TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1749. Weather456
10:48 AM AST on September 23, 2007
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TODAY.
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1748. StormJunkie
2:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
785, give these a try. About 30 minutes in total, but should help with better understanding how to view many of the model pages.

Some help videos for beginning to better understand the models.

View these first

And then there is one on the FSU site that is linked in my blog.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
1747. floridaeast
2:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok i know what your doing having fun!yep two weeks away and anyhting can happen, so lets end it. i speak my opion.
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1745. decimus785
2:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I cant get the computer models image of invest 97 to enlarge,can someone help me?
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1744. StormJunkie
2:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
NC, you can find the models from that link I posted a few posts back. Also sent you WU mail.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
1743. Weather456
10:45 AM AST on September 23, 2007
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1742. CanePredictor
2:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
GOOD MORNING ALL!!! I dont get on that often in less theres alot of activity going on in the tropics. I will start to get on alot more often though because i find this blog interesting. I went to bed last night with 9$L now we have a named storm and 96L and 97L. Wow! My personal opinion is it looks like 96L may follow an ingrid like track. But does anyone know how the shear is over there? Is the shear as strong as it was when Ingrid died? Also 97? looks like it may also go north of the Islands , and once the models get a grip they will most likely shift north of the Islands. And Subtropical Storm Jerry looks like it will be an unpredictabke system as of right now it remains stationary...
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1741. OUSHAWN
2:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Would not be surprised at all if they cancel the RECON for the GOM this afternoon...in fact, I'm expecting them to cancel it. I believe the Leewards should be the next to worry...

Shawn
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1740. NorthxCakalaky
2:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: floridaeast at 2:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

just randomly choosing?
looking at models, not a rocket scientest

Can I have a link to the models please?
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1739. decimus785
2:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L looking great,looks likr the end of september and month of october is gonna be busy
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1738. tudor1
2:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I am a great lurker and once in a great while make a posting here. I have a question/observation here. I know the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is Sept. 10th. I have been seeing that same graph for years. However, it just seems to me that in the past five years or so, the peak of the season seems to be later and later. I can understand one year peaking later, but it seems to me that a pattern is now setting up for a later peak. Just wondering if anyone else has had a similar observation.
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1736. extreme236
2:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 2:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

RIP 97L seriously


Reminds me of all those RIP 94L's....must have made Felix angry cause once he formed he got going...i thought people learned from the past
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1735. F1or1d1an
2:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Adjuster - I don't think that Gaia even has any idea. Remember - these are her mischievous children...
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1734. floridaeast
2:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
just randomly choosing?
looking at models, not a rocket scientest
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1733. StormJunkie
2:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
BOBA, Welcome ☺

You may also want to check the Quick Links for items such as models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more. Easy way to get the links if you periodically use different computers as well.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
1732. hurricane23
10:41 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Need to see that westerly wind but overall it should be a TD in the next day or two.
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1731. Weather456
10:27 AM AST on September 23, 2007
96L

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1730. Patrap
9:39 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
BOBA,..ALL..or most the Imagery I use is on the LSU site here Link

Also..LSU has added the wunderground to it's WAVCIS page . The Link is on the Left side , "Tropical Weather" highlited in RED.
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1729. ladyluck276
10:38 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
RIP 97L seriously
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1728. extreme236
2:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
maybe there waiting for dvorak estimates on 96L to go up
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1727. decimus785
2:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
goodmoring everybody,hello to you too 96L and 97L...i was expecting you guys
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1726. youradjuster
2:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
NOBODY but mother nature knows where a storm will be in TEN DAYS nobody
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1725. Stoopid1
2:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
NHC will likely upgrade 96 in the next 24 hours. It already has most of the requirements for being a TD fulfilled, and they are likely not going to fly missions out that far, so I imagine they'll go with the data.
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1724. StormJunkie
2:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks Thunder. Hope to have some more of those video up real soon!
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1723. NorthxCakalaky
2:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
By: floridaeast at 2:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

