TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2249. StormJunkie
7:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I am with you tigger, and again, I know there is a lot of wait and see. Just wanted to debate both sides of the fence as it will help me better understand what the future model runs show.
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2248. BahaHurican
3:27 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
tigg, strength might also play a role in whether it's picked up.

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2247. extreme236
7:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
well the SAB runs dvorak but so does the TAFB, but I dont know where to find that dvorak info
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2246. Eyewall911
7:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good point mississippi
2245. extreme236
7:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: mississippiwx23 at 7:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I agree, dvorak numbers of only 1.0 are not going to convince the NHC to designate it.


I think if it went up to 1.5 then it would be a TD
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2244. extreme236
7:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L still needs more organization for it to become a depression, kind of looks like a slug right now, but its better looking that it has the last several hours
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2243. mississippiwx23
7:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I agree, dvorak numbers of only 1.0 are not going to convince the NHC to designate it.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
2242. nrtiwlnvragn
7:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
aspectre

1) NHC actual storm track graphic, also showing intensity and wind swath. Link
2) NHC archive of previous projected storm path. Link

Both are on the website, available after each advisory is issued.
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2241. extreme236
7:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Is there a link to the TAFB dvorak numbers? or is that just something the nhc can see?
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2240. Drakoen
7:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
the NOGAPS 12z model agrees with the GFDL ON 97L's track. A with 96L it has it moving Northwest then WNW almost like the GFS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
2239. extreme236
7:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: mississippiwx23 at 7:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Currently, deep convection is really lacking in both systems (96 and 97). This might be one of the reasons the NHC is holding back. They might be waiting for the convection to increase again later to see what structure develops. I fully expect the NHC to send in a HH for 97L tomorrow. The satellite loops is shown below:


Maybe so, but Jerry lacks any deep convection and I have seen several systems this year develop without the deep convection...maybe the nhc is waiting for dvorak numbers to increase for 96L
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2238. tiggeriffic
7:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SJ, go to crownweather.com, 15th pic down has where a weakness is that could pic up the storm, only prob right now is that is such a small window of opportunity, and where the GFDL has 96 going, the hole is 3 - 5 degrees north of where they think the storm will be. If the storm is compact it could miss it. Looks like the size of the storm will be the biggest factor followed by that hole dropping..
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2237. extreme236
7:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
GFDL currently brings 97L up to 61kts and 96L to 64kts

HWRF brings 97L to 35kts and 96L to 58kts
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2236. mississippiwx23
7:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Currently, deep convection is really lacking in both systems (96 and 97). This might be one of the reasons the NHC is holding back. They might be waiting for the convection to increase again later to see what structure develops. I fully expect the NHC to send in a HH for 97L tomorrow. The satellite loop is shown below:

Satellite Loop
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
2235. extreme236
7:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Major models developing our systems:

-94: AVNO (GFS), HWRF

-96: GFDL, HWRF, NGPS

-97L: AVNO, GFDL, HWRF
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2234. StormJunkie
7:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Eye, that is a distinct possibility, and that is basically what I have been discussing. Seems that 97 has the best chance to miss the weakness. Also if 96 does hit the weakness then I would think it would amplify the weakness for anything behind it.

I am just playing devil's advocate here and trying to get some one to convince me that the models are missing something, resulting in 96 not getting turned.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
2233. JLPR
7:20 PM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
when did our little tropical low now 96l
became so large? wow
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2232. Drakoen
7:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
they have the same wind speeds.
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2230. extreme236
7:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L slowly moving into the catl view...about a little more than half way in
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2229. CanePredictor
7:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L is certainly a depression, Good outflor and nice organized COC with heavy convection....Whats taking the NHC so long to deem it a depression....If they dont declare it now...It will end up being Tropical Storm Karen and they will skip depression status.
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2228. JLPR
7:18 PM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
according to that pick drak
97l has stronger winds that 96l?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
2227. Weather456
3:16 PM AST on September 23, 2007
97L becoming better organize

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2226. tiggeriffic
7:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
right now the hole that can pick up 96 is at 20, 55 and the models put it at at about 17, 55, if that high pulls up it may not pick the storm up and out to the fishes
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2225. extreme236
7:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
im surprised T#'s with 96L didnt rise
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2224. Drakoen
7:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
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2223. extreme236
7:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
ST2.5/2.5 JERRY -- Atlantic Ocean

T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean
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2222. extreme236
7:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
the NHC is a little too conservative with some of these EATL systems...if this system was near the antilles right now we would already be looking at a TD...but oh well, plenty of time to watch it
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2221. Weather456
3:14 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Tropical Storm Francisco..lol....soon they may have Tropical Storm Tampa.



