TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1549. Caymanite
1:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning all. Looks like NFL will be interupted frequently today to check on the many systems developing in the Atl. LOL
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1548. TampaSpin
9:04 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:03 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Tropical Storm 11L
which when got upgraded....lmao
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1547. FLWeatherFreak91
1:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Kudos too whoever said there was going to be 4 systems to watch by this morning! :)
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1545. extreme236
1:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Current overview of the Atlantic:

94L is emerging into the GOM and will be monitored closely

95L became STD11 this morning, and appears to be going to get ugraded into a STS/TS at 11am

96L is the Cape Verde wave that is slowly organizing and may become a depression soon

97L also continues to organize and may become a depression soon as well
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1544. Sfloridacat5
1:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I like 97l chances. It looks pretty well organized.
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1543. Drakoen
1:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
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1541. Drakoen
12:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L taking a peak out in the CATL view.
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1540. TampaSpin
8:58 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Just looked on the Navy site 97L has 30Kt on the far right side from windsat.
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1539. hurricane23
8:58 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
And you can always feel free to use my website for other models and links.
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1538. extreme236
12:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 12:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

no T # yet for 97L whats up with that?


Well, SSD site may not show it yet, maybe in a few minutes, as you can see, some of the recent dvoraks are out of order so the site is a little messed up
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1537. SLU
12:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
920
WHXX01 KWBC 231239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE ELEVEN (AL112007) 20070923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.0N 46.3W 37.0N 45.9W 38.8N 44.2W 41.6N 40.7W
BAMD 36.0N 46.3W 37.8N 45.6W 40.3N 43.8W 44.3N 40.5W
BAMM 36.0N 46.3W 37.4N 45.8W 39.3N 44.2W 42.4N 40.6W
LBAR 36.0N 46.3W 37.1N 45.3W 38.9N 43.6W 41.0N 40.6W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1200 070926 1200 070927 1200 070928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 45.8N 37.0W 55.5N 32.5W 62.8N 27.7W 67.1N 23.6W
BAMD 50.1N 38.5W 60.8N 39.7W 66.4N 39.0W 69.1N 36.0W
BAMM 47.4N 37.2W 58.9N 34.5W 66.4N 32.1W 70.1N 27.9W
LBAR 45.7N 36.5W 56.5N 22.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 69KTS 66KTS 59KTS
DSHP 62KTS 69KTS 66KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.0N LONCUR = 46.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 36.2N LONM12 = 46.1W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 35.9N LONM24 = 45.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN


707
WHXX01 KWBC 231245
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 55.0W 12.2N 57.3W 13.3N 59.8W 14.6N 62.0W
BAMD 11.4N 55.0W 12.1N 56.9W 12.7N 58.7W 13.6N 60.6W
BAMM 11.4N 55.0W 12.0N 57.3W 12.8N 59.6W 13.9N 61.8W
LBAR 11.4N 55.0W 12.1N 56.9W 13.1N 58.8W 14.3N 60.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1200 070926 1200 070927 1200 070928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 64.3W 17.8N 68.5W 18.8N 72.9W 19.5N 77.4W
BAMD 14.3N 62.5W 15.5N 66.3W 16.1N 69.9W 16.7N 73.4W
BAMM 15.2N 64.0W 16.9N 68.2W 17.7N 72.8W 18.5N 77.5W
LBAR 15.4N 62.9W 16.6N 67.0W 17.1N 71.4W 17.3N 75.0W
SHIP 47KTS 59KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 47KTS 59KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 52.4W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 50.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


958
WHXX01 KWBC 231249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.4N 28.0W 7.1N 29.9W 8.0N 32.3W 8.9N 34.7W
BAMD 6.4N 28.0W 6.9N 30.0W 7.6N 32.2W 8.6N 34.2W
BAMM 6.4N 28.0W 7.2N 30.2W 8.1N 32.7W 9.1N 35.1W
LBAR 6.4N 28.0W 7.2N 30.9W 8.1N 34.2W 9.3N 37.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1200 070926 1200 070927 1200 070928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 37.4W 11.3N 42.7W 13.7N 48.5W 16.6N 53.2W
BAMD 9.2N 36.2W 10.4N 40.4W 12.0N 44.3W 14.1N 47.2W
BAMM 9.7N 37.6W 10.7N 42.7W 12.4N 47.6W 15.2N 50.5W
LBAR 10.3N 40.5W 12.0N 46.0W 14.7N 49.9W 17.5N 54.8W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 83KTS 83KTS
DSHP 59KTS 75KTS 83KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.4N LONCUR = 28.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 6.2N LONM12 = 24.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 6.0N LONM24 = 19.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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1535. sporteguy03
12:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Taz,
Can you help update Dr.M's blog with all the invests?
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1534. hurricane23
8:57 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Here is the link again to were you can get all the model imput on storms.updates every six hours EDT.
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1533. Drakoen
12:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It just watched the tropical update on the weather channel and Dr.Lyons says 97L will move into the Caribbean but then make a turn toward to northwest possible affecting Puerto Rico. Everyone should monitor the situation.
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1532. Bobbyweather
8:56 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I think 94L is Dean, except much weaker.
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1531. extreme236
12:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
ST2.5/2.5 11L -- Atlantic Ocean
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1530. leftovers
12:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97 might mean business. This aint no naked swirl. It does not seem to be in a hurry. Could this be our third Carib monster?
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1529. extreme236
12:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thank you H23 and Taz for those links
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1528. Sfloridacat5
12:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Does look like the next couple weeks are going to be active.
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1527. sporteguy03
12:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Maybe Dr.M can create seperate blogs for each invest or system?
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1526. extreme236
12:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormyjm at 12:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Experts, question from a non-expert.. Which invests do you feel have a threat to the U.S. and where? Just your humble opinions please.


Its too early to tell with 96 and 97L, but, with 94L, that could affect the US, but it may or may not develop
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1525. hurricane23
8:51 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
extreme236 you can get those HERE.

The latest on both files will be located at the bottom.About every 4 hours EDT.
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1523. stormyjm
12:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Experts, question from a non-expert.. Which invests do you feel have a threat to the U.S. and where? Just your humble opinions please.
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1522. extreme236
12:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
hey taz can you give me a link of where you found that? I've been wanting to know where those are
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1521. extreme236
12:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean
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1519. hurricane23
8:40 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Here are a couple of good pages on the 1938 hurricane.

1-The long island express
2-The Hurricane of 38
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1518. icepilot
7:41 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
TNova - tsk tsk and that's after you did such a nice summary this am
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1517. TerraNova
8:42 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
96L is the one out by Cape Verde, he got it right

LOL I got confused again. Ya thats 96L.
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1516. aspectre
12:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Weird season of storms that refuse to die.
First Erin low-speed"hurricane"s OklahomaCity, then Ingrid keeps going and going and going...
And now if what-was-TD10 continues its rate of recurving southward, it'll go back into the Gulf of Mexico somewhere between CalcaseiuLake,Louisiana and SabineLake on the Texas border by Monday morning.
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1515. ladyluck276
8:41 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Nope philles, the Bermuda ridge is too far west and stronger
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1514. Drakoen
12:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L. Pressure at 1007mb 25kt winds.
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1513. extreme236
12:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: TerraNova at 12:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Could 96L do this?

LOL that's 97L...does anybody have a link to a surface map from that time?


96L is the one out by Cape Verde, he got it right
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1512. TerraNova
8:37 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Could 96L do this?

LOL that's 97L...does anybody have a link to a surface map from that time?
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1511. philliesrock
8:35 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Could 96L do this?



Too early to tell.
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1510. InTheCone
12:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow!! Everybody said we were going to have some invests - but this is just crazy!!! So many #'s, so little time!!

94 & 97 look to be of the most interest to the U.S. ???
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1509. Miamiweather
12:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
This is in my observation only but to me it seems that 97L in the last couple of frames is loosing most of its deep convection any thoughts?
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1508. Drakoen
12:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I see 96L and 97L has formed no suprise there.
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1507. Thundercloud01221991
12:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
it got quiet all of a sudden
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1506. TampaSpin
8:26 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
it looks like a fright TRain with 97L as the engine.....
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1505. ladyluck276
8:28 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
So now every basin has at least something? That's cool...
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1504. Bobbyweather
8:27 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
TD in the Arabian Sea... 94A now has a T# of 2.0
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1502. philliesrock
8:25 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
HWRF for STD 11 is out.
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1501. ladyluck276
8:25 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Not joking, just referring to something everyone said about it on July 4th.
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1500. Miamiweather
12:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey 23 don't you think that 97L is pretty far south at this point to not enter into the carribean?
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1499. SaymoBEEL
12:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Here is my favorite "big picture" WV loop.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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