my thoughts only did not say it definitly would


I know.Why do you think its going there? Or are you just randomly choosing?
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1722. floridaeast
2:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
my thoughts only did not say it definitly would
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1721. BOBA
2:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
PaTrap thanks for the link. I've been looking for that since I changed computers a few weeks back.
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1720. Drakoen
2:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Looks like a TD pressure at 1007mb with 25kt winds.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30311
1719. BOBA
2:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Whoa, just popped in the office for a few minutes to update some data and was amazed at the activity. Going to be an interesting week. It will be interesting to see what develops from the soup off the Afican coast. Bet the hedge fund guys try to rally the oil and gas markets on Monday.
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1718. NorthxCakalaky
2:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
also believe the invest 96 coming off the coast of african does have it sht all together and believe a td in next few days or sooner, with nothing too serious fromit going north east movment. my possible thought east coast maybe florida, my thought only now


what makes you think it will hit there?
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1717. hurricane23
10:36 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
FFF
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13762
1716. pablolopez26
2:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow i went to sleep last night with Invest 94L, and i wake up this morning to One names storm and 2 more invests!!! I dont like 97L... That one doesnt look good, forming so far south and all!!!
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1715. floridaeast
2:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
holy thats what i meant lol
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1714. stormybil
2:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i know the models show 97l going west into the caribiean but steve lyons did say it will go west then nw heading a little north of the islands and imo 96l will go the same way watch the high it will be a big player in mid week as to where they will really go maybe fish or maybe sunshine state biy a one two punch just might come in play
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1713. LightningCharmer
2:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I know about the EUMETSAT thats what i use lol.

Sorry, misinterpreted what you meant by "full view." GOES only show part of it right now.
Hope you didn't take any offense.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
1712. hurricane23
10:28 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
If 97L makes it into the caribbean the upper level environment is not looking to great and its chances are 50/50 right now.

96L seems better organized at this time but iam yet to see any westerly winds but overall its on its way to a TD.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13762
1711. Drakoen
2:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
floridaeast 96L is already away from the African coast..
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30311
1710. seflagamma
10:22 AM AST on September 23, 2007
good morning,
WOW we have so many systems out there to watch it is almost confusing!

Going to be busy around here it for a while, it appears!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40894
1709. nrtiwlnvragn
2:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Jerry Advisory, Jerry Discussion
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1707. flzepher
2:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
As I said last night before the CV wave became 96L, this one is going to be most interesting to watch. There will be much bebate on track and intensity. We it follow a weekness in the High down the road, will it miss the weekness and High build back in to move it West, will a front make it a fish. So many factors. If 97L gets thru it stage it is going thru, It will be interesting also. It just may work it way into GOM down the road. Still to early to tell
1706. centex
2:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think 94L has a chance to be next TD. NHC will jump on it early if it develops in next 24 hours.
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1705. Stoopid1
2:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Isnt it hard for some cyclones to develop at such low latitudes... I believe 96L will develop but the center is at 6.4N right now...it seems to be slowly rising though

Not in the Atlantic, but Tropical storm Vamei(a Cat 1 on the Safir-Simpson) formed at 1.4 north in the Wpac.

Vamei
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1704. txalwaysprepared
2:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I guess I picked the wrong 10 day time frame to give birth. Beautiful! lol

Will be watching the storms closely... and all y'alls comments on them.

Thanks!
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1703. Patrap
9:28 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
The faster a CV storm gets tighter..the more its likely to trend Poleward...

The Stronger Storm trends Poleward, due to angular Momentumn
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1702. Drakoen
2:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: LightningCharmer at 2:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

In a few more hours we should get a full view of the CV wave. Maybe get a floater on it later tonight, early tomorrow

EUMETSAT SECTOR 4


I know about the EUMETSAT thats what i use lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30311
1701. Patrap
9:27 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean


Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1700. mit5000
2:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
hi td12 (96l)

and td 13 (97l)

and td 14 (94l)
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1699. LightningCharmer
2:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
In a few more hours we should get a full view of the CV wave. Maybe get a floater on it later tonight, early tomorrow

EUMETSAT SECTOR 4
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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