TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2199. extreme236
7:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
looks like 97L didnt want 96L to steal all the spotlight...its going to be a fight for the number and the name
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2198. StormJunkie
6:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 6:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

144hrs lol....Model skill begins drop of that far out.

yea that what i am trying to say...


Y'all are funny. Again, models are very iffy that far out concerning precise track, genesis, and intensity. That said, they do a pretty decent job of forecasting the general pattern. Especially when you have a consensus opinion. Hey I am just looking for some one to argue my points with data, but the only thing I am hearing is models are no good that far out and that is not data. Not to mention hearing this form folks who have posted 300+ hr forecasts.

I'll be watching the models to see how they trend in the coming days and if they pull a 180 and start to bridge the ridge, then will be much more concerned, but as of right now it seems that there a big exit stage right sign for most systems in the Atl.
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2197. aubiesgirl
7:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
By: SaymoBEEL at 6:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I have never seen this loop posted here. It is cool IMO. Wx Fronts Loop on Sat Image Loop



Link

hey thanks for postin that link..that really helped me out to understand things
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2195. GPTGUY
2:00 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Just to update you guys on the weather associated with 94L affecting the Central Gulf Coast...here in Gulfport just had a wind gust on my weather station to 32 mph and a rain rate of 6.12"/hr. now down to 2.20"/hr. and so far since midnight approching 2 inches
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2194. Txwxchaser
6:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I'm an amatuer at best at this, but I've been watching the tropics for 25 years. The way 96L & 97L are looking and with the info I digested so far today from this blog....i'm concerned. Seems to me, we've dodged bullets all year and my gut feeling is we'll have a CONUS landfall soon. I mean something significant...not to downplay Humberto or any of the others that have made landfall...I just feel something big is going to happen this year...no scientific proof from me guys...just my gut...but you can bet I'll be reading with great interests WU to see what the real pros on here think....gotta go watch my kiddos play some Futbol!!! Have a good one all!!!
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2192. groundman
6:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: pablolopez26 at 6:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
94, 96,and 97... Anyone want to take a stab at which one gets named first? Karen comes first... :)

Names:
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

96L Melissa in a day or so
94L Lorenzo tonight or in the morning
97L Karen today

I'll take my crow lightly braised as always if I have to eat it.
BUT I am one of the total idiots on here and I thought the season would ramp up too. Too hot, la nina, statistics say it should, things popping up for no good reason it seems, etc, etc.
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2191. Drakoen
6:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

144hrs lol....Model skill begins drop of that far out.


yea that what i am trying to say...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2189. hurricane23
2:54 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
144hrs lol....Model skill begins drop of that far out.
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2188. SaymoBEEL
6:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I have never seen this loop posted here. It is cool IMO. Wx Fronts Loop on Sat Image Loop



Link
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2187. Eyewall911
6:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
you will not see an east coast hurricane in October..because by the time one of the were to reach land it would be going into October...If any east coast would be hit it would be Florida and that would be south of Daytona Beach



OK
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2186. StormJunkie
6:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
That sounds about right to me tigger. Again, imho 97 poses the biggest threat to the CONUS.
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2185. Drakoen
6:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2184. tiggeriffic
6:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
sj,
where 97 goes will depend on how far out that carolina high comes to wouldn't it? where is that expected to be in comparison? remember i told you, i understand the symatics, just dont always know where to go to get the info yet
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2183. Drakoen
6:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
OK SJ. Lets hope they are right...(144 hours out)
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2182. CanePredictor
6:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think both 96L and 97L are unclassified depressions.
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2181. StormJunkie
6:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yes Drak, that is correct, 144hrs out. And when you are talking about genesis, or exact track, or intensity then 144hrs out is very iffy. We are not talking about that. We are talking about them all generally forecasting a weakness somewhere well east of the CONUS.
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2180. STSUCKS
1:46 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Ok East Coast talkers...If 96L or 97L does develop its going to do one of 3 things...1 go into Mexico/Central America...2 get into the Gulf via the Caribbean or over the Islands (ie Georges late Sept. 1998) 3 fish storm and recurve out to sea...you will not see an east coast hurricane in October..because by the time one of the were to reach land it would be going into October...If any east coast would be hit it would be Florida and that would be south of Daytona Beach
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2179. hurricane23
2:49 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Updated models for 96L....

