TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1499. SaymoBEEL
12:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Here is my favorite "big picture" WV loop.

Link
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1498. extreme236
12:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 12:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

when are the new T # comeing out ?


Soon
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1497. extreme236
12:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 12:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

R.I.P. 96L


lol, just joking right?
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1496. Tazmanian
5:23 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
when are the new T # comeing out ?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114765
1495. ladyluck276
8:21 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
R.I.P. 96L
1494. extreme236
12:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 12:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

interesting the XTRP model actually has 95L going west rather than northeast into Greenland or the UK.


XTRP just shows where something would go if it continued its current direction and went in a straight line
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1493. TampaSpin
8:19 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Wow go to bed and everything happens......why didnt someone do a wakeup call...97L looks very impressive.
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1492. hurricane23
8:17 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
If thats not enough you might try this site by mike watson.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13636
1491. ladyluck276
8:19 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
interesting the XTRP model actually has 95L going west rather than northeast into Greenland or the UK.
1490. zoomiami
12:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
you guys amaze me - my brains are having a hard time keeping up with the comments - never mind having an original thought ::}
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1489. SaymoBEEL
12:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Zoo, It's 5 oclock somewhere. Sorry I couldn't resist.
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1488. Tazmanian
5:17 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
yes its 5:17am
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1487. SaymoBEEL
12:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks 23! Psuedo TD10 had everyone excited for a little while here. Our school had to cover windows and computers (Mobile county). 94L looks like it has more of a chance than 10.
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1486. zoomiami
12:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
taz - isn't it like 5:00 am where u are?
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1485. hurricane23
8:15 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Even more models at Colorado State's Model site.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13636
1484. stormybil
12:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
thanks hur 23
1483. ladyluck276
8:12 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
96L is going to be karen
1482. hurricane23
8:11 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormybil at 8:10 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

whats up no models here
fron the swfd page

Error 30584: DBMS_SQL has raised an unhandled exception. ORA-06502: PL/SQL: numeric or value error: character string buffer too small

Models for 97L HERE and models for 96L HERE
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1481. Tazmanian
5:09 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
the nexts name storm up in line will be Jerry Karen Lorenzo and Melissa

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1480. RoughSeas
7:08 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
97L is in the sweet spot.
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1479. extreme236
12:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Chicklit at 12:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

What's confusing is they named the farther system an Invest before naming the one that's closer to the Antilles island chain.


Because the north atlantic one developed into a cyclone before 97L...97l is now looking more organized though
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1478. stormybil
12:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
whats up no models here
fron the swfd page

Error 30584: DBMS_SQL has raised an unhandled exception. ORA-06502: PL/SQL: numeric or value error: character string buffer too small












1477. hurricane23
8:09 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: SaymoBEEL at 8:08 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

What is the consensus here for 94L developing? Looks like central GOM states will be wet for a few days at least.

Not really expecting anything to significant from that mess though a weak TS is not out of the question.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13636
1476. icepilot
7:06 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Very concise TNova. we are all an the same page lol. Thats the starting point for today - And I though I would be able to get some outside work done here - now I'll be in front of the computer all day- damm
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1475. Chicklit
12:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What's confusing is they named the farther system an Invest before naming the one that's closer to the Antilles island chain.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11186
1474. SaymoBEEL
12:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What is the consensus here for 94L developing? Looks like central GOM states will be wet for a few days at least.
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1473. Thundercloud01221991
12:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: TerraNova at 12:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

LOL... Just to clarify

94L - Now entering the Gulf after crossing the Yucatan.

95L/11L - developed last night into a subtropical depression.

96L - The easternmost system that is located 600 miles south of the Cape Verde islands.

97L - That multiple-wave system east of the Antilles that has now consolidated into a 1009 millibar low. Located just west of 52W.


correct
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1472. stormybil
12:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
anyone think we could see a cat 3 in the atlantic after any of these developes which one is you favorite to orm right now
1471. extreme236
12:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L doesnt have a dvorak rating yet because it wasnt declared too long ago, so wait for the 1145 UTC dvorak for a classification
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1470. TerraNova
8:03 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
LOL... Just to clarify

94L - Now entering the Gulf after crossing the Yucatan.

95L/11L - developed last night into a subtropical depression.

96L - The easternmost system that is located 600 miles south of the Cape Verde islands.

97L - That multiple-wave system east of the Antilles that has now consolidated into a 1009 millibar low. Located just west of 52W.

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1469. aubiesgirl
7:04 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
ok so I know that it is way to early to tell...but is tere any chance 97L could get into the gulf? would that high over the middle of the us...keep it way?
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1468. SarahBarbados
12:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thank you icepilot
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1467. icepilot
7:03 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Barbados - 97L - in about 2 days by the models
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1466. SarahBarbados
12:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thank You TerraNova
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1465. WPBHurricane05
8:02 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
hi WPBHurricane05, yep that's what happens, turn your back and they explode on you! can anyone tell me WHO gives the t numbers and when they "deserve" a t number?? or did 97 HAVE one and then lose it - although i don't see i t listed on prior times thanx jo

The "t number" is a satellite estimate. I'm assuming that the SSD takes that information and they post it here.
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1464. Thundercloud01221991
12:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormybil at 12:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

WPBHurricane05 at 12:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I hope 97L doesn't pull a Felix.


it could be a atlantic felix though

Felix was in the atlantic
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1463. stormybil
12:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
WPBHurricane05 at 12:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I hope 97L doesn't pull a Felix.


it could be a atlantic felix though
1462. hurricane23
8:02 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormybil at 8:01 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

hey 23 thats 96l lol

97l is the one closest to the islands right now.

Thats what i posted...
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1461. extreme236
12:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 12:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I hope 97L doesn't pull a Felix.


Hopefully not...shear should only be low enough for it for 72hrs, then its supposed to become higher, but it the ridge doesnt weaken, then shear will remain favorable
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1460. TerraNova
7:59 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Anyone have an idea when 97L will be affecting the Caribbean. Will Barbados get any of the action would love some rain

Rain could begin to reach the islands as early as tommorow; depending on how quickly this gets organized. Most of the early track models have this going just to the north of Barbados then near Martinique, but the track may and probably will shift as more information comes in for the track guidance to feast on.
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1459. Thundercloud01221991
12:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
gm everyone what an active day may go through 50 pages today
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1458. Tazmanian
4:59 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
if 97L can keep this up i think we will see a new TD from it later today ans same gos for
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114765
1457. stormybil
12:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
hey 23 thats 96l lol

97l is the one closest to the islands right now
1456. WPBHurricane05
7:59 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I hope 97L doesn't pull a Felix.
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1455. hurricane23
8:00 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Here's one more view of the GFDL model for 96L...

gg
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13636
1453. stormybil
11:57 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
is 97l going to track wnw for awhile
what you think
1452. SarahBarbados
11:54 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Anyone have an idea when 97L will be affecting the Caribbean. Will Barbados get any of the action would love some rain
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1451. extreme236
11:57 AM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:57 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I spend a few days away from the blog and there were 2 Sub-Tropical Depressions, and 3 invests!


Well, one of those subtropical depressions eventually became tropical, although never got named
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1450. WPBHurricane05
7:55 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I spend a few days away from the blog and there were 2 Sub-Tropical Depressions, and 3 invests!
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1449. icepilot
6:53 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
I can hear the NHC phone call now:
Honey, that was the office, I have to go in..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.