Spongebob
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2220. Eyewall911
7:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sjunkie 97L is way south and will be past that weakness in the ridge. Don't see the ridge playing a role with soon to be karen. 96L is a different story
2219. BahaHurican
3:07 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
That loop Saymobile posted made me wonder:

Is there anywhere around a map that superimposes the Mid/Upper systems over the surface level ones? Perhaps with like different colours or something?

I'm just thinking how much easier it would be so see steering trends etc. if we were looking at one map rather than 3.
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2218. Hellsniper223
7:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drak, thanks for all the image posts. I'm thinking that that'll be a depression tomorrow atleast.
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2217. StormJunkie
7:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Not yet tigger, maybe tonight! :~) dreading the vinegar part of it :~( lol
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2216. extreme236
7:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
wow, Francisco already has 45kt 10-min sustained winds
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2215. StormJunkie
7:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well said Baha, and I agree with you on 97. And that may honestly be a big factor in determining what becomes of 96. If 97 did get turned then it would likely leave a gapping hole for 97. If it does not then 97 would likely have a smaller hole to work with.
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2214. tiggeriffic
7:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
btw, the last time i checked, these storms did not travel with a calendar, Hugo was at the end of september, and i am sure that if conditions were right, 1 - 2 weeks off that date would not mean a hill of beans to a storm
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2213. Drakoen
7:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Excellent satellite presentation for a invest. Extremely impressive.
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2212. extreme236
7:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Now this is some intense convection (Francisco):

image
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2211. aspectre
7:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
retaining1 "The NHC does NOT have to interface with local communities and provide information directly..."
is true in the legalistic sense, however
"Nearly every community EMA monitors the NHC website during hurricane season."
isn't as useful as it should be in the practical sense.
1) The NHC track does not contain the extremely-simple-to-do actual track of the storm. It contains only the last NHC-reported position&strength and the projected future-path&strength
2) It does not have an extremely-simple-to-do archive of previously projected future-paths&strengths of that same storm.

Both of which would help tremendously in evaluating the information that the NationalHurricaneCenter does release.
And there is a LOT more storm info available that should be released on a single publicly-accessible NHC site. I mean good grief, the serious-amateurs on this forum do a better job at providing facts for evaluation than the NHC.

Then there is how totally scattered (and sometimes misleading) the info is on the storm advisories. Ya'd expect a 4th grader to be able to arrange such info into more easily readable coherence.
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2209. Drakoen
7:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
2208. BahaHurican
2:57 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
144=12x12= 6 days from now, right?

That time frame doesn't seem to be logical for 97l. Six days from now it's possible for it to be near or at wherever it's likely to end up in terms of continental landfall. I don't view this one has harmlessly looping out to sea in the long run, regardless of strength.

96l, OTOH, which still has the entire CAtl to run before it runs into land, might be more likely to run into a trough. However, the high pressure systems forecast for this week seem to be hanging kinda low in the CATL, so it may not gain sufficient latitude during that time to be captured by one of them.

I don't think we will see signicant N or NWward movement with either of these storms before, say, Wednesday.
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2207. extreme236
7:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
we should be getting some new dvorak ratings soon...I imagine 96L's should go up to about 1.5...I would also like to see some dvorak run on 97L
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2205. StormJunkie
7:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Now NP, that type of scenario seems reasonable. If anything can stay far enough S until it gets past the weakness then I would think it would have a better chance of threatening the Carib and the Conus.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
2203. SaymoBEEL
7:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Aubiesgirl, My pleasure
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2202. NeverPanic
7:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
eye911
Hurricane Hazel (10/5 - 10/18/1954)
Never say never.
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2201. Drakoen
7:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
2200. StormJunkie
7:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Noticed that too STL. That said, what is your take on the ridge?
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2199. extreme236
7:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
looks like 97L didnt want 96L to steal all the spotlight...its going to be a fight for the number and the name
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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