TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1849. catastropheadjuster
2:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
456: In that image you posted toward the north of it is that SAL? I mean I don't know if SAL is still out there or not.
CAduster
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1847. extreme236
3:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 3:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

in nhc lingo, it sounds like TD11 could be 97L... maybe pulling an Humberto. Remember how it beat Ingrid?


Already have 11L lol (STS jerry)
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1846. OUSHAWN
3:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Patrap,

I'm just not seeing what you are seeing. I don't really see it organizing at all. I can see the circulation but that is about it. All the storms are being blown way to the north by the southerly shear. I'm not saying you are wrong...just saying I personally don't see it.

Shawn
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1845. mit5000
3:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 3:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

in nhc lingo, it sounds like TD11 could be 97L... maybe pulling an Humberto. Remember how it beat Ingrid?


wtf
weve already had td11 its called jerry

we on td12 now!
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1843. extreme236
3:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
well 97L stil is organizing according to the NHC...maybe the overall sfc feature is organizing, rather than the convection, which with an anticyclone, this should develop
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1842. smmcdavid
10:20 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
I understand that there are rules and this blog is for tropical weather, but we need to have a little fun too. I like your post good doc.
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1841. Patrap
10:19 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOM Visible Loop shows the System better.

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1840. benirica
3:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
in nhc lingo, it sounds like TD11 could be 97L... maybe pulling an Humberto. Remember how it beat Ingrid?
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1839. mit5000
3:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: decimus785 at 3:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

i have a feeling that october will be the busiest month of the season.

Who's with me?


id say draw with september

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1837. Eyewall911
3:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
we don't take sarcasam too lightly around these parts
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1836. TheCaneWhisperer
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: decimus785 at 3:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

guys we better pray for 96L to develop as soon as possible and that it takes a NW track,because this can be monster..


I clicked through all the steering layers for 96L and, regardless of strength, the western perifery of the Subtropical ridge is between 50 an 55W where there is a weakness. A W to WNW until the weakness looks likely.
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1834. Tazmanian
8:17 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
ok 456



evere one that live in the leeward islands needs to watch 96L this could be come a 95kt hurricane by time it gets there evere one needs to watch it


this could be are 3dr cat 5 later in the week
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1833. mississippiwx23
3:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It will be hard to top Sept. if all these systems form.
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1832. Patrap
10:17 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico

Link

The broad SFC feature is coming off the Yucatan ,.and is slowly organising at the Base of the Moisture plume..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1831. decimus785
3:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i have a feeling that october will be the busiest month of the season.

Who's with me?
1828. Weather456
11:16 AM AST on September 23, 2007
ohh..i just saw the TCFA on 96L....
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1827. mit5000
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
2007's seasons bringing more suprises- we are at a faster pace than e pac now!
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1826. Weather456
11:15 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Taz....we are monitoring both 96 and 97L down in the leeward islands but 96L is of greater interest.
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1824. extreme236
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Basically, 96 and 97L could become depressions soon
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1823. decimus785
3:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
CaneDoctorMandeli sounded pretty sarcastic
1822. Weather456
11:07 AM AST on September 23, 2007
96 and 97 - 1130

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION...
AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
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1821. Tazmanian
8:13 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
if any one live down in the
Caribbean i would keep a eye on this if i where you its forcast to have winds of 95kt in 120hrs or so

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1820. extreme236
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1070
MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION...
AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1819. StormJunkie
3:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
TCW, noticed that on the GFS. Don't think it shows enough weakness in the high to turn it though. That said, the Ukmet, CMC, and Nogaps show a much weaker ridge in the long term with a big hole in it.
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1818. Prgal
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: mit5000 at 3:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 3:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: Eyewall911 at 3:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I don't see any of these storms affecting the U.S. Too much shear and the B high is weak. I thing CV storms will be fish food.

Yeah, you're 100% correct. Lets just forget watching these systems. Hey! Lets just call it November 30th, why dont we?

doc mandeli

is tht sarcasm?


Of course its sarcasm.
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1817. TerraNova
11:14 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
TCFA for 96L:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231500Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 231500Z
UNCLAS //N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.5N 27.0W TO
8.0N 33.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE
DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED APPROXIMATLY 600NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIAMETLY AT 7 KNOTS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010MB.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL REMAIN
TO BE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR
CANCELLED BY 241500Z SEP 2007//
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1816. LightningCharmer
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Is'nt diurnal minimum when you wake up early Monday morning for work, after all day Sunday watching football, eating wings, and drinking beer?
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1815. Drakoen
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1070
MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION...
AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
1814. rxcyclone
3:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Just curious where the folks are who said the season was over just a few days ago. Seriously, credit to the pros who indicated it would be an above average year with lots of later season storms. Sure they get it wrong once in a while, but I'll trust NHCs judgment when it comes to planning to protect life and property.
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1813. mit5000
3:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
jerrys becomeing more sub tropical by the hour
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1812. Drakoen
3:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
1811. Eyewall911
3:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Nobody said forget watching the storms Just said fish food.
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1810. mit5000
3:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 3:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: Eyewall911 at 3:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I don't see any of these storms affecting the U.S. Too much shear and the B high is weak. I thing CV storms will be fish food.

Yeah, you're 100% correct. Lets just forget watching these systems. Hey! Lets just call it November 30th, why dont we?


doc mandeli

is tht sarcasm?
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1809. fldoughboy
3:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Happy first day of fall..I am in Florida and will feel like summer for another 3 weeks.

Also, got Jerry on the maps. That won't be a problem for anyone. Karen could be the next one in either in the Antilles or the GOM.
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1808. decimus785
3:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
CaneDoctorMandel your funny,lets forget watching the the systems,none will hit land
1807. Tazmanian
8:03 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
for 96L


SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231300Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 231300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.5N 27.0W TO 8.0N 33.5W WITHIN
THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 0 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
27.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 241800Z.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1806. mississippiwx23
3:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
This is true, its diurnal max here in mississippi (well, a few hours ago)...woops. Forgot the earth is not flat, ha!
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1805. LightningCharmer
3:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Does diurnal minimum and diurnal maximum affect sub-tropical and extra-tropical storms the same as tropical storms?
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1802. decimus785
3:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
guys we better pray for 96L to develop as soon as possible and that it takes a NW track,because this can be monster..
1801. NorthxCakalaky
3:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 3:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

wx23, we are approaching the diurnal minimum right now, not the max. Max is when the atmosphere is the coolest. Early morning hours.


Min is when the Sun is over the system.Which can kill the convection.
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1800. TheCaneWhisperer
3:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Looking at the steering, 96L should stay down between 10 and 15N, low shear zone, till about 50 to 55W where there is a weakness in the ridge. GFS wants to keep a large scale HP on the East Coast thru the forcast period, hopefully 96L will be far enough north at that time to feel the weakness and go out to sea.
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1799. Eyewall911
3:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I don't see any of these storms affecting the U.S. Too much shear and the B high is weak. I thing CV storms will be fish food.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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