TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2049. benirica
5:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i think drak meant that its not going to be like Dean and Felix, because someone else had said that.
I dont think it will be a Dean or Felix either, none of the models have called for that, theres pretty good consensus on it being more to the north.
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2048. Drakoen
5:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Not those models LOL. The GFS, CMC and NOGAPS model runs. Look at the 850mb vorticity, use the 950mb vorticity with the GFS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
2045. Drakoen
5:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Maybe is should have been more specific. The models have it going into the eastern most Caribbean then Northwestward.
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2044. benirica
5:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
oh ok... guess you did mean 97L lol
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2043. benirica
5:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
maybe Drak meant 96L, models have it going north... but still cant rely on that because it is sooo south already.
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2042. Drakoen
5:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 5:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

how does 97L not see the caribbean Drak, its only about 400 miles from it


Ask the models not me LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
2041. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
R.I.S.E.
track mark 94l due north
25n/89.8w
R.I.S.E.= (rapid intensifing system evolving)
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2039. benirica
5:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drakoen, isnt 97L soo close to the islands already that it would almost have to go NNW to miss them?
It looks if it does take a northern turn, which it hasnt yet (still pretty west IMO), it would head towards the more northern islands... looks pretty difficult for it to miss.
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2038. benirica
5:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
WHY IS 96L so huge? Is it all a wave or is it connected to the ITCZ and thats why it looks to immense on the satellite images?
It is so impressive! What are the odds that the entire coverage area right now is the size it will have if/when it turns into a storm? They usually loose what they have an consolidate around the smaller center, dont they?
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2037. ForecasterColby
5:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow, where did all this come from?

Personally, I expect both waves to develop, but 94L looks like crap.
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2036. Drakoen
5:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L may not even see the caribbean. I just looked at the more reliable models at the lift the system northwest ward. probably in response to that Surface trough.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
2035. caneman
1:22 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Caneman prayer:

Oh weather god here me now,
We pray for ULL
We pray for windshear.
We pray for dry air intrustion

Let us hope that the two troublesome invests become nothing more than that, an invest, a mere asterisk in the annals of North Atlantic weather lore.
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2034. CaneAddict17
5:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Glad I could help, TexasHoosier. I like reading what he says, because he makes acurate forecasts as well as a long range outlook. You can even have him email it to you.
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2033. flzepher
5:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sandcrab,

Being a former Director of Emergeny Management in a Florida County, I newer saw what you describe here in Fl. The contact point to the NHC is the State. During a event of potental impact there was also a County EM Director assigned to the NHC to communicate info during threats to all the EM directors during mulitple daily conference calls. I have never experienced any lack of communication. Granted, I retired a couple of years ago, I still keep up with my contacts and have heard of no major changes. Granted, this is in Florida which in my opinion, has the best diaster management in the country. I don't know what state you are relating to.
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2031. stoormfury
5:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
although 97L has to contend with some dry air ahead of it,there is always the prospects of getting moisture when it approaches the islands T his has always happenned in the pastto other tropical systems. it appears that the system will take a route like DEAN. there is always doubt as to how the models initialised such shallow systems and my prediction is that 97L will pass to the south of Barbados and St Lucia as a tropical storm monday night/tuesday morning.
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2030. extreme236
5:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
eye, 30-40kt shear isnt effecting 94L...more like 10-20kts, as there is an ULH nearby, which has decreased shear where the center actually is
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2029. cchsweatherman
5:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good Sunday afternoon to you all.

Damn, that CV Invest looks pretty damn impressive if you ask me. That thing looks like it could be a tropical storm at the least right now. I have not seen a tropical wave that strong and that organized since the 2005 season. I have already written on my website that I predict this to become our next hurricane.

I have just updated the tropical update page on my website. I hope you will all check it out at Link.
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2028. Rippa
5:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94l has a ULL off the Texas coast to deal with, which is causing 30-40kt shear


LOL, 30-40 knot shear???

