TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1999 - 1949

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

1999. WeatherfanPR
4:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think 97L still looks very disorganized so right now is a weak system, there is a broad low level circulation for sure but the convection is not consolidating at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1998. fire635
4:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hey all... seems to me like 96L is getting its act together quite nicely. I would'nt be surprised if its a TD already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1997. caneman
12:53 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
SfloidaCat5

Keep your eyes on both 97 and 96L. Fronts are coming down now that should pull these up out of the Caribbean. Hopefully up and out to sea also.


What do you think the chances are of your scenario playing out?

Caneman hates tropical blobs.

Any chance of african dust or dry air messing up the convection? The outflow? The rotation? Any windshear in the region?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1996. Rick54
11:51 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
94L, if it can survive some shear is likely to form, but I also think it's going to follow the trough somewhat and the model track will become more ne than it is now...northcentral GOM.

I was looking at the fronts as well. Depending on how far south and east they push 94l could end up all the way over into Fl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1995. TheCaneWhisperer
4:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yeah it does SFCAT5, hopefully 96L doesn't follow 97L. Could be a big mess for someone down the line.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1994. retaining1
4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I wouldn't discount 94L, even though it is a disorganized mess right now. The models all diverge with the system in the mid-gulf. One has the storm moving rapidly to the North, another slows and moves it West, and a third stalls it in mid-gulf.

Water temperatures are a very warm 85 deg.F and wind shear is low in central gulf. 94L can quickly organize into a strong tropical storm in these conditions.

When the storm picks a direction, I'll relax. If it stalls, like at least one model says it can, 94L might make trouble for the gulf coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1993. Madinina
15:48 GMT le 23 septembre 2007
Hi
I'm in Martinique. It was very hot in there. Now it's raining and we have thunderstorms. Meteo France didn't give us information about 97L. No warning, nothing. It's was the same thing with Dean. We was on red alert very late. Do we have to fear 97L ?
Thanks for yours answers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1992. Sfloridacat5
4:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L does look like it could be a possible threat if it follows its projected path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1991. weathersp
12:48 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Re: Drak @ :46

Well so it is sorry about that..
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1990. TheCaneWhisperer
4:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SfloidaCat5

Keep your eyes on both 97 and 96L. Fronts are coming down now that should pull these up out of the Caribbean. Hopefully up and out to sea also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1989. Drakoen
4:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
weathersp your imagery is outdated....
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29910
1987. weathersp
12:41 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
97L on the left and 96L on the right..
96L and 97L
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1986. beell
4:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94l maybe has a seed going at 22N 91W. Nothing really. Just a persistent plume of convection trying to move out from under the upper high.
A little NNW movement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1985. Weather456
12:39 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1984. Drakoen
4:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I just updated my blog. I worked hard on it. Please read and comment.
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29910
1983. icepilot
11:37 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Re 97L - does anyone else think this link shows increasing outflow and convection firing up

97L
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
1982. Stoopid1
4:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well, less the ACE rating, we have almost reached our average activity for the year. 11 depression, 10 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 of those major. The number of hurricanes is below the average of 6, which is why I said "almost average." We still have the rest of September, October and November, and Septmeber and October look to be heatin up. So, who said this year was a bust?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1981. Sfloridacat5
4:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L looks like the storm to watch right now. Anything coming down from the north late next week that could turn it North towards Florida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1980. TheCaneWhisperer
4:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
72 Surface Map
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1979. SaymoBEEL
4:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Link

Getting out my umbrella.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1977. TheCaneWhisperer
4:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Tropical Cyclone Danger Area (TCDA) on the Mariners 123 graphic posted by weathersp.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1976. HurricaneGeek
12:26 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
TCDA? whats that
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1975. TheCaneWhisperer
4:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: weathersp at 4:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.


Attack of the Invests on that TCDA. We could very likely see 2 more next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1974. Patrap
11:23 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1070
MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
1973. HurricaneGeek
12:22 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
96L should be a TD by tomarrow 11pm
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1972. Patrap
11:21 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Standy Coastal Miss,Se La. inbound T-storms for the afternoon.

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
1971. hahaguy
4:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L looks half decent
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1970. justcurious
4:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
wow! I got up late today, spent two hours in the garden and just logged on expecting to find 0 interesting tropical features and bam! there are 4. What a suprise for me...

so my question is about 97L. What's it "suppose" to do? I couldn't get the link to work on the opening wunderground page. Thanks,
jc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1969. cattlebaroness
4:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I know that 94L seems to be the least threat as far as development, out there. But it is the one in closest proximity to the US. Can someone give me an opinion of how or if it is developing. Are they going to still send an HH out there?

Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1968. Tazmanian
9:17 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
i dont no about you but 94L is vary hard to find is it now in the gulf or what did it go overe MX and went RIP whats going on with 94L where is it seen like i cant find it any where
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1967. redrobin
4:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hello everyone- WOW looks like a jacuzzi out there!!! All you need is a glass of wine and a date!!

All kidding aside it is really busy out there!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1966. woodlandstx
4:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
does anyone know of a merida, mexico radar site? just looking for some kind of swirl, not very noticeable on visible anymore
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1965. hahaguy
4:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
wow i see this week is going to be interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1964. Stoopid1
4:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think we should see 12 named storms by Septembers end, possibly 13. October looks to be active this year, I wouldn't doubt it if October fostered another 2 or 3 storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1963. Michfan
4:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good morning everyone. Wow this is going to be a busy day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1962. weathersp
12:11 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Invests and STD Jerry
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1961. Stoopid1
4:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96 could become a hurricane, maybe not as dramatic as georges98 suggests, but yes, the Leewards and Puerto Rico should monitor 96 closely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1960. Weather456
12:11 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Non tropical low near Spain yesterday



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1959. CanePredictor
4:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think 96L is going to achieve tropical depression status within the next 24 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1958. stoormfury
4:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
could some one tellme where is the position of the loc in 97L. ? And how far is it from the islands. i cannot believe that the system has travelled 150 miles in six hrs from 5am today to 11 am to day
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2611
1957. Tropicnerd13
4:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i think 96l could already be a td, but they can't classify it until they know for sure. anyone agree? and 97l looks to be struggling. in that comparison pic, the circulation looks apparent. sorry, the noaa site is messing up on me, so i dont have many current pics or loops. i dont think 94l will go to mexico, and i only think this because the main convection is almost directly south east of corpus christi, so if it is going north east or even north, it will most likely hit louisianna or texas, and since (sinse?) the high is in place, could it just go drifting north and then turn straight west like td10 and affect both texas and la? nevermind. im so tired i cant even understand my own babbling.
1955. Georges98
11:34 AM AST on September 23, 2007
As we know it is the peak 2007 season,jerry is not a threat to any land area,invest 94l may reform and threatening u.s coast as a tropical storm
97l may not be a problem in the windward islands
but 96l could be a big problem,it could become a TD near 7 north,the lowest formation ever then move in very warm water with gradually strength.
Leeward islands,virgin islands and puerto rico should paid attention.In the next 6 days could become a strong cat 4 hurricane near the leeward islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1954. cattlebaroness
4:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
MLC, isn't the area off the east coast suppose to head out to sea?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1953. SaymoBEEL
4:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Is the floater showing shear on 97?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1952. TampaSpin
12:06 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
What is a T#
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1950. Txrainstorm
4:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks..bookmarked that site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1949. Tropicnerd13
4:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i know mit. you are up in england and it is like 6 there.

Viewing: 1999 - 1949

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
70 °F
Mostly Cloudy