TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2749. nrtiwlnvragn
11:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Tazmanian

The reason 96L is not on a floater is they would have to create the floater from the Full Earth scan, which only occurs every hour. For the normal floater we see, they use the Extended N Hemisphere scan which occurs every 30 minutes but only from 20S-66N/45-120W.

Link
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2748. dearmas
7:59 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Do any of these storms look like they could come to Florida
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2747. Weather456
7:56 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormhank at 7:55 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
wonderering if 96 L developes would it turn into fish storm or possibly move more west n affect leewards?? any thoughts?


all depends on the subtropical ridge and mid-latitude weakness. If there's a weakness in the ridge then it may be a fish..otherwise..its going westward. Another factor is 96L's very low latitude (below 10N) so if there's a nw turn it may occur late (after 50W). Its really too early to say if it will affect us in the leeward islands so the most we can do is monitor. remember 96L is almost 6 days out so alot can change by the weekend.

look at this link
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2745. Tazmanian
4:59 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
its 23:45
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
2744. weatherbro
11:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
If the North Atlantic Current dies in it's typical cycle every couple of centuries our hurricane season would cease for awhile.
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2743. hurricane23
7:57 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
456 the data is under a special agreement from the European satellite agency (EUMETSAT).
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2742. CJ5
6:53 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:52 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.
Here's an updated image from EUMETSAT...Images update every 15 minutes.


That is the best looking storm, this far east, that I have seen in a long while. It is developed into a classic invest. That shot certainly gives it an almost hurricane look already. There is no doubt, by sight, it should be nothing less than a TD. I think it has a chance to be one fo the earliest forming canes.
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2741. Tazmanian
4:55 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
and next year we will have a back up line of floaters if we evere get 4 or more name storms at a time will have a back up line
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2740. weatherbro
11:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Karen and Lee tomorrow?
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2739. Rick54
6:53 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
I am trying to figure the mechanism for 94L to turn west. Anyone up to explaining?

Depends on the front that is moving down from the North ... If it doesn't move far enough south the storm will turn west.
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2738. stormhank
11:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
wonderering if 96 L developes would it turn into fish storm or possibly move more west n affect leewards?? any thoughts?
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2736. extreme236
11:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
well we have to remember that the SSD only puts floaters out on systems that are within catl range...and 96L is in that area and a floater should be put up by morning
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2735. hurricane23
7:46 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Here's an updated image from EUMETSAT...Images update every 15 minutes.

ff
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2734. DDR
11:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Barbados,I see 3 blobs associated with 97L, im confused,but i think the one furthest east is near the center
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2733. SaymoBEEL
11:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I am trying to figure the mechanism for 94L to turn west. Anyone up to explaining?
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2732. Tazmanian
4:50 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
oh one more part i want evere one to no about in there e mail too me

hi David,

The initiation and re-centering of our floaters is now handled by the
Satellite Services Division tropical analysts who keep an eye on them
24x7. These areas should have been put on the website once our
analysts
began tracking them. This is the first season that they have been
given
this responsibility and I'm sure there are still a few bugs to be
worked
out.

Your request for additional floaters has been echoed by others, and we
are hoping to add additional floaters to the system for next years
hurricane season.


dos that help out on why they have not put 96L up on the SDD site yet?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
2731. Weather456
7:49 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Chicklit at 7:47 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
Thanks 456 for the comparison from noon to 7 p.m. It shows 96L becoming more organized. How long will it take to get to about 60W?


4 - 6 days at current speed.
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2730. stormhank
11:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96 L could turn out to be the typical "cape verde" type storm // track?
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2729. Chicklit
11:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Like this am, I am not sure about 94L doing much of anything.
Looks to me like another sprawling system bringing showers to Florida.
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2727. extreme236
11:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well, the 0Z model runs will be initialized in about 10 minutes or so, so we should get an idea where exactly each system is at (when it comes to the center) and the intensity
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2726. Weather456
7:47 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Yes thats the one i have access to but cant post images.Hopefully this thing will push west soon so SSD will get a floater on it.I spoke to a buddy of mine at SSD and from what i heard the floater could be placed sometime mid-morning tommorow.

is it becuz they wont allow you? or some other reason?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2725. CJ5
6:42 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
96L looks very impressive at I suspect may be a TS in 24 or so hours at this rate. Nice banding, plenty of convection, warm waters, and little shear. I do not see much hindering this storm. I think a W movement is more likely over the next 3 days. Anyone from the EC to MX should keep thier eyes open with this one.

97L looks ok and is in the right area to quickly intensify. Shear will be an issue for a while. I believe this one, if it holds, will move more NW in a few days and DR is in the sights.

Like this am, I am not sure about 94L doing much of anything.
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2724. Barbados
11:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Any new coordinates for 97L?
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2723. SaymoBEEL
11:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think the key is to encourage people to maintain a certain level of preparedness throughout the season. If there is a storm in the area, you should become hypervigilant.
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2722. Chicklit
11:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks 456 for the comparison from noon to 7 p.m. It shows 96L becoming more organized. How long will it take to get to about 60W?
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2721. hurricane23
7:44 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 7:41 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:30 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
456 i have that one which which is available to the public.Here is the one i mean is only allowed for cira personnel.

Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater


Neither can I.

Yes thats the one i have access to but cant post images.Hopefully this thing will push west soon so SSD will get a floater on it.I spoke to a buddy of mine at SSD and from what i heard the floater could be placed sometime mid-morning tommorow.
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2720. Weather456
7:45 PM AST on September 23, 2007
i didnt know you can email the SSD. I thought even if we tried they would ignore us.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2719. extreme236
11:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Ok, so hopefully we will have more floaters for the atlantic next year...yay lol
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2718. stormhank
11:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Any thoughts on if 96L or 97L will develope and ever pose any threat to US??
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2717. tornadofan
11:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
i e mail the SDD about the floaters here iw what they siad


LOL - thanks Taz!
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2716. Weather456
7:43 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2715. Tazmanian
4:39 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
i e mail the SDD about the floaters here iw what they siad

hi David,

The initiation and re-centering of our floaters is now handled by the
Satellite Services Division tropical analysts who keep an eye on them
24x7. These areas should have been put on the website once our
analysts
began tracking them. This is the first season that they have been
given
this responsibility and I'm sure there are still a few bugs to be
worked
out.

Your request for additional floaters has been echoed by others, and we
are hoping to add additional floaters to the system for next years
hurricane season.


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
2714. SaymoBEEL
11:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
The gulf be teeming with wetness.
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2713. DDR
11:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey pottery!looks like we'll get some rain from 97L tomorrow?
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2711. groundman
11:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
21.2 N for 94L, it STILL isn't off the peninsula, or not far, right?? but she be booming.
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2710. Weather456
7:40 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:30 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
456 i have that one which which is available to the public.Here is the one i mean is only allowed for cira personnel.

Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater


Neither can I.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2709. Weather456
7:40 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Here's a diagram I made. Image A was taken around noon today while image B was taken at 6:45 PM EDT. The wording is red might difficult to see "Deep convection"

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2708. pottery2
7:30 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Misscajun, there are indeed some posts that appear to wish for doom. But the people on here ( and especialy the younger ones ) are often over enthusiastic. It does seem that to be able to say " storm x passed over my house " gives some people some kind of credibility.
I dont believe that anyone is wishing bad things on anyone. Its a site/blog about storms.
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2707. BahaHurican
7:32 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: presslord at 7:31 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

TV mets have been so beat up about panic mongering they're afraid to stick their necks out...most play it very conservative....


There has to be some happy medium between panic mongering and pretending the storm won't do much harm. Maybe we are a bit closer to finding it now than we used to be. These days I hear tv mets saying things like "we're watching a system in the tropics, and we'll let you know how much it's likely to affect our area" instead of "there's a system out there, but it's not going to affect us so chill".
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2706. Tazmanian
4:35 PM PDT on September 23, 2007
97L.INVEST
96L.INVEST
94L.INVEST
11L.JERRY
10L.NONAME

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
2704. beell
11:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94l
If anything does develop, current 850mb steering is NNW or even NW. The approaching CONUS trof is lined up N/S now and pushing E. This is the same trof that picked up xTD10 and ran it N then NE. (also the same trof that a few others mentioned as a factor for 94l). Some of the early model runs indicated a hard left for 94l in the BOC-probably because indications were that the CONUS trof would miss it. Development has been delayed to say the least and this may/may not happen imho.
Suppertime!
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2702. zoomiami
11:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
TV mets have been so beat up about panic mongering they're afraid to stick their necks out...most play it very conservative....

definitely here in miami
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2701. SaymoBEEL
11:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
MissCajun,
Yes some always predict the worst. I assume you were talking about Psuedo TD 10. What I learned from this blog, the NWS, and other sources was not to cancel plans for Saturday. Sometimes you have to use your own judgement based on all the information.
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2700. BahaHurican
7:29 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Oh, the NASA site is up again? I was having problems with it all day.

And they usually do their refreshes every 7-11 minutes.
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2699. presslord
7:30 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
TV mets have been so beat up about panic mongering they're afraid to stick their necks out...most play it very conservative....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.