Lmao if it had 30-40 knot shear there would be no possibility whatsoever for it to develop...
NHC 11:30 edt outlook...
HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
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2027. OUFan919
5:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow!! I get on today and we have 4 areas to watch in the coming week! I think 96L could turn into a monster, it looks VERY healthy at the moment and has lots of open, clear ocean in front of it.
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2026. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
the gales of november come early
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2025. TexasHoosier
4:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I went to the website suggested by CaneAddict 17 and he/she is right on - great tropical weather discussion site and super graphics; I'll be using it in the future!

Good Job, oh' addicted one!

Watch out for 96L; not much shear and once those things get developed out there and a head of steam, hard to stop them from rollin' up everything in front of it, good or bad.

My informal test for really bad stuff is (1) if they are formed and are at or below the 20N/60W line with a general wnw track and/or (2) if they can punch thru the Florida Straits and get into the Gulf intact with a WNW forward push of 10-15 knots. No science here, just long observation of watching for a few decades.

If 94L can get organized and tracj north with some velocity into Texas, the North-Central part of this state will be looking at 50"+ plus of rainfall this year, and maybe catch the record that I think was set back in 1995 of around 56"....never saw grass this green in September in North Texas
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2024. eye
5:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L, looks the best of everything, but since it is zooming, there are obstacles it will run into(such as eventual shear), 97l has shear coming in a couple days, 94l has a ULL off the Texas coast to deal with, which is causing 30-40kt shear(not going to turn out to be anything), and Jerry, will...

Even though a high builds above a system, doesnt not mean it will not get sheared, the one that is kinda sorta over the Carribean mess is very weak.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
2023. zoomiami
5:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
wind thing = anemometer LOL
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
2022. MichaelSTL
12:15 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Andrea wasn't even subtropical when it was at hurricane strength:

06 / 1200 35.5 74.0 1012 35 extratropical
06 / 1800 35.0 73.0 1009 40 "
07 / 0000 34.3 71.7 1005 50 "
07 / 0600 33.3 72.3 998 65 "
07 / 1200 32.3 73.1 998 65 "
07 / 1800 31.5 74.0 998 65 "
08 / 0000 31.0 74.9 1000 55 "
08 / 0600 30.7 76.0 1001 50 "
08 / 1200 30.4 77.2 1001 50 "
08 / 1800 30.4 77.9 1001 50 "
09 / 0000 30.6 78.3 1001 50 "
09 / 0600 30.8 78.7 1001 50 subtropical storm
09 / 1200 30.9 79.2 1002 45 "
09 / 1800 30.9 79.6 1003 40 "
10 / 0000 30.7 79.8 1003 40 "
10 / 0600 30.5 79.9 1003 35 "
10 / 1200 30.1 79.9 1003 30 subtropical depression
10 / 1800 29.7 79.8 1003 30 "
11 / 0000 29.4 79.8 1004 30 "
11 / 0600 29.1 79.8 1004 30 remnant low
11 / 1200 28.8 79.7 1006 25 "
11 / 1800 28.5 79.5 1007 25 "
12 / 0000 28.5 79.1 1007 25 "
12 / 0600 28.8 78.8 1006 25 "
12 / 1200 29.1 78.5 1005 25 "
12 / 1800 29.4 78.0 1006 25 "
13 / 0000 29.7 77.2 1006 25 "
13 / 0600 30.1 76.0 1006 25 "
13 / 1200 30.8 74.2 1007 25 "
13 / 1800 31.4 71.9 1007 25 "
14 / 0000 31.8 69.4 1007 25 "
14 / 0600 absorbed by front
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
2021. NorthxCakalaky
5:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: sngalla at 5:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

