TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2149. beell
6:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Still see the naked little swirl/sfc low at 15N 45W as mentioned by StormW yesterday. Moving NW mostly. If nothing else, it's a guide to low level steering right there.
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2148. opbandman
1:33 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Storm J, How ya feelin?
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2147. swlouisianagirl
6:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I haven't heard much about 94L. Do yall think it will develop into anything?
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2146. StormJunkie
6:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I see what you are saying about 97 tigger, and I tend to agree that out of everything out there 97 would seem to be the one with the most potential to effect the CONUS.
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2144. Weather456
2:31 PM AST on September 23, 2007
With so many invests..its easy to get confuse

____________________________________________

Jerry has an eye-like feature

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2143. F1or1d1an
6:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well, looks like a long, wet drive back from Niceville to NOLA this evening...

What's the latest word on 94L - are they looking for a TX/LA line move ashore, or further west?
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2142. stoormfury
6:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
drak
you mean 97L
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2141. Drakoen
6:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: HouseofGryffindor at 6:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Drakoen, I think you mean 97L? 96 is the farthest invest out there.


I'm getting the invests confused LOL.
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2138. StormJunkie
6:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
tigger, I think that is what we would typically expect this time of the year with the high weakening and the troughs becoming stronger and stronger as we head towards winter.
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2136. OUSHAWN
6:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Eyewall,

I hate to disagree with you but 94L is nowhere close to getting its act together. Yes, there is quite a bit of storm activity in the central gulf but it is well away from the center of circulation of 94L.

Shawn
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2135. tiggeriffic
6:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
sj, look at that pic i referred to, tell me what you think
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2134. Drakoen
6:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
StormJunkie wait and see. Very concerned meaning keeping a watchful eye on the conditions especially with 97L, which is closer to land.
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2133. weathernutmet
6:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I understand 94L has a probability of strengthening. At the moment the rain coming in is what has me concerned. Is this a train effect happening? If so, how much rainfall can we expect? With all of the activity everywhere, I'm concerned about continuous rain and not much time between systems. I'm a little concerned about the next weak spot in our levee system around the N.O. area.
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2132. tiggeriffic
6:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
if 97 tracks over PR, (looking at history only no other factors) it would more likely miss the GOM...last seveal storms that either hit the island or north of it, most tracked the east coast, south of PR and it is more likely to hit GOM...I am no expert but the majority of the storms in history seem to have done that
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2131. StormJunkie
6:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drak, "very concerned" ???

Now I will give you that 96 and 97 could threaten the islands, and 96 could maybe threaten the E coast, but seems to me all of the models are telling us that there will be strong enough troughs moving through to create a significant weak spot in the ridge. If anything is to get in to the Carib or W Atlantic it seems to me that it is going to have to stay pretty far S so that the fronts have less effect on them?
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2130. Eyewall911
6:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L is looking pretty sick this afternoon. Doesn't look like it will amount to anything but rain for the central gulf coast. I just hope the rain gets to the places that need it and not to the places that don't.


Shawn 94l looks a whole lot better now than it did this morning and gathering covection rather quick. Don't count her out yet
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2128. stoormfury
6:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L is trying to form a closed circulation.if that trend continues then the system could become a depression earlier than tommorrow.recent sat pics is showing the system getting better organised. it would not be surprising that warning and watches go out as early as 11pm
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2127. hurricane23
2:25 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Here is the 12 GFDL animation....Brings a strong TS right over puerto rico.
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2126. Weather456
2:23 PM AST on September 23, 2007
DMAX will also bring 96L to TD status.
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2125. Drakoen
6:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

ok Drak you were right about the movement, my bad lol


Its ok.
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2124. extreme236
6:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
looks like STS jerry has developed a nice band on the southern quadrant extending northward
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2122. Eyewall911
6:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Gulf system getting it's act together

On the other hand all invest seem to be getting their act together. Amazing how things change so fast!!
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2121. Drakoen
6:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Two areas to be very concerned about.
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2120. OUSHAWN
6:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L is looking pretty sick this afternoon. Doesn't look like it will amount to anything but rain for the central gulf coast. I just hope the rain gets to the places that need it and not to the places that don't.

Shawn
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2119. Drakoen
6:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 6:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

are those some weak banding features with 97L drak?


yea. little bit of spiral banding. with emphasis on "little"
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2118. extreme236
6:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
dmax should really get 97L into full gear...but the NHC will be more on the ball with declaring 97L a depression due to its proximity to land
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2117. Drakoen
6:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
You can see the a basic track of the systems here.
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2116. tiggeriffic
6:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Not too bad, trying to get the little one to take a nap...

ok tried to bring a pic over from crownweather.com but it did not work, care to help? It is the 15th one down from the top...wind analysis of highs and lows
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2115. Weather456
2:20 PM AST on September 23, 2007
97L is developing a spin with some nice outflow and banding developing to the north and east respectively...an indicator of a building ridge over it.

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2114. extreme236
6:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
are those some weak banding features with 97L drak?
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2113. Drakoen
6:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Satellite presentation is much more impressive.
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2112. Joshfsu123
6:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L is continuing to become better organized. According to visible pictures, a center of circulation appears to be forming as well, just east of the heaviest thunderstorms. It's starting to develop some banding features and it could develop into something during the day tomorrow.

96L continues to become better defined and I would imagine should be a tropical depression probably sometime tomorrow. Plenty of time to watch it though.
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2111. hurricane23
6:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormyjm at 6:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

question from non-expert: Do any of you see 97 as possibly threatening the U.S.? Texas perhaps? That is what it looks like to me, but I could be way off.

Yes it has a good shot at affecting the U.S. if can avoid those big mountians.
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2109. CanePredictor
6:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L and 97L are both gradually organizing but in my opinion 96L looks most impressive...
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2108. neutrino006
06:17 PM GMT on septembrie 23, 2007
How many disturbances are right now at 36N or near, around the globe? I'm seeing 2: one of them is Jerry, and another over the Europe...
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2107. Eyewall911
6:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Gulf system getting it's act together
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2106. extreme236
6:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L isnt a depression is it? that one thing jsut calls them depressions right?
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2105. Drakoen
6:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
The tropics are really heating up.
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2104. stormyjm
6:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
question from non-expert: Do any of you see 97 as possibly threatening the U.S.? Texas perhaps? That is what it looks like to me, but I could be way off.
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2103. Weather456
2:18 PM AST on September 23, 2007
If the models bring 97L over PR..that means we in the leeward islands will be affected by it??
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2102. CanePredictor
6:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
tiggeriffic....a recon does not need to fly out to a system to deem it a depression.
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2101. WeatherfanPR
6:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
The new GFDL wants to track 97L crossing the entire island of Puerto Rico from east to west like Georges did back in 1998.

I don't think so!!!
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2100. hurricane23
6:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
New GFDL brings 97L right over puerto rico....

Recon for this system.

4. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 13.0N 60.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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2099. StormJunkie
6:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Not a whole lot tigger, how's things out W?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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