TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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11L is a new cyclone - need to wait for 1st noaa advisory.
Tracks 97
i really dont know when td 10 will come back out
what if std 11 dont move?
Hello all...where is 97L at?
near some islands
Hello all...where is 97L at?
Last night was cool, but today will probably be another blisterer as these systems pack up their force. Whenever a serious system is brewing this happens.
And this thing coming from Cape Verde is so darn low, which spells trouble unless it steers far North for some reaosn.
Anyone have a link to steering models and intensity yet?
Please?
all of yesterday i stressed on the deveoping tropical wave east of the windward islands. all the emphasis was on anarea in the far eastern south atlantic. the CALT is about 500miles away from the islands and nearing TD/TS stage. My position on this sytem it will be a TD today. Warning and watches will be needed for some of the central windward iclands today.
This is on Floater 2, just east of the Lesser Antilles.
you are so right. have you looked to the east of barbados. this system is a precursor of thigs to come
Probably a storm, could it possibly reach CAT 1 by the time it gets to 59.4W longitude, whatever latitude, we are at 13.1N.
This season seems to be the season for precocious storms i.e. they develop so quickly, almost out of the blue.
will be watching this one
Wow, they named this quickly; reminds me of how they handled Dean.
It does not bode well for it to be strong so early. This may be the season 'monster'.
Busy, Busy Busy Tropics today....get ur seat belts....
97L
1007 mb
25 knots
SLU Where are you these days. there is something at our door steps during the next 48hrs. maybe a strong TS or cat1
*YAWN* yeah thanks for waking me out of bed.
BOY!! I expected that to happen when the GFS began to go nuts a feew days ago. Looks like we're in for some August 1995 - like action.
Threat # 1 is invest 97L. The SST's between it and the Islands are between 84F and 86F. VERY WARM! 1 - 2 degrees warmer than normal so lookout.
Threat # 2 is the Cape Verde wave which I think will become a classical Cape Verde type tropical cyclone which is unusually far south (6.2n 26.1w) and may come west as high pressure builds across the Atlantic.
Threat # 3 is invest 94L. The center is still over land so it might be the last of the 3 to develop. I think is will become a cyclone once it goes over water again.
Threat # 4 is Subtropical depression #11. Its far from land so it will get the least attention. Plus, i'm not a big fan of hybrid and subtropical cyclones.
what you all think about 97L where do you think its going 236 and 456?
Let me check the models and the steering and then I will tell you where I think it will go...brb
what you all think about 97L where do you think its going 236 and 456?
This one is going west to west-northwest into the Caribbean. It will affect the nearby islands but it is uncertain whether is will affect the NW Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba, Yucatan) or the enter the Gulf. A large high is over the SE US right now. So its uncertain...let me check something and get back to you on the latter part.
i think 97L will be more of a gulf storm
and 96L be more of a FL/gulf storm
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