wind thing = anemometer


thanks

lol, i realy didnt know
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2020. sngalla
5:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
wind thing = anemometer
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2019. NorthxCakalaky
5:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What is the thing you stick in the wind to measure the wind speed? You just hold it in the wind and click a button . I was going to look for one, if i knew what it is called.
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2018. CanePredictor
4:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Tropic nerd ive been think that all day....Im pretty determined that 96L is a depression.
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2017. extreme236
5:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
andrea to my knowledge never had hurricane winds...according to the cyclone report, the only reason hurricane winds were observed on the NW side was because of the pressure gradient caused by a high pressure nearby
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2016. woodlandstx
4:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L might make something of itself just yet. don't the upper level winds seem to be slackening just a bit, a little more diffuse. and the super dry air in the western GOM retreating. could see convection near the coast soon...
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2015. caneman
1:01 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Caneman can only hope for shear or perhaps a strong cold front to whisk in and lay waste to any rotational development.
With only 2 major storms to speak of this season, caneman hopes that these will be the only two for the record books.
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2013. fire635
5:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i'm having trouble finding the "center" of 94L... anyone have any idea?
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2012. JLPR
5:04 PM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 5:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Can there be a Sub-tropical Hurricane?


i dont think so
i think they get a ts strength only
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2009. ChristopherH
5:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Looks like 96L and 97L could be a potential threat to the U.S., if they develop. Still early, and we only have early models, but they definately need to be watched very closely.

Also, I notice SHIPS develops 94L to a hurricane, or very near. I realize SHIPS seems to develop everything into a hurricane, so is there really a threat of a hurricane out of 94L, in anyone's mind?
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2008. extreme236
5:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
there can not be a subtropical hurricane, as by the time they become hurricanes, they are tropical
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2007. mit5000
5:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 5:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Can there be a Sub-tropical Hurricane?


yeh- andrea this year was close to being 1!
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2006. NorthxCakalaky
5:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Can there be a Sub-tropical Hurricane?
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2005. Drakoen
4:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L will have to deal with dry air soon. It will have to get its act together fast.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
2004. TheCaneWhisperer
5:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Not much SAL to speak of caneman and if 96L rides low, shear is low as well.
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2003. sandcrab39565
11:57 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
National Hurricane Center

It seems that the NHC is failing to be open with the local levels of Emergency Management. The cloak seems to be up and the lack of information that is available to local decision makers is being shielded.
State Emergency Managers as a whole are no more trained in the field of Emergency Management as the local. If the truth be known most local EMA personnel are better trained. Being retired from the armed forces does not automatically make you knowledgeable about emergency management but however seems to have guaranteed a second career for many with a state retirement plan. NHC must get back to being in touch with the local EM managers so that the planning and preparedness has good facts to use as the tool required to prepare.

The failure to effectively communicate with the local EM opens the door for more political factors to be introduced. The facts are becoming more apparent the NOAA is using the big stick policy in how it allows the NHC to operate. Filtered and muted information is NOT what is needed to save lives. NHC MUST get someone that will interface with local communities and ignore politics.

State EMAs are only going to share what the state governor wants them to share. It is imperative that this not be allowed to happen. There is NO room in the need to protect lives and property for politics.

I also quite concerned about the new methods of classifications of tropical systems. I find it amusing that we are recently seeing such as “sub-tropical” and find this not warranted. The failure to be precise and informative leaves a lot of room to create the need to over prepare due to the lack of the true statistics and facts. The NHC Must be more active with information to the local levels!

The bottom line is politics are being factored into the way that the NHC is doing Business and this MUST be stopped immediately in order to do what is needed and intended. We all cannot be right all the time so political correctness is hurtful. There has been a big gap since the retirement of Max Mayfield this gap needs to be corrected before the next season begins.
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2002. mit5000
4:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
too many places where we could have a cyclone - it hurts my brain!
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2001. JLPR
4:55 PM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
looks like both 96l and 97l have upper level anticlones in top of them
shear shouldnt be a big problem
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2000. will40
12:53 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Nice update Drakoen . 96L could be a close call depending on the weakness of the ridge later on.
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1999. WeatherfanPR
4:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think 97L still looks very disorganized so right now is a weak system, there is a broad low level circulation for sure but the convection is not consolidating at all.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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