TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1949. Tropicnerd13
4:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i know mit. you are up in england and it is like 6 there.
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1948. Twinkster
4:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
what is 96L's T#
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1947. timjonzz
4:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Where does one get the latest greatest GFDL model?
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1945. Weather456
12:01 PM AST on September 23, 2007
thanks Drak
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1944. Tropicnerd13
3:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok guys, could someone tell me if they have ANY thoughts on this???
active atlantic disturbances:
94l: western carribean/gom wave, goes north, develops into a tropical depression/storm, heads towards Texas/LA (30% chance imo) did anyone else notice the center looks to have changed spots? it looks to be a little south of the main rainbow of convection (from noaa maps)
Jerry: north east atlantic low pressure system, is a ts, will just go north east. not of much concern for the U.S. except for shipping.
97l: central atlantic wave within itcz, may become td or ts within 3-4 days (30% chance imo) looking worse today than yesterday. development is possible but unlikely imo.
96l: african wave, could become a td or ts within the next 1-2 days, may follow dean path (40% chance imo b/c so far away)

very little cance for anything else to become an invest unless 94l splits in half (20% chance imo)

this is all on observation from the noaa maps. my computer is acting up so i dont know if they are accurate. please tell me if you guys think this makes any sence at all ( i know my spelling doesnt)
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1943. decimus785
4:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L looking like a big Blob
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1942. CaneAddict17
3:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
If anyone wants to read a detailed tropical weather discussion you can use this site. It is updated at least once daily in the mornings. I find it very helpful and accurate.
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1939. extreme236
3:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: woodlandstx at 3:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

too much shear for 94L, no longer a 1009 on SFC charts


Well the nhc says it still has a low pressure, so i guess we should go with that, sometimes they contradict themselves
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1938. Drakoen
3:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 3:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 11:53 AM AST on September 23, 2007.

can i have a link to that imagery.


go to google and search for nemoc. I think its the second one down.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
1936. mit5000
3:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
000
AGUS74 KFWR 231533
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1033 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID SEPTEMBER 23 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 28

A weak disturbance, the remnants of subtropical depression 10, was
moving across northeast Texas this morning, producing scattered
showers. This disturbance will move northwestward around the
western periphery of an upper level ridge of high pressure that will
continue to strengthen over the eastern U.S. today. Further west, a
large upper level trough of low pressure was located over the
intermountain west. Disturbances in the southwest flow ahead of
this trough were producing scattered showers across New Mexico into
southern Colorado.

As the western U.S. trough pushes across the Rockies today, scattered
precipitation will shift eastward into western Texas. The heaviest
rainfall will remain well north of the WGRFC area, however. Between
the eastern U.S. ridge and western U.S. trough, a general southerly
flow will prevail across the WGRFC region. Deep tropical moisture,
associated with a disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula, will be
pulled northward toward the southeast Texas coast. As a result,
scattered precipitation will continue over east and southeast Texas.
A lack of significant upper level forcing or surface boundaries will
preclude widespread heavy precipitation.

The upper level trough over the western U.S. is forecast to slide
across the central and northern plains Monday and Tuesday. In its
wake, a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over the
desert southwest and northern Mexico. This flow pattern will pull
the disturbace over the Yucatan westward toward central Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbace will continue to flow
toward the Texas coast, continuing rain chances over south and
southeast Texas for mid to late week. The upper level trough is
also forecast to push a weak cold front into northern portions of
the WGRFC region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This front will
provide a focus for scattered precipitation over northern Texas. A
second reinforcing cold front is forecast to dive into the WGRFC
region on Thursday and will sink into central and southern Texas by
the end of the week. As a result scattered, generally light,
precipitation will be possible for mid week to late over much of the
WGRFC region.


are they missing something here?

oh yeh

std 10 was a td
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1935. Tazmanian
8:56 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
this is odd


96L has a T # but no Floater


97L has a Floater but no T #
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
1934. Weather456
11:55 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:53 AM AST on September 23, 2007.

