TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1699. LightningCharmer
2:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
In a few more hours we should get a full view of the CV wave. Maybe get a floater on it later tonight, early tomorrow

EUMETSAT SECTOR 4
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1698. extreme236
2:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I guess 96L wants to break records
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1697. Patrap
9:25 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Moisture/T-storms streaming towards the Northern Gulf Coast from the tropical fetch below

Link
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1696. Weather456
10:23 AM AST on September 23, 2007
very well organize



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1695. hurricane23
10:23 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Just a tad more organization with 96L and a TD is a good bet.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
1694. extreme236
2:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Isnt it hard for some cyclones to develop at such low latitudes... I believe 96L will develop but the center is at 6.4N right now...it seems to be slowly rising though
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1693. NorthxCakalaky
2:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I would say the best shot at being a TD as i said earlier today is the system of the african coast.

I agree.


I agree too. looks presistent.
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1692. OUSHAWN
2:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Actually, I'm not putting much stock in 94L. If the conditions aloft were ideal and it was moving slower and had more time over the GOM than I would think it could develop. I also don't see us having a big rain event here in SE Texas...I think most of the rain will be to the east of us. Besides, the NHC is the only one I see that says it has the conditions to develop and I think they may be changing that very soon.

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1691. NorthxCakalaky
2:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
First day of Fall
Here : Forcast High 92 Average High 79

global warming !!!
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1690. Drakoen
2:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I would say the best shot at being a TD as i said earlier today is the system of the african coast.


I agree.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1689. Patrap
9:19 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Visible Loop, 94L..Notice the Day/night terminator completely vertical as Autumn begins
Link

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1688. hurricane23
10:18 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I would say the best shot at being a TD as i said earlier today is the system of the african coast.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
1687. icepilot
9:14 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ajcamsmom at 9:11 AM CDT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:03 AM CDT on September 23, 2007.

Thanks edf :~)

Designed by hobbyists for hobbyists.

Thanks to all hobbyists that do such fine work...very good information...one stop shop


Ditto. Hobbyists advance the worlds knowledge more than most think - I not mistaken Ham radio operators bounced the first radio signals off the moon - long before Sats were up.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
1686. Stoopid1
2:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
These 3 invests all could easily become our next 3 named storms. The only one I would give a low chance is 94, but we know how these storms act when they hit that hottub called the GOM, so who knows? 13 named storms before September doesn't seem so farfetched now.
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1685. Drakoen
2:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
In a few more hours we should get a full view of the CV wave. Maybe get a floater on it later tonight, early tomorrow.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1684. Thunderground
2:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SJ,
Thanks for the link. I've added it to my bookmarks along with your Weather Learning Videos link. Awesome.
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1683. TerraNova
10:05 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Early intensity forecasts for 97L:

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1682. NorthxCakalaky
2:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: windsock at 2:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Okm which one , if any , do we have to worry about along the Gulf coast?


Should be a rain event. Slight chance it could develope to a T.D. Heavy rain for L.A, and Texas.
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1681. extreme236
2:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
At least at this time I think it will...
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1680. StormJunkie
2:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
None and all windsock :~)

Little too early to determine all of that at the time, so do be overly concerned about any, but keep an eye on all as the next few days unfold we will start to get a better handle on what they are going to do.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1679. Tazmanian
7:16 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
1678. Eyewall911
2:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
95 96 97 11 too many numbers to keep up with
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1677. extreme236
2:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think 97L will become a depression, shear should be low enough for it over the next 48-72hrs
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1676. Drakoen
2:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1675. Weather456
10:14 AM AST on September 23, 2007
94L is still there...and has a surface low that expected to emerge over the gulf soon and actually organize.
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1674. extreme236
2:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
shear is already rapidly decreasing in part of the eastern caribbean
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1673. windsock
2:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Okm which one , if any , do we have to worry about along the Gulf coast?
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1672. NorthxCakalaky
2:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good Mornin

: First day of Fall
: Tropics explode
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1671. extreme236
2:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 2:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

i dont see any thing come out of 94L i dont think it has it SFC low any more


yes, it still does...it just emerged this morning
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1670. extreme236
2:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
shear is decreasing near 97L...shouldnt have a problem developing for the next couple days
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1669. Tazmanian
7:12 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
i dont see any thing come out of 94L i dont think it has it SFC low any more
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
1668. mit5000
2:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
advisory soon
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1667. Drakoen
2:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Very busy week ahead.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1666. ajcamsmom
9:05 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:03 AM CDT on September 23, 2007.

Thanks edf :~)

Designed by hobbyists for hobbyists.

Thanks to all hobbyists that do such fine work...very good information...one stop shop
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1665. Crawls
2:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Looks like it's going to be a busy week.
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1664. nrtiwlnvragn
2:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Computer Hurricane Guidance page from NWS. To see data on all storms, click through Previous versions.
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1663. Weather456
10:06 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 10:02 AM AST on September 23, 2007.
weather456 Jerry is on the Navy site....


yeah..just saw it
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1662. floridaeast
1:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
lol - these models are going to get a headacke with all the invests out there. it will be interesting to see 96 & 97 on how close to fl or the gulf
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1661. mit5000
2:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
is this a cyclone?


500

this 1 is jerry :

500
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1660. Stoopid1
2:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
So we should se STS Jerry at the next advisory, huh? And, 96 is looking impressive. Nothing but good conditions ahead of it, this could easily become a TD sometime in the next 24-36 hours. 94 is fighting a battle with time, if not for that, it could easily become a TS. 97 has lost a little punch. Just wait and see for 97.
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1659. extreme236
2:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
and TD15W is now named Francisco (name was submitted by the USA)
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1658. StormJunkie
2:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks edf :~)

Designed by hobbyists for hobbyists.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1657. TerraNova
10:01 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
NOAA's FTP server has upgraded S-TD 11 to Jerry.
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1656. Drakoen
2:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
weather456 Jerry is on the Navy site....
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1655. StormJunkie
2:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thunder, look under the models section here. The NWS NCEP page is what you are looking for I think. You can change the area view for the models by selecting the different areas above the table.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1654. earthlydragonfly
10:00 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Thanks SJ.. Also thanks for the link to your site. Great site you have!!
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1653. hurricanehanna
9:59 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Goodmorning all. Been away from the computer for a couple of days. Could someone give me a quick lowdown of what is going on? Thanks
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1652. Weather456
10:00 AM AST on September 23, 2007

On the computer model page for the nhc, we now have jerry


where's that site located.
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1651. Patrap
8:59 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
WXTLIST WMO=NOUS42 MATCH=KNHC TCPOD
NOUS42 KNHC 221400 2007265 1417
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-120
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TD-10 WAS CANCELED BY 22/0000Z.
II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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1650. Thunderground
1:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
can someone post a link to the nhc models page? TIA
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1649. Drakoen
2:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: earthlydragonfly at 1:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Can anyone confirm there is a COC on 97I???


There is an area of low pressure but no defined center of circulation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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