TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2099. StormJunkie
6:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Not a whole lot tigger, how's things out W?
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2098. BahaHurican
2:14 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:45 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Bahahurican can you provide a link for that please which includes the other charts like the 24 hour and the 72 hours...


Sure.

Ocean Prediction Center
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21633
2097. tiggeriffic
6:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Current Atlantic 700-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 1000-1010 mbs)
Courtesy of CIMSS Tropical Cyclones: Go back to top of page...


if this pic comes thru, 96 only has a small window of opportunity to swing to the north, if it misses, there may not be another one
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2096. icepilot
1:14 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Is 97 a TD now?

Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:00 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.


945
WHXX04 KWBC 231723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 23
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2095. extreme236
6:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L slowly but surely getting better organized...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2094. Drakoen
6:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Theres actually something to look at now.
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2093. tiggeriffic
6:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
howdy SJ, what's shakin?
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2092. Drakoen
6:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: CanePredictor at 6:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drakeon thanks for agreeing with me....I think 96L is close or @ depression status right now...Personally when do you believe the earliest this area could be deemed a depression?


96L is very close to depression status. The NHC is monitoring the convection.
97L is becoming better organized and a tropical depression could form tomorrow.
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2091. Weather456
2:10 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Thunderstorms developing near the center of 96L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2090. GPTGUY
1:09 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Well its funny how TD 10 was sooo overhyped by the media and it turned out that we barely got a quarter of an inch of rain and winds over 10 mph...and with the moisture from 94L streaming into the area I have already recorded 1.50" and a wind gust of 28 mph...I bet people in the FEMA trailers down here that had shelters opened for them friday night are thinkin what the hell do the weather guys know!!
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2089. StormJunkie
6:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Afternoon all :~)

Seems to be that almost all of the models are developing a fairly strong break in the high in the long term. Looks like 97 could scoot close tot he E coast before the front that creates the break in the high pushes through, but as of now, it is looking like there is a good chance 96 gets turned. All very preliminary, and jmho.
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2088. CanePredictor
6:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drakeon thanks for agreeing with me....I think 96L is close or @ depression status right now...Personally when do you believe the earliest this area could be deemed a depression?
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2087. Thundercloud01221991
6:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
55 W
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2086. stoormfury
6:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
taco,

depending on the strengh of the system,if it is strong enough it will come under the influence of the trough and take more of a wnw path. if it were to stay weak it will continue on a north of west track for few days in the central caribbean
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2085. tiggeriffic
6:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think that 96 isnt getting as much concern as 97 because 97 is much closer and more emminate (sp) threat to land. Also, isnt there a limit to how many miles away a recon plane will go?? Thought I read that or heard it on hurrican info somewhere...96 could just be too far away.
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2084. Drakoen
6:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: KRL at 6:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 5:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Not those models LOL. The GFS, CMC and NOGAPS model runs. Look at the 850mb vorticity, use the 950mb vorticity with the GFS.


How come the 950 with GFS Drak?


Closer to the Surface.
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2083. Drakoen
6:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SPECIAL FEATURE...
JERRY HAS BEEN BORN FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS. AT 23/1500 UTC THE
CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 36.0N 46.3W
OR ABOUT 930 NM W OF THE AZORES AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS A VERY BROAD CYCLONE WITH
SEVERAL SWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS ALSO BROAD AND NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH IR IMAGERY
SUGGESTING SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM SW AND 180 NM NE
QUADRANTS. A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE S OF
THE SYSTEM IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW
FOR JERRY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

A BROAD LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SFC LOW PRES AREA...ALONG
WITH EXTENSIVE SLY UPPER FLOW...IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE W CARIB NWD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 86W-91W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA.

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 54W/55W OR ABOUT
300 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180
NM OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING AND
IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550-600
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6.5N28W...ESTIMATED TO BE
1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY TO THE
N OF THE CENTER. LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY...STILL SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 400 NM N AND 90 NM
S SEMICIRCLES. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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2082. KRL
6:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 5:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Not those models LOL. The GFS, CMC and NOGAPS model runs. Look at the 850mb vorticity, use the 950mb vorticity with the GFS.


How come the 950 with GFS Drak?
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2081. Drakoen
6:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think 96L could be a depression as well. Needs to continue to organize like it is now. That surface trough to its north is creating a good outflow.
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2080. CanePredictor
6:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I thought for sure that 96L would beat 97L to depression status....96L is clearly a depression just look at it....Well by tomorrow morning 96L should also be a depression.
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2079. retaining1
5:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sandcrab: You said boldly that...

"...the NHC is failing to be open with the local levels of Emergency Management... lack of information that is available to local decision makers is being shielded."

"State Emergency Managers as a whole are no more trained in the field of Emergency Management as the local."

"NHC MUST get someone that will interface with local communities and ignore politics."

"State EMAs are only going to share what the state governor wants them to share."

I understand the point you are trying to make, however State decisions are inseparable from being a matter of politics.

1) State EMA are directly responsible to the governor for their areas. They report to the governor, give advice and carry out coordinated policies as directed.

2) If the State EMA personnel aren't trained properly, that is the State's problem. It has nothing to do with the NHC. If the people of a region are uncomfortable with their EMA performance, they have legal recourse. The NHC is not involved.

3) The NHC does NOT have to interface with local communities and provide information directly to every local leader. Nearly every community EMA monitors the NHC website during hurricane season.

