TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2299. youradjuster
8:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
They only fly a recon flight when they know they will have enough fuel to make it home. These storms are toooooo far out yet for recon
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2298. Weather456
4:08 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2297. Bobbyweather
4:09 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
IT'S BLANK again.

Do any of you know when recon are going to go in the invests besides 94L.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
2296. TheCaneWhisperer
8:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hopefully it catches 97L also 456. It seems to have a well defined circulation this afternoon, just needs some more convection.
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2295. StormJunkie
8:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Just a lazy Sunday afternoon FR, leads to a slow blog!

Baha, maybe a shared outflow channel? Not sure?
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2294. Weather456
4:06 PM AST on September 23, 2007
tonight's quikscat pass has a good chance of catching 96L.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2293. FitzRoy
8:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I've answered my own question lol - I'll shut up now!
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2292. Bobbyweather
4:07 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
FitzRoy, I don't know. Since I came, everybody stopped coming.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
2291. BahaHurican
4:03 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
So I posted the pic that caught my eye in the message above.

The "cord" I'm talking about is that white arc which looks to me as if it's a bit higher than the regular ITCZ convection. This was about this time yesterday, I think. I thought at first ITCZ, too, but the cloud composition even looks a bit different.

Any further thoughts?
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2290. StormJunkie
8:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
lol, Thanks Fitz :~)
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2289. TheCaneWhisperer
8:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sure did Bobby. It currently has winds of 30mph and is not loosing steam this afternoon. I would say, if quikscat catches 96L tonight and shows a closed cirulation we'll have TD12.
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2288. FitzRoy
8:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Is something wrong with the blog? No new posts in past 7 minutes?
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2287. Bobbyweather
3:58 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Did anyone notice the TCFA for 96L?
Also, when do you think each invest is going to form at? Yes, it can be today.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
2286. BahaHurican
3:48 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Drak, I think I figured out how to post the pic I was looking at.

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2285. FitzRoy
7:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I'm just too slow SJ - you beat me to it lol!
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2284. FitzRoy
7:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Invest = area to be investigated.

For models (including an excellent video tute) go to Storm Junkie's site:

http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.html

http://www.stormjunkie.com/training/fsutraining_1/fsutraining_1.html

Sorry that you'll have to cut and paste these URL's - I can't post links properly any more!
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2283. TheCaneWhisperer
7:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 7:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Hopefully the evening QS will hit both of these systems


Curious myself! They both seem to have pretty well defined surface circualtions now. 96L is obvious and 97L seems to be picking up some steam this afternoon.
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2282. StormJunkie
7:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Invest are areas that are being investigated for development. The NRL site under imagery on that link I just posted is usually where we find info on invests and they are usually the first to declare invests.
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2281. Sfloridacat5
7:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What's currently going on with 97L. It has explosive convection to its South. But to the NorthWest it looks like outflow.
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2279. redwagon
7:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I'm wishcasting 94L into TX but I don't think that'll happen.
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2277. LesterNessman
7:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
First-timer here with a couple questions.

What is an "Invest"?

Where can I get access to a larger sample of computer models than the 4 or 5 WeatherUnderground usually features and which are usually the most (and least) reliable?

Thanks for the help!
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2276. DocBen
7:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Think the overnight d-max will give us three named storms?
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2275. TexInsAgent
7:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Extreme...looks like 94 is going to bring alot of rain to areas that need it. What about the chances of Texas getting in the mix
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2274. Drakoen
7:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I'm guessing your looking at this.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
2272. Drakoen
7:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: BahaHurican at 7:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

An interesting aside: While looking at EUMETSAT's 24-hour loop of the CATL, I noticed, right at the beginning of the loop, what seems like an "umbilical cord" of high level clouds running from 97L's outflow to 96L. I'm wondering if somehow moisture from 97L could be "priming" 96L . . . I'd never noticed such an effect before, btw.


Thats belt is the ITCZ....
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
2271. tiggeriffic
7:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
any such thing as twin storms? I know tornados can do it
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2270. Chicklit
7:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L seems to be fairly rapidly getting a 'pinwheel' shape.
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2269. extreme236
7:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
be back in a bit
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2268. extreme236
7:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L

image
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2267. BahaHurican
3:38 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
An interesting aside: While looking at EUMETSAT's 24-hour loop of the CATL, I noticed, right at the beginning of the loop, what seems like an "umbilical cord" of high level clouds running from 97L's outflow to 96L. I'm wondering if somehow moisture from 97L could be "priming" 96L . . . I'd never noticed such an effect before, btw.
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2266. tiggeriffic
7:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok, 94 is going to leave plenty of moisture, if 97 heads west, south of PR, that does not leave a very big hole for 96 to be picked up right? If 97 gets picked up to the n and ne, then the hole for 96 just got massive where as right now it only has a 3 degree n and a few hour opportunity to find it, after that, 96 is dependant upon the carolina high pulling completely off the coast and leaving a gap for 96 to skirt the east coast
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2265. extreme236
7:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
96L

image
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2264. StormJunkie
7:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hopefully the evening QS will hit both of these systems
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2263. JLPR
7:38 PM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
well im signing off
coming back tonight to see how our two interesting invests look(96l and 97l)
and the one in the gulf also (94l)
byebye
:P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
2262. extreme236
7:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
850mb vorticity shows a weak vorticity in the central gulf under that convection
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2261. StormJunkie
7:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Another think to keep in mind is what happens with 94. If 94, no matter what it is, gets caught up in the next front then it would likely amplify it creating a larger chance of 97 and 96 getting turned?
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2260. Drakoen
7:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
2259. extreme236
7:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I think Jerry will become fully tropical....the convection is already closer to the center than it has been all day
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2258. sporteguy03
7:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
In my honest opinion anything can happen in the tropics
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2257. tiggeriffic
7:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SJ,

I agree with playing devil's advocate, I am trying to see if it can or will be picked up...lets face it, hugo muscled thru things and got stronger with extreme forward speeds, some storms basically do what they want regardless of what history or the computers say they should do, LOL
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2256. extreme236
7:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
an on the 850mb vorticity map, 97L's vorticity seems to have become stronger
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2255. JLPR
7:34 PM GMT on Septiembre 23, 2007
umm the deep convection is coming back tonight ill bet 97l will sure look better tonight at 11pm
and 96l also
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
2254. Drakoen
7:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
2253. BahaHurican
3:32 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Wonder if Jerry will turn [tropical, I mean] before that monster of a baroclinic low swallows him whole . . .

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2252. extreme236
7:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
a nice anticyclone is over 97L...im thinking thats what is helping aid it in its slow organization
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2251. extreme236
7:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I see lots of decreasing shear in the atlantic again
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2250. tiggeriffic
7:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
NOGAPS runs on the 1, 2, 3 tho, GFDL has been more reliable and consistant.
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2249. StormJunkie
7:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I am with you tigger, and again, I know there is a lot of wait and see. Just wanted to debate both sides of the fence as it will help me better understand what the future model runs show.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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