can i have a link to that imagery.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1933. woodlandstx
3:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
too much shear for 94L, no longer a 1009 on SFC charts
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1932. moonlightcowboy
3:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Mit, it's vary far south, lots can happen with shear in that length of time. Fairly organized now, it might get beat up, but if it says on a more w, than wnw course for some time, it could be something to reckon with and that high off the east coast is not very strong...it could find that seam.
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1931. Drakoen
3:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
only half the system can be seen.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
1930. nrtiwlnvragn
3:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Txrainstorm at 3:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Never commented before been watching blog for months but would like more comment on possible rain headed for LA/TX, flooding? Love Patrap last haha post..Thanks for all the info.


HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION for western gulf. Forecasts 94L towards central Mexico.
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1927. Drakoen
3:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 3:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drakoen, that high is on the weak side. Might allow 96L to find the east coast, reckon?


Too early to tell. Right now the model have it heading in a WNW direction as opposed to a west direction we saw with Dean and Feliz.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
1925. extreme236
3:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

and yet no Floater for 96L


Its too far east for a floater to be put on it....I believe it has to be in the catl range and its moving in that way now
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1924. mit5000
3:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 3:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drakoen, that high is on the weak side. Might allow 96L to find the east coast, reckon?


yeh but 96l will be ingrid the 2nd
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1923. Drakoen
3:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
1922. Tazmanian
8:51 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
and yet no Floater for 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
1921. Melagoo
3:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
... just don't call me late for dinner LOL!

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1920. moonlightcowboy
3:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drakoen, that high is on the weak side. Might allow 96L to find the east coast, reckon?
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1919. Weather456
11:49 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1918. Drakoen
3:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
updated SFC charts.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
1917. Weather456
11:34 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Tropical Storm Francisco

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1916. Tazmanian
8:41 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
any one live in the Caribbean or MX or the gulf coast you need to watch 97L it takes the winds up to 80kt in 120hr but i sure it will be march strong then

lol

same gos with 96L FL gulf coast and the Caribbean needs to watch 96L it takes the winds to 95kt in 120hrs but i sure it could be march stronger by then

lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
1914. extreme236
3:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Perhaps the overall sfc feature with 97L is organizing right now...convection should increase as we approach dmax
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1913. HurricaneGeek
11:46 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
And 96 has a lot of water to work with to boot....96 will most likly get Karen.
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1912. centex
3:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94l / The low has been over land and just now going into gulf. Not sure why some were expecting development over land and expecting it to look orgranized at this time. If tonight it's still unchanged than you can start saying development is unlikely.
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1909. will40
11:37 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 11:30 AM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Why do y'all insist on reposting rude comments. Why not just address the poster and leave the rude comment to fall by the wayside?


I agree 100% SJ cuz when you have someone on Ignore you still see what they said when it is reposted
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1907. extreme236
3:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

yes 236 they are but 14W was a bust


Yea, 14w was close to becoming a TS, but didnt quite make it...similiar to our TD10
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1906. NorthxCakalaky
3:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Be back later.

Multitasking.

typin,phone,xbox
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1905. Drakoen
3:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I don't see anything forming anytime soon. Everything is messy and disorganized.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
1903. Tazmanian
8:38 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
yes 236 they are but 14W was a bust
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114710
1902. OUSHAWN
3:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Guys, I'm sorry but I just don't see how you say that 94L is looking better this morning. All the moisture you see in the central gulf is far from the center. The center doesn't have any thunderstorm activity around it whatsoever and the shear is going to keep it that way. Believe me, I'm not trying to be rude in any manner...I'm just disagreeing with you.

Shawn
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
1901. moonlightcowboy
3:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SJ, that east coast storm may be in the works afterall.
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1900. extreme236
3:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
heck, by the end of the week, we could be close to the wpac (in terms of numbers...they are on 15W)
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1899. CJ5
10:37 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 10:36 AM CDT on September 23, 2007.
Another intresting note, the GFS wants to develop the 2 waves behind 96L as well.


Yea, I saw that. It really could get interesting if the current and those did play out...wow.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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