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2078. taco2me61
5:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Stoormy,
Let me ask you a question.... Do you think once 97L gets past that area and gets to the central Carribean do you think it would go back to the right or east????? Just wondering....
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2077. hurricane23
5:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007

945
WHXX04 KWBC 231723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.9 55.0 280./11.1
6 11.8 55.8 316./12.0
12 11.8 57.8 271./19.5
18 12.1 58.2 310./ 4.6
24 12.5 59.7 286./15.1
30 13.5 60.3 326./11.4
36 14.3 61.4 309./12.7
42 14.3 62.2 267./ 7.8
48 14.9 62.8 315./ 9.1
54 15.6 62.8 359./ 6.7
60 16.8 63.5 331./13.6
66 17.5 64.0 326./ 8.8
72 18.0 64.9 297./ 9.4
78 18.1 65.6 281./ 7.0
84 18.2 66.1 276./ 5.2
90 18.3 67.0 277./ 8.1
96 18.3 67.8 271./ 7.5
102 18.6 68.4 297./ 7.1
108 18.9 68.9 300./ 5.3
114 19.1 69.6 286./ 6.4
120 19.5 70.1 303./ 6.4
126 19.8 70.9 294./ 8.1



Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
2076. Drakoen
5:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Yes thats the ramsdis floater which is only used by personal at cira.I have access to that floater but cant post images.Adrian


We can post them...
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2075. stoormfury
5:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
there again i cannot see 97L moving NW as a result of a trough to it's north.as i said before the global models have great difficulty in initialising such shallow systems. we have seen this so far this year and 97L will be no exception. the system willpass through the central windward islands and into the caribbean sea. there after the track is still uncertain.
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2074. hurricane23
5:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yes thats the ramsdis floater which is only used by personal at cira.I have access to that floater but cant post images.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
2073. Drakoen
5:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
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2072. Weather456
1:56 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Jerry becoming tropical and this indicated by the warm-core structure in the upper levels

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2071. Drakoen
5:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L

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2070. nrtiwlnvragn
5:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Recon on 97L tomorrow afternoon.
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2069. aspectre
5:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
NorthxCakalaky "Can there be a Sub-tropical Hurricane?"

Not sure if you asked the question that you meant to ask, so just in case:
[Hurricane] Maria weakened into a tropical storm on September 9 before finally becoming extratropical about midway between the Azores and Newfoundland early on September 10.
The extratropical system intensified considerably, achieving hurricane intensity once again on September 11 at about 52N, with a minimum pressure of 962 mbar (hPa) equal to its minimum pressure as a tropical cyclone. It passed just to the south of Iceland on September 13 as a hurricane-strength extratropical system (although the center stayed offshore).

Also in 2005, HurricaneVince started as a SubTropicalStorm then intensified into a hurricane in waters normally regarded as being too cold to support the creation of a hurricane.
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2068. JRRP
5:38 PM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
97L I THINK WILL AFECT DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
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2067. Drakoen
5:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
RAMDSDIS is the best. Thanks for sharing...
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2066. Weather456
1:49 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Drak, also it seems that this site is a part of the other one that doesnt offer west africa.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2065. Drakoen
5:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Weather456 at 5:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drak...could you believe that this site had the floater on 96L since it formed.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/


ROFLMAO. thats been there the whole time. (oblivious)
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2064. Weather456
1:46 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Drak...could you believe that this site had the floater on 96L since it formed. Just found it.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2062. Drakoen
5:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Weather456 how did you get that close up image???
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2061. Drakoen
5:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Bahahurican can you provide a link for that please which includes the other charts like the 24 hour and the 72 hours...
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2060. Weather456
1:44 PM AST on September 23, 2007
96L Infrared



Winds





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2059. 1900hurricane
12:44 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
96L

click for a loop
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2057. BahaHurican
1:39 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
And here is the 4 day forecast, i.e. Thursday.



It does look like the weakness in the ATL is expected to disappear by then.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21633
2056. Drakoen
5:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 5:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

well first off CMC doesnt show 97L, that system it has doing that is 96L

NOGAPS and GFS barely develops the system and initializes it poorly


also the steering doesnt show even a hint of a movement that would make this system do that


The CMC 12z run on the 850mb voriticty does show 97L. The NOGAPS and the GFS may be correct on a weak system.
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2055. eye
5:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
jp, look at the shear map, there is a reason what there is absolutely NOTHING on the west side of 94L...look at the Huge ULL up off the coast of Texas...part of the reason why 94l will be zooming is because that ULL is causing that. ULL and 94l are moving in tatum....the east part of 94l isnt being sheared because it isnt close to the ULL....but there is nothing on the W part for a reason. The dry dry dry sinking air....is due to the ULL. This is basic MEA jp....

Check the windshear maps....it isnt going to develop much at all, just a rain maker. the 30 to 40kts shear is off Texas, where this blob(if you can even call it blob worthy) is heading, and the ULL is in no hurry. If not for the ULL, 94l would have a chance of being something.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
2054. aubiesgirl
5:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
just got in from church..and Holy tropical depressions and invest!!!..the waters have exploded!!
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2053. BahaHurican
1:34 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Current NAtl analysis

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21633
2051. TexasHoosier
5:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
cchsweatherman, is that CV disturbance you refer to, actually 96L?

also, it looks like there is another one getting ready to pop off the West African Coast.

Interesting we have not see more of this in the last two months as reports say that rainfall and flooding in the 'zone across Africa, from Somalia to Uganda/Rwanda to Ghana has been the worst in 35 years....
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2050. denseypr
5:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
That would be a Marilyn type trajectory... across the winward and the leewards towards the virgin islands and PR...
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2049. benirica
5:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i think drak meant that its not going to be like Dean and Felix, because someone else had said that.
I dont think it will be a Dean or Felix either, none of the models have called for that, theres pretty good consensus on it being more to the north.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.