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070923 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800 070925 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.1N 29.4W 7.9N 31.6W 8.8N 33.9W 9.7N 36.3W
BAMD 7.1N 29.4W 7.7N 31.6W 8.6N 33.7W 9.3N 35.8W
BAMM 7.1N 29.4W 7.8N 31.9W 8.8N 34.4W 9.5N 36.9W
LBAR 7.1N 29.4W 7.8N 32.3W 8.9N 35.5W 9.9N 38.7W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1800 070926 1800 070927 1800 070928 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 39.0W 12.7N 45.0W 15.7N 51.4W 18.5N 56.2W
BAMD 9.8N 37.8W 11.0N 42.0W 13.2N 45.7W 15.8N 48.2W
BAMM 10.0N 39.4W 11.3N 44.7W 13.8N 49.5W 16.8N 52.3W
LBAR 10.6N 41.8W 12.0N 47.2W 14.8N 50.7W 17.1N 54.9W
SHIP 63KTS 80KTS 86KTS 85KTS
DSHP 63KTS 80KTS 86KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.1N LONCUR = 29.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 6.2N LONM12 = 26.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 6.2N LONM24 = 23.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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2178. OUFan919
6:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L and 97L are looking very impressive right now
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2177. CanePredictor
6:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drakeon i agree. The tropics are heating up but i think alot of us more knowledgeable tropic geeks..(NO OFFENSE TO THE ONES THAT DONT KNOW AS MUCH) Were expecting a extremely busy late season....
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2176. Drakoen
6:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Interesting the BAM models go west into the Caribbean the more reliable models have it going NW.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2175. Weather456
2:47 PM AST on September 23, 2007
96L is filling up

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2174. opbandman
1:46 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Thanks 456.

Off to play nine holes, play nice (as MLC would say!)
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2173. hurricane23
2:48 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
BAM models go westward through the caribbean for 97L.
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2171. wederwatcher555
6:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i know 96l is too soon to tell but does 97L have a decent (50% or better) shot at hitting the states?
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2170. Eyewall911
6:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow Drak, did not expect you to be in the wait and see camp. Especially with most every model calling for a series of fairly strong troughs to come through.

Exactly, it's the troughs that scare me. 97L soon to be Karen if affected by those "troughs" will be pulled north possably into the gulf at somepoint.
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2169. Drakoen
6:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SJ you are talking about conditions 144 hours out. Lets wait and see.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2168. pablolopez26
6:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L is going to have to get a name.. With it coming so close to the GOM states... I say it comes ashore a weak TS Lorenzo... Now about future Karen (97L)... Can someone post a historical for this time of year, in terms of steerage for storms forming this far south...
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2167. StormJunkie
6:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
With 97 I agree JP, imho it has the best chance of missing the weakness.That said, the weakness in the ridge created by the last trough and current Jerry should allow 96 to begin northward movement past 55.

CMC 144hr
CMC long term

GFS 144hr
GFS 168 hrs

Ukmet 144hr
Ukmet 144hr

Here you can see the weakness that all three of these models are forecasting.
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2166. hurricane23
6:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Updated models for 97L...

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1841 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070923 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800 070925 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 56.4W 11.7N 58.7W 12.9N 61.1W 14.2N 63.3W
BAMD 10.9N 56.4W 11.4N 58.3W 12.2N 60.3W 13.0N 62.4W
BAMM 10.9N 56.4W 11.4N 58.7W 12.3N 61.1W 13.5N 63.5W
LBAR 10.9N 56.4W 11.3N 58.6W 12.1N 60.9W 13.2N 63.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1800 070926 1800 070927 1800 070928 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 65.5W 17.0N 69.9W 17.8N 74.7W 18.3N 79.6W
BAMD 13.7N 64.5W 14.6N 68.6W 15.3N 72.8W 16.2N 77.1W
BAMM 14.8N 65.7W 16.1N 70.4W 16.8N 75.9W 17.9N 81.3W
LBAR 14.2N 65.8W 15.1N 70.7W 16.7N 75.9W 18.7N 79.4W
SHIP 53KTS 65KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 53KTS 65KTS 73KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 56.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 53.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 51.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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2165. Weather456
2:45 PM AST on September 23, 2007
BTW, has the sun set on 96L yet?

in about 1 hours time.
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2164. opbandman
1:42 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Pablo, my vote is 96L, JMO.

But with 97L closer to land, it could go to either.

BTW, has the sun set on 96L yet?
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2163. pablolopez26
6:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
My guess is 97 becomes Hurricane Karen (soon), 94 becomes a weak TS Lorenzo, and for now thats what i think..
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2162. destruction4u
1:38 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Great job Storm W
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2161. Melagoo
6:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Watching 97 on the loop looks like it's ready to explode

97 LOOP
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2160. pablolopez26
6:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94, 96,and 97... Anyone want to take a stab at which one gets named first? Karen comes first... :)

Names:
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
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2159. Drakoen
6:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2158. opbandman
1:38 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Storm J, Glad to hear it, need you energized and ready to go this week, could be busy!
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2157. Weather456
2:39 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Channel 6-350mb

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2155. pablolopez26
6:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think the NHC says there is potential for development with 94L, and may send a reconnaissance aircraft into it later this afternoon for further investigation. I think the GFDL and the HWRF models do not develop 94L even into a tropical depression before it moves ashore.
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2153. Weather456
2:37 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Here's some more data that suggest jerry becoming tropical

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2152. StormJunkie
6:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Much better opb, thanks! Still a little scratchy and congested, but again, feeling much better!
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2151. KRL
6:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wind Shear
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2150. StormJunkie
6:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow Drak, did not expect you to be in the wait and see camp. Especially with most every model calling for a series of fairly strong troughs to come through.
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2149. beell
6:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Still see the naked little swirl/sfc low at 15N 45W as mentioned by StormW yesterday. Moving NW mostly. If nothing else, it's a guide to low level steering right there.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.