow...if I recall correctly, the last time we had four systems active at once was in late August.

IMO I think we may have our next two named systems right in this image...Jerry will likely be taken by S-TD11; the two names after that are Karen and Lorenzo.

ssd
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1439. extreme236
11:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

They got my email floater now up on SSD for 96!


Thats 97L lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1438. icepilot
6:42 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Good Morning all
I think the secret is:
When it looks like it is quieting down (2 days ago) Watch Out, it will explode...lol
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1437. hurricane23
7:49 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
They got my email floater now up on SSD for 96!

FF
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
1436. extreme236
11:47 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
1145UTC dvorak should be coming out soon
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1435. hurricane23
7:46 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:44 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

HWRF model has been added to 97L approaching the northern islands.

I think that is the GFDL, not the HWRF

Thats absolutely correct...Iam a little tired from work.Thanks
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
1434. Bobbyweather
7:44 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
It's like last time. There was 94L, then 95L, then both 96L and 97L. And 94L became Felix.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
1433. extreme236
11:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

HWRF model has been added to 97L approaching the northern islands.


I think that is the GFDL, not the HWRF
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1431. stormybil
11:41 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
watch the high this week it will be very tricky on where these systems are going you can count on that at least 97l will be the a td first imo thats the one closest to the islands right now
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1430. Weather456
7:41 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1429. extreme236
11:42 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: mit5000 at 11:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

this will be intersting

now we have std11 some where else. will he have a new blog?


Im thinking he wil try to post a late afternoon blog
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1428. Weather456
7:38 AM AST on September 23, 2007
This week will be busy

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1427. mit5000
11:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters


this will be intersting

now we have std11 some where else. will he have a new blog?
1426. stormybil
11:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
97l is not on the wu page yet

any model runs for 97l yet ?
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1425. hurricane23
7:38 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
HWRF model has been added to 97L approaching the northern islands.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
1424. mit5000
11:37 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 11:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Yes 456, it seems 96L is on its way to becoming a TD...but I dont think it will at the next advisory


i do

and i think 97l might
1423. extreme236
11:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Now the wild card system (the one that may or may not develop) will be 94L
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1422. extreme236
11:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yes 456, it seems 96L is on its way to becoming a TD...but I dont think it will at the next advisory
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1421. mit5000
11:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 11:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

and they only have intermediate advisories when watches/warnings are up, so if 97L becomes a depression east of the antilles, we wil see intermediate advisories


hurry up 97l become a cyclone

let us watch noaa sweat!
1420. Weather456
7:35 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1419. MasterForecaster
11:31 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Man this place is dead.

Its 730 on a sunday...haha people are still sleeping. I should be sleeping now so i can have enough energy to cheer on my eagles later...we arent looking to good. =[
1418. extreme236
11:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
and they only have intermediate advisories when watches/warnings are up, so if 97L becomes a depression east of the antilles, we wil see intermediate advisories
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1416. mit5000
11:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 11:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I'd say the latter. Or maybe they're dreaming of Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo happening all at the same time lol


lol............

theyde be going - which 1 is which

1415. extreme236
11:32 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:31 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

yes they do count they be came tropical later on but it counts when they 1st be came STD or STS


But, the NHC doesnt count them as subtropical anymore once they become tropical, as the advisory archive shows...but, if you want to count how many storms started at subtropical status, you can do that
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1414. Tazmanian
4:27 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
yes they do count they be came tropical later on but it counts when they 1st be came STD or STS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
1413. Bobbyweather
7:30 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I wish every sub/tropical system had intermediate advisories.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
1412. ladyluck276
7:29 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I'd say the latter. Or maybe they're dreaming of Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo happening all at the same time lol
1411. extreme236
11:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: MasterForecaster at 11:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

thanks 456 and extreme i can always count on you to answer my questions no matter how dumb they are...


Your welcome...and if you have anymore questions about the dvorak numbers, just WU mail me or ask me here on the blog
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1410. extreme236
11:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 11:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Man this place is dead.


I guess everyone had to go to the bathroom or eat some breakfast lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1409. MasterForecaster
11:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
thanks 456 and extreme i can always count on you to answer my questions no matter how dumb they are...
1408. ladyluck276
7:28 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Man this place is dead.
1407. extreme236
11:23 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

subtropical depression 10
Subtropical Depression Eleven
Subtropical Storm Gabrielle
Subtropical Storm Andrea


whats the most Subtropical Storms in a season? is this the 1st time we evere seen 4 Subtropical Storm or STD in a season????


Even if there was a record, three of those wouldnt count...because they became tropical, so they arent considered subtropical
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1406. ladyluck276
7:23 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Isidore

Hurricane Isidore
1405. Weather456
7:23 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: MasterForecaster at 7:21 AM AST on September 23, 2007.
goodmorning everyone...

A few questions id like to ask and if people who actually know what their talking about could answer, that be great. =]

ok first of all...is 97l official or just suspected because its not on WU. Where is it?


97L at the Navy site
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1404. extreme236
11:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: MasterForecaster at 11:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

goodmorning everyone...

A few questions id like to ask and if people who actually know what their talking about could answer, that be great. =]

ok first of all...is 97l official or just suspected because its not on WU. Where is it?
Second...what are these DVORAK numbers i keep hearing about? what do they mean? and third...the way things are set up would any of these invests head towards Fl, or GA? I have family there...

thanks! =]


Ok, 97L is official, it is on the navy site, which lists the invests. Also, dvorak numbers are intensity estimates that show a cyclone or invests intensity based on satillite data. And right now, its hard to say where any of these disturbances are going

Navy Site: Link

Dvorak numbers: Link

What the dvorak numbers mean in terms of intensity:
Link
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1403. mit5000
11:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
loads of places for hurricanes:

500
new blog on this
1402. Tazmanian
4:14 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
subtropical depression 10
Subtropical Depression Eleven
Subtropical Storm Gabrielle
Subtropical Storm Andrea


whats the most Subtropical Storms in a season? is this the 1st time we evere seen 4 Subtropical Storm or STD in a season???? do we have a new record for the most Subtropical Storm or STD in a season?????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
1401. Bobbyweather
11:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
record is 7.2N by Hurricane Isidore.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
1400. MasterForecaster
11:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
goodmorning everyone...

A few questions id like to ask and if people who actually know what their talking about could answer, that be great. =]

ok first of all...is 97l official or just suspected because its not on WU. Where is it?
Second...what are these DVORAK numbers i keep hearing about? what do they mean? and third...the way things are set up would any of these invests head towards Fl, or GA? I have family there...

thanks! =]
1399. ladyluck276
11:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Adrian, is that 96L?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.