TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1649. Drakoen
2:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: earthlydragonfly at 1:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Can anyone confirm there is a COC on 97I???


There is an area of low pressure but no defined center of circulation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
1648. mit5000
1:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: earthlydragonfly at 1:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Can anyone confirm there is a COC on 97I???


yeh- noaa!
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1647. CJ5
1:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning all. I am not suprised to see 96L or 97L this morning. Looks like we will have a lot to talk about this week. It will take me a while this am to study all of these. I'll be back later with all sorts of opinions...lol
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1646. StormJunkie
1:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
edf, as of this morning 97 looked to be an open wave according to the QS pass.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16607
1645. Weather456
9:55 AM AST on September 23, 2007
This could be TD 12/Karen in no time.....interesting...Katrina formed from Td 12 after Jose formed from TD 11.

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1644. mit5000
1:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i want a new advisory!
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1643. earthlydragonfly
9:58 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Can anyone confirm there is a COC on 97I???
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
1642. Drakoen
1:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Big massive blog trying to come into the CATL view.

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1641. Thunderground
1:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
AST is the same as EDT.
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1639. earthlydragonfly
9:55 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I just saw a flare up on the NW side of 97I
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1638. TampaSpin
9:45 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
94L
Link
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1637. Drakoen
1:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L is really getting its convective current going. Nice outflow with that upper level high.
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1636. Weather456
9:53 AM AST on September 23, 2007
STD11/Jerry

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1635. Weather456
9:51 AM AST on September 23, 2007
where's the model page?
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1634. LightningCharmer
1:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Clem is Mixed Breed, a Saffir-Simpson I think they are called.....LOL
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1633. melwerle
1:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow - you go to bed at night and nothing is out there and then wake up to this...

Morning everyone!
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1632. Drakoen
1:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: weathersp at 1:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen
quiet blog today with all these invest. The trolls must be out for breakfast...

I think they are all at church.. Heck I am at church. Guy is being baptised right below me..


LOL.
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1631. Patrap
8:49 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico

Link
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1630. Drakoen
1:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 1:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

went to chruch and back...wats going on...we have any names yet?


Subtropical storm Jerry has formed.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
1629. LightningCharmer
1:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: mit5000 at 1:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

where is every 1?

Hungover from watching this blog all night long?
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1628. extreme236
1:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 1:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

went to chruch and back...wats going on...we have any names yet?


On the computer model page for the nhc, we now have jerry
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1627. Weather456
9:48 AM AST on September 23, 2007
went to chruch and back...wats going on...we have any names yet?
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1626. extreme236
1:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
just because 97L doesnt look as good as it did this morning, doesnt mean that it is dying out lol...many invest go thru phases such as this
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1624. centex
1:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Here is my summary, don't think much diff than most of the bloggers.

TD 11 may become Jerry, Iím ignoring that system. 94L has limited time but need to watch Sun/Mon, 96L is most organized and we will have a long time to track that one. Not sure if 97L will develop or not.
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1623. mit5000
1:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
where is every 1?
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1622. Miamiweather
1:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L is still losing convection
1621. Drakoen
1:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
WV imagery
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1620. Drakoen
1:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
quiet blog today with all these invest. The trolls must be out for breakfast...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
1619. mit5000
1:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
sts0711 has winds up to 60kts in ssome places

id give this a 50kt estimate
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1618. mit5000
1:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.



we now have SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY


WE KNOW YOUVE TOLD US 10 TIMES OK
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1617. beell
1:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97l has a good chance to avoid any adverse conditions that climatology would suggest for a storm in this position at this time of year.
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1616. LightningCharmer
1:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
hey yall

what time is it ast?

GMT - 3, 'bout quarter of eleven in the morn'

Sorry that's ADT. AST is:

GMT - 4, 'bout quarter of ten in the morn'
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1615. Tazmanian
6:39 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
we now have SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
1614. Drakoen
1:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
1613. Patrap
8:39 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Clem is Mixed Breed, a Saffir-Simpson I think they are called.
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1612. mit5000
1:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
hey yall

what time is it ast?
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1611. salter
9:37 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Good Morning All, For those who said a busy later season this year looks like it will pan out Wow 4 invest!
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1610. sporteguy03
1:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Patrap,
What type of dog breed is a Clem? Is he a weather dog?
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1609. Drakoen
1:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Preliminary runs seem to be in good agreement have to wait and see what the more reliable computer models do.
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1608. F1or1d1an
1:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Mornin' all.

Looks like another day of blobbing for storms...
1607. Oreodog
8:34 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Pat, I gotta run. I'll visit more tonight. Geaux Saints!
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1604. Patrap
8:33 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Hard to say O-dog. Its in a good spot , but something looks to keep it in check.
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1603. Patrap
8:32 AM CDT on September 23, 2007

GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) False Color


Link
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1602. ajcamsmom
8:29 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Is there some way we can mark who is a meterologist and who is not? Also, can we mark who has been following the weather for years and who has not? There are a lot of us that come on this site for weather input only and I know I for one would like to know who I am getting it from. For me, I have only been following the weather since Katrina...Thank you very much.
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1601. Oreodog
8:31 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Good pat. Very dry. Won't 94 have to contend with some very dry air?
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1600. nrtiwlnvragn
1:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Jerry
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1599. Patrap
8:31 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
LOL Odog..THey just about got whooped by Ole Miss. Thats not the GAtors from Last year..by a long shot.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.