TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1599. Patrap
8:31 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
LOL Odog..THey just about got whooped by Ole Miss. Thats not the GAtors from Last year..by a long shot.
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1598. TerraNova
9:31 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Good morning SJ.
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1597. Oreodog
8:29 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
How do you spell the name of Florida's football team? OVERRATED.

Now to weather -- 94 seems to be setting up very similar to Erin.
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1596. Miamiweather
1:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L looks stronger than 97L any thoughts
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1595. Patrap
8:30 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Morning Odog...hows ya been over dere.?
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1594. Drakoen
1:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Both have good low level vorticity though 96L is more defined.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
1593. mit5000
1:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: leftovers at 12:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

97 might mean business. This aint no naked swirl. It does not seem to be in a hurry. Could this be our third Carib monster?


or our 2nd carrib flop (ingrid was 1st)
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1592. Patrap
8:29 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
The disturbance should be monitored for slow development.Thats about all In can offer
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1591. Oreodog
8:28 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
How about an Oreodog? Morning Pat.
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1590. Drakoen
1:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning SJ.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
1589. TampaSpin
9:28 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 9:27 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Were one Clem Dog short...

Those look like LSU tigers to the GATORS.......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1588. StormJunkie
1:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Ahh ya, good call pat. Clem an da boys will certainly keep us all safe :~)
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1587. SaymoBEEL
1:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Patrap, what do you make of the GOM?
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1586. Patrap
8:27 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Were one Clem Dog short...
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1585. Patrap
8:24 AM CDT on September 23, 2007

GOES-12 Low Cloud Product


Link
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1584. extreme236
1:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L is entering the Gulf, we will have to see what happens with it
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1583. sporteguy03
1:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks Jimbo for the updates...
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1582. StormJunkie
1:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning TN 236, Drak and all :~)

TN, good call on 96, QS does not show a closed low yet. May by tonight, but not yet. Also the highest uncontaminated wind are about 25kts from what I can tell?
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1581. extreme236
1:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Shear is decreasing in 97's vicinity, so that could help a bit
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1580. TampaSpin
9:20 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
we was all laughing at the CMC model, but lately its been performing very well in forcasting formation.
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1579. extreme236
1:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
it looks like 97L has become less organized, although its not over yet
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1578. extreme236
1:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
-
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1577. eye
1:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97 looks like it has run into some difficulty
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1576. StormJunkie
1:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning all :~)

What are we beating up the NHC for? I see we have 4 storms right now. 94L, TD11, 96l, & 97l.

They usually take a little more time with the CV long trackers then they do with areas closer to land. IMHO, that is not a big deal unless they are totally neglecting something that is going to rapidly intensify. Most ships running in that area of the world are usually well prepared for large storms, I would think.
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1575. weathersp
1:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good Idea High seas..

Good Morning Everyone!

Went to bed last night with 94L and 95L but I see that we have 2 more invests. Going to be a busy day today.

Dont feed the Trolls!
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1574. Patrap
8:20 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean


Link
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1573. eye
1:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
oh come on, two blogs? come on people, it isnt that hard!

2 of which will soon be gone
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1572. fldude99
1:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
osted By: wxguru1 at 1:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
It looks to me that the U.S. mainland is protected by the current and forecast pattern from any central atlantic or eastern caribbean systems.


I second that motion and agree with it. The GOM potential is about all to be concerned with til next summer
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1571. SaymoBEEL
1:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Patrap, It looks wet in the GOM
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1569. TampaSpin
9:12 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 9:11 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

It gets annoying when people say that the NHC shouldnt bother with systems that dont effect any land...the point is that the atlantic is more than the areas that effect land, it includes ALL of area and its there job

Every year lives are lost. Vessels sink by those some call non-important storms...NHC saves lives that is why they must..
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1568. Patrap
8:13 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
5
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1567. Drakoen
1:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 1:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

It gets annoying when people say that the NHC shouldnt bother with systems that dont effect any land...the point is that the atlantic is more than the areas that effect land, it includes ALL of area and its there job


yes.
I didn't have the patience to respond to that post.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
1566. icepilot
8:11 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Patrap - LOL - it's the new icon for this blog....
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
1565. extreme236
1:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yep, 11L is updated on the Navy site with 35kt winds/ pressure is 1004mb, although it does not have it listed as Jerry yet
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1564. jamnkats
1:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It looks like 94L is hitting us right now. Isn't it? We'r on the Yucatan peninsula, just across from Cozumel. If this is all the weather we'll get from 94L, we'll be fine. If not, where is 94L right now?
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1563. aubiesgirl
1:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
nice pic of stroms Drak
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1561. extreme236
1:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It gets annoying when people say that the NHC shouldnt bother with systems that dont effect any land...the point is that the atlantic is more than the areas that effect land, it includes ALL of area and its there job
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1560. Drakoen
1:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L and 97L
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1559. TerraNova
9:11 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
LOL Patrap.
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1558. TerraNova
9:08 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
96l looks huge on the CATL imagery. I think 97L is also capable of becoming a depression at any moment; although I'm looking at the QuickSCAT and it dosn't seem to have picked up a closed surface low..or has it?
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1557. Patrap
8:08 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico



Link
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1556. extreme236
1:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
and the point is, that the NHC's job is to monitor ALL tropical cyclones across the entire atlantic...11L is no different than many epac storms...the point is that its their job
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1555. extreme236
1:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: wxguru1 at 1:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Here are my 2 cents on all the systems... take it or leave it. 94L difficult to find any surface rotation presently and has major shear near and ahead of it. Looks like it will be moving too fast with too much shear to ever develop into much of anything. South TX or Mexico looks about right anyway. STD 11 is a waste of time and money by the NHC. Should be handed off to the Navy for their high seas forecast as that is all this will effect. (These are the types of systems if named were never bothered with more that 15-20 years ago yet make all the numbers look larger now.) 96L is a central atlantic storm if it makes it that far. 97L is the one to watch IMO, but has a lot to overcome. It looks to me that the U.S. mainland is protected by the current and forecast pattern from any central atlantic or eastern caribbean systems.


shear isnt too high for 94L, do you see that anticyclone lower shear? that is why the nhc says winds are favorable
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1554. Sfloridacat5
1:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Will there be anything to pull 97L up northf towards Florida? Or will it stay south like the previous systems?
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1553. FLWeatherFreak91
1:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Let's try to get at least two separate blogs, maybe two systems in each one...does someone have that capability bc it's really confusing trying to distinguish between the Storms
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1552. extreme236
1:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
but before I go, here is the updated models...HWRF and GFDL in good agreement for the most part

image
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1551. wxguru1
1:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Here are my 2 cents on all the systems... take it or leave it. 94L difficult to find any surface rotation presently and has major shear near and ahead of it. Looks like it will be moving too fast with too much shear to ever develop into much of anything. South TX or Mexico looks about right anyway. STD 11 is a waste of time and money by the NHC. Should be handed off to the Navy for their high seas forecast as that is all this will effect. (These are the types of systems if named were never bothered with more that 15-20 years ago yet make all the numbers look larger now.) 96L is a central atlantic storm if it makes it that far. 97L is the one to watch IMO, but has a lot to overcome. It looks to me that the U.S. mainland is protected by the current and forecast pattern from any central atlantic or eastern caribbean systems.
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1550. extreme236
1:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I will be back later
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1549. Caymanite
1:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning all. Looks like NFL will be interupted frequently today to check on the many systems developing in the